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korrents.com
Most people who complete a PhD today will not land a tenure-track or tenured position, and the odds keep shrinking.Their words
If you hold a PhD today, your chance of having a tenure-track or tenured position is about 10% and falling.
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20 September
19 September
18 September
17 September
16 September
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Their words
Around the time liberalism gave way to "progressivism", people on the left started being wrong about a ton of stuff. Back in 2010, Democrats were right about maybe 85% of things. Now it's like...30%? With Republicans at maybe 15%?
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Technology is making everyone richer, as illustrated by lighting costs falling over 1000x.Their words
One data point in technology making everyone richer: the cost of lighting has decreased by over 1000x.
11 September
10 September
9 September
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Their words
while the money premium from college is falling, the friends and marriage premium from college is going up and probably will rise further still.
7 September
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Their words
If you're lamenting writing code by hand like something you love is being taken away from you, see if you can fall in love with solving problems instead. Maybe you'll find out that's what you really loved the whole time
4 September
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Their words
It's the first time we have a unification of pixel generation and pixel reconstruction. In the world of computer vision this field has been around for more than half a century.
3 September
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Their words
We are going to keep doing this ‘omg the new Chinese model is so good, America is cooked’ cycle for a while. Best get used to it.
31 August
29 August
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Their words
I read every DM people send me, even if I don’t reply to all. I’m constantly learning about new ideas, ways to improve our product, where we’re falling short, who could join our company next, where to invest… very grateful for the @x platform.
28 August
26 August
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Their words
I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we're planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shades, I don't know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there's a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future
23 August
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korrents.com
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.Their words
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
21 August
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
20 August
From one piece From Restoring Sight to Reimagining the Brain, with Max Hodak 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Concepts are represented with strikingly similar geometry inside large AI models and inside brains.Their words
And so when you look inside these big AI models, the mathematical objects that you see look a lot like the things that you see in neuroscience. So if you look at how do how do these AI models represent um just like represent concepts and you look at the parts of the brain that represent concepts, you see these you see very similar geometry.
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korrents.com
The most fertile way to study neuroscience today is to work on AI models rather than on brains.Their words
Well, I mean ironically it's probably working on AI.
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Their words
The main cause of falling fertility globally over the last 200 years has been declining child mortality.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
17 August
From one piece Neuroscience of Emotions & Tools for Improving Emotion Regulation | Dr. Ralph Adolphs 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So rather than thinking of death as we normally do as the world loses you, the neuroscience perspective is the inverse which is you lose the world.
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Their words
And the other question is if you tie emotion to the the conscious experience of emotion, that is you equate you conflate emotions with feelings. Well, then you're not studying emotions, you're studying consciousness.
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korrents.com
The most fertile way to study neuroscience today is to work on AI models rather than on brains.Their words
I'd bet we learn more about our own brains from building a thousand AIs under a real theory of intelligence than we've learned from a century of neuroscience.
15 August
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Their words
Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy empirically. If you look at the amount of power generated versus the amount amount of deaths, um it's even safer than solar, which is very strange because how does someone die from solar? that actually most solar is installed on roofs and people sometimes die falling off of a roof installing solar and if you add those deaths up it is actually a higher death per energy than the totality of nuclear energy in the world.
14 August
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korrents.com
Even a poor sixteen-colour palette earns its keep, because colour is what lets someone tell things apart at a glance.Their words
And color, even if 16 colors, and some of them weren't very good colors, but it was still so nice to have to be able to use red for alerts and to differentiate at a glance a little easier when you had color as another option.
3 August
2 August
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Their words
Top-down works well if leadership is good enough to be in the weeds and be specifically correct. I think where it falls apart is where you don't actually know ground truth and then you attempt to manage people from above and that's where I think the term micromanagement comes from.
28 July
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Their words
I think startups tend to win when um the sort of like technology landscape is moving very quickly. uh when costs are coming down when cycle times are short and all of those things are happening right now.
26 July
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Their words
I'm seeing a trend here of declining revenue and traffic with indiehackers On my own projects too Maybe big VC products too but I wouldn't know cause they don't share revenue To me it seems clear BigAI is cannibalizing everything that used to be apps
14 July
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Wrong NumberTheir words
Following along as he picks data fallacies apart is a lot of fun, and I can't wait to read the whole book.
11 July
6 July
30 June
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Their words
To real estate professionals, slowing growth or declines in rent are often signals to stop building new housing.
Some Things YIMBYs Tend To Get Wrong (and Right)strongtowns.org
23 June
16 June
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korrents.com
A very long life would not grow boring, because pleasures spaced far enough apart do not wear out.Their words
There are things that we naturally take pleasure in—such as friendship, sex, and Italian food—and while we can become sick of anything if continually exposed to it in large doses, we don’t get tired of these things if they are properly distributed in time.
Immortality Sounds Pretty Good, Actuallysmallpotatoes.paulbloom.net
11 June
7 June
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Their words
Make sure you're not trying to addict your users. And if anybody is, there's always other jobs, and there's always other better companies. And don't chase the money for tearing apart what it is, the fabric of the society that we built.
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
things have to go really wrong for us to like just get over the threshold of uh you know, capital being productive enough to automate lots of work, but not be productive enough that that the interest rate is high and or the price of capital produced goods is falling a lot, okay? So, even without redistribution, a little bit of savings will save a lot of people.
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Their words
here prices are adjusting in this interesting way that too many macro models don't allow for, right? So, that what what a what's happening is what would be called investment specific technical change where yeah, the price of capital is like falling relative to the price of consumption instead of like the standard doing the standard macro thing of saying there's just output.
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Their words
the capital stock could grow quickly, but the price of capital goods relative to consumption goods could be falling faster than the capital stock is growing.
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Their words
They just recently released a report, and I think like you really have to squint to see anything happening. Like basically, if you want to take kind of like uh an an approach across the entire economy and looking at even looking at like software engineering, like the most exposed sort of sectors, there's just like not really anything going on. There might be a little bit of a signal about like junior developers getting jobs less than before, and that but that's like a less than before rather than a level shift.
26 May
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Their words
It just is marriage. Turkish fertility started falling super fast after 2013 because Turkish marriage rates started falling super fast after 2013.
8 May
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Their words
there's as populations become more apart, there begins to be biological incompatibilities rapidly developing, probably as the square of the distance separation, because you need pairs of interacting genes, and therefore it's the square of the separation.
29 April
20 April
15 April
From one piece Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Between Hopper and Blackwell from the transistors themselves, call it 75%. It was 3 years apart. 75%. Blackwell is 50 times hopper. My point is architecture matters.
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Their words
Pick your ASIC team where you can say I can bet the farm of I can bet my entire business that you will be here for me every single year. Your cost, your token cost will decrease by an order of magnitude every single year. I can count on it like I can count on the clock.
7 April
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Their words
Um I think another similarity is I mean, the core notions uh behind Agile and extreme programming are solid and good, but a huge snake oil industry appeared around it, the Agile industrial complex as I like to refer to it. Um and that will happen. That is happening with AI right now, and it's often hard to see the difference between where is the snake oil and where is the real stuff.
6 April
From one piece The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
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Their words
This makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
1 April
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Their words
Complacency is death. I mean like every the world will move faster and faster and the moment we stand still we are falling behind.
23 March
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Their words
You know, our computer price is going up, but our token generation effectiveness is going up so much faster that token cost is coming down. It's just coming down an order of magnitude every year.
13 March
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Their words
So when you look at inference at let's say 100 tokens a second for deepseek and kimk 2.5 hopper versus blackwell the performance difference is on the order of 20x
13 February
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Their words
But but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
31 October 2025
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Their words
I think the power and money corrupted him in the end as well, but I also think that there’s something fundamentally anti-human about people who want to build utopias or paradises or heavens, because what they’re saying is, “I like humans apart from the bad bits.”
21 September 2025
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Their words
used to be let's say in the Google world right I knew you were interested in shopping if you click the shopping tab I know you're interested in maps if you click the maps tab, we can measure clicks. Today, it's just all conversation. And so, it's actually harder for us to tease apart what is the user intent.
31 July 2025
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Their words
Later, Genghis Khan will realize once he becomes Chinggis Khan, he will realize that the true source of most of the feuding on the steppe is over women. And later he will outlaw the kidnapping of women and the sale of women, in part not only because of what had happened to his mother, but what happened to him next in his life.
22 July 2025
15 July 2025
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Their words
the key point is that as child mortality declines, live births can be allowed to decline without changing desired family size
There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com
1 July 2025
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korrents.com
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.Their words
My qualitative research has taught me one thing: culture is malleable! So surely this issue is fixable!
14 June 2025
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Their words
If something holds 99.99% of the time, that's good enough for most things. But mathematicians are one of the few people who really care about whether really 100% of all situations are covered by it.
5 May 2025
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Their words
To be falling. That is the purest experience of gravity. The experience of gravity, unfettered, uninterrupted by atoms is weightlessness.
15 April 2025
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Their words
First and foremost: Perfect scores should be vanishingly rare. Instead of clumping the best candidates together, you should be able to clearly distinguish the 99th percentile from the 99.9th, 99.99th, and so on.
7 March 2025
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Their words
In a vibe coding future, companies will hopefully invest more in understanding user needs, refining the interface, and polishing details that delight users, because those are harder for AI to get right without guidance.
20 February 2025
From one piece Why are Marriage & Fertility Plummeting in MENA? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But over the past 50 years, there has been a massive decline in fertility. This entails fewer cousins of a suitable age.
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korrents.com
Where men and women are kept apart, couples form late because it is hard to find somebody you actually like.Their words
With few opportunities to mix and mingle, charm and bond, it’s difficult to find someone one actually likes.
27 December 2024
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
SupercommunicatorsTheir words
A simple and tested method for communicating and connecting with anyone, Supercommunicators is an exploration of the psychology and neuroscience of communication — and how to use those skills at work, home and in life.
1 November 2024
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Their words
Nicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
11 October 2024
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Their words
Another manifestation of the lack of sufficiently abstract, formal reasoning in LLMs is the way in which performance often fall apart as problems are made bigger.
24 August 2024
14 July 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
AmphetamineTheir words
Amphetamine super useful when you want to prevent your system from falling asleep
3 July 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
Falling LeavesTheir words
Falling Leaves (Finland) 3.4 A characteristic Kaurismaki film. Like Wes Anderson, his films have a certain look and a sly sense of humor. Like Ozu, he makes the same film over and over again.
22 April 2024
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Their words
Remember space and time are parts of one unified space-time, the location of the singularity in the black hole is not the middle of space, but our future. It is a moment of time. It is like a big crunch.
8 April 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Idea of the Brain: The Past and Future of NeuroscienceTheir words
This is a great book for anyone interested in learning about neuroscience—and I’d recommend it as well for many of my more neuro-crazed psychology professor colleagues.
6 March 2024
4 March 2024
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Their words
The elites would be integrated, and the empire was based on the state loyalty and the state integration. But once you bring in the factor of nation and nationalism and language, then, once in a sudden, the whole model of the integration of the elites, irrespective of their language, religion, and culture, starts falling apart.
17 January 2024
From one piece Five Fertility Fails 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
They do not want to give such enemies the satisfaction of admitting they have a point.
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korrents.com
Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all.Their words
And they don’t see a need for a plan B, in case their forecast fails.
11 October 2023
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Their words
Per doubling of production, costs have fallen a consistent 30-40% since 1970, but it’s only in the last few years that this price has become competitive with legacy electricity generation
20 April 2023
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korrents.com
Removing your own ability to retreat is how you make yourself follow through on a hard change.Their words
I forbid myself from anything too tempting or addicting. I keep no cookies in my home. To prevent myself from falling off the wagon, I strap myself to the mast.
22 March 2023
15 July 2022
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Their words
In order to move this army or sustain it in place it is thus necessary to ensure a massive and relatively continuous supply of food to the army. Failure to do that will result in the army falling apart long before it comes anywhere close to the enemy.
11 May 2022
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Their words
There’s a reasonable amount of evidence that housing prices tend to adjust to match regional incomes.
22 March 2022
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korrents.com
Oil demand will fall mainly because petrol cars get driven less, not because they are replaced by electric ones.Their words
Falling consumer oil demand looks much more like driving the Camry 6000 miles per year instead of 12,000 miles rather than a shiny new electric car in every garage or robot taxis swarming everywhere.
11 September 2021
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korrents.com
Falling fertility is transmitted by the values that mass media spread, not by how rich any individual is.Their words
It seems to be correlated strongly with societal (not individual) wealth, and mediated by norms transmitted via mass media.
31 May 2021
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
IconoclastsTheir words
I read this because I was curious what sets the greatest entrepreneurs apart from everyone else? Where do they get their inspiration and how did they do it? While this book isn't completely satisfying, it does provide a number of interesting insights into the likes of Steve Jobs and other such icons.
1 October 2020
Nothing matches.
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