Whether American teenagers should be harassed after 10 p.m. by engagement-baiting push notifications ought to be a matter for Congress, not the social media cartel.
Um, but actually the median business, uh, is doing better this year than a year ago. Um, and so and then if we kind of, um, stratify and look at the probability that any given business will reach some revenue threshold, a million dollars, five million dollars, 10 million dollars, whatever, um, those all seem to be getting better.
I will say that the best evidence we have just says in reality don't be deficient. If you can reach that threshold of not being deficient or insufficient, maybe that's enough.
things have to go really wrong for us to like just get over the threshold of uh you know, capital being productive enough to automate lots of work, but not be productive enough that that the interest rate is high and or the price of capital produced goods is falling a lot, okay? So, even without redistribution, a little bit of savings will save a lot of people.
We made this something useful for adults and we had this user pay model that could monetize your engagement instead of trying to show you an ad and getting you to leave the game to go somewhere else. It actually the more engaged you were, the more likely you were to, you know, spend money.
the likelihood of inspiring someone to build a competitor was too high, and the return on sharing was too low to justify the exposure. That threshold has effectively collapsed to zero.
but ice sort of forms through a process of random nucleation and then extension. And this is cool because you can uh modulate the like sort of nucleation the rate of nucleation and extension to then modulate the probability of ice formation.
that work is not being wasted. It's just being stored. You know, it's kind of like complaining about heating an ice cube up a little bit and it not melting yet. It's like, well, you just haven't hit the phase transition. So, but that's where people give up.
With AI, breakout times could conceivably be very short - it could be hours, minutes, or even seconds for some very specific but important change to occur.
And what Lee’s been able to show in the lab with his team is that for organic chemistry, it’s about 15 steps. And then you only see molecules that the only molecules that we observe that are past that threshold are ones that are in life.
It just predicts what you are likely to re-Tweet and like, and linger on. That’s what all these algorithms do. It’s what Tik-Tok does, it’s what all these recommendation engines do. And it turns out that the thing that you are most likely to interact with is outrage. And that’s a quirk of the human condition.
My response is that their position is non-scientific – What is the testable hypothesis? What would falsify the hypothesis? How do we know when we are getting into a danger zone?
The analysis in
this chapter has shown that there is no such thing as a universal threshold over
which debt becomes unsustainable, and that the relevant debt level depends
on many factors, in particular the real interest rate on debt.
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