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Mark Manson x.com
People will judge you if you try and fail. People will judge you if you try and succeed. People will judge you if you don’t try at all. So decide: what do you want to be judged for?
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20 September
16 September
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Their words
sometimes it's alright to have the ceo vibe slop his way to success.
15 September
14 September
8 September
7 September
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There's an illusion here though that anyone will make it, which I've never portrayed to be true, entrepreneurship is one of the most challenging endeavours, kinda like pro sports
3 September
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You know what actually motivates founders day-to-day? The fear of failure. Even though they're doing this thing that if they succeed they'll be super rich. Um that does motivate them but the thing that motivates them at the at any given moment is the fear of like disaster or looking like a fool, the server crashing, right?
2 September
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Every attempt, even an unsuccessful one, is an alignment failure.
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VC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built
1 September
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So it seemed like they were willing to embark on quests that might take weeks to succeed um in order to cheat.
31 August
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korrents.com
A school should be judged on how fast its students are learning, not on how much they already know when measured.Their words
And you should measure a school based on the rate of learning and the slope of the line, the growth rate, not its achievement.
29 August
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But if you return fire with fire, the only thing that'll burn is our reputation. The troll who triggered you into flashing your teeth won't face any consequences, but every spectator who saw it will judge you.
20 August
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korrents.com
Moonshots succeed more often than Silicon Valley's use of the word admits -- we actually got to the moon.Their words
It's like, you know, when we went to the moon, we did it. And so, historically, the success rate of moonshots is higher than I think people give them credit for.
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korrents.com
Well-functioning systems succeed through continuous debugging rather than perfect initial design.Their words
When things work well, it's usually not because they were designed perfectly, but because they are constantly being debugged.
19 August
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Their words
And that embrace of people are going to use whatever tech they want to use. You can't tell people what to use very often. They're going to use whatever they want, and your job is to help them be successful on your platform, and to help your users have a great time.
17 August
13 August
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korrents.com
A low-effort AI-designed landing page costs a product its audience before the product itself is ever judged.Their words
I'm so incredibly tired of seeing low-effort AI-designed web pages. I basically bounce off any new product immediately when I see it (never get a chance to judge the product itself). Lots of thin lines, glowy styles, inconsistent fonts, lots of monospace.
12 August
10 August
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Many startups are racing to create foundational world models, but I think the first ones to succeed will likely be the platforms in control of this data bank.
9 August
7 August
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And so um in order to succeed your judgment has to be differentiatedly good. Now the reality might be that you don't know if your judgment is good yet. And so um one way or another you will have to find out and that means making decisions that make sense to you even when you are totally alone in that realization.
31 July
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I have always been of the belief, and still have this belief, that audio should be judged by the ear.
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I think you need to ask the uh, the sort of converse of that, uh, what if you succeed? And you know, you raise money and you've customers and you've employees and a whole thing. Like are you going to be are you going to enjoy that? Are you going to want to work on that for 10 years, for 17 years, for 30 years?
30 July
From one piece Jeff Dean: The 1% Rule for Building in AI 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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And often you can actually make the model work better and succeed at that kind of problem by not just adjusting the model parameters which is hard to do from the outside but from you know creating better guidelines for the model you know writing skills for the model to know how to use different tools that would be incredibly useful for solving this particular class of problem.
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And if they're completely failing, that's probably a good sign. If they're kind of able to do some of it but not very well, that's maybe not a great sign because that's a probably a a sign that the capability is starting to be present in those models and with more training data or larger scale models or or whatever it's likely to get better. So um you know look for something where the model succeeds 0% or 1% of the time not not 20%.
20 July
From one piece Death by AI 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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The second failure of rationality is a status quo bias: an unseemly attachment to the way things currently are; an irrational overweighing of the cost of the new. We effectively end up comparing a new technology to perfection, so it’s no wonder it comes up short.
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I agree with Koopman that people really are swayed by such cases. I also think it’s a dumb-ass gut response that we should try our best to get over.
16 July
9 July
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But I don't think we should judge content based on the tool that made it. Um I think we should judge it based on the content, the point of view, the person behind the content.
7 July
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korrents.com
Robotaxis should be judged and regulated on comparable fleet-wide incident data, not on individual incidents.Their words
More data for better comparisons are good. Now everybody has to do it, and regulators and the public have to learn to look at only the data, and not individual incidents
4 July
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That’s a lesson we could all learn about our approach to supplements and even drugs: not to fall for hazy promises that a single molecule will deliver vaguely-defined benefits for all aging persons, but to demand rigorous evidence for well-defined benefits for well-defined problems in well-defined populations.
Metformin and cancer: active surveillance neededpeterattiamd.com
26 June
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korrents.com
Running a model five times and keeping the best answer buys a higher benchmark score without buying a better model.Their words
Um so if you say okay well we're going to instead of just running this model once we're going to run it five times and take the best of the five responses or like ask a judge which one it thinks is best then you can get much higher scores than that model. And so it's really easy to make something that looks a lot better on paper but is actually not better once you control for the amount of test time compute.
22 June
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Their words
The phrase "your feelings are valid" does not invite curiosity or deeper self-understanding, which is the point of psychotherapy. It is the mirror image of "stop whining and get a grip." One sounds warm and one sounds harsh, but neither deepens self-awareness.
13 June
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korrents.com
Polished UI is a reasonable signal that a team invested comparable effort in the underlying code quality.Their words
Users can't see the code, so UI is the only way for them to judge the quality of the app. If UI looks good, that means developers had time to polish it, which means that they probably spent a comparable amount of time to iron out the code.
9 June
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they started from a place of corporate governance where they were looking out for fraud. And so so risk mitigation rather than shareholder interest. And so when you come at it from that perspective, you're like, there should be rules and people should adhere to the rules and when people get outside of the rules, that's bad.
4 June
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korrents.com
The rules that keep judges, juries and licensed professionals human are transitional, not permanent.Their words
all of these frictions on um the political type decisions that we are accustomed to only trusting human you know, only having humans for like legislation and being a judge, being a jury or all the licensing thing that keeps certain professions human that all strikes me as transitional, right?
2 June
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Most business advice is necessary but not sufficient on its own to achieve success.
2 May
26 April
27 March
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Whether or not they succeed is going to be decided by decisions that we all make as a community in the coming months.
24 March
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korrents.com
Putting the children most likely to succeed into one school is segregation, not educational excellence.Their words
Simply creating artificial separation between different students is not a strategy for “educational excellence.” It’s just segregation.
20 March
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um you know, these tools they either succeed or they fail um and they they've been really bad at creating sort of partial progress or identifying intermediate um um stages that you should you should focus on first.
20 February
16 February
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An administrative warrant is just a way for a law enforcement officers to memorialize a hunch on paper.
4 February
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People should not be judging AI-augmented coding by "1 shots."
22 January
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Given the focus in Coolidge, Shadwick, and Payton on the fundamental role of warrants in inserting a judicial check on the executive, it seems out of place to say that this can be satisfied by the executive checking itself.
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This is the hard problem of alignment we need to solve in order to succeed at building superintelligence, and to this day it is an unsolved problem.
16 January
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korrents.com
Successful founders are distinguished by knowing what to give up and when, not by refusing to ever quit.Their words
The founders who succeed aren't the ones who never give up-they're the ones who know what to give up and when.
15 January
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korrents.com
Local-first software will not become the dominant architecture, and that is an acceptable outcome.Their words
Local-first is not going to win, but that's okay We'll explore the complexities of traditional stack (db-server-frontend), develop a theory of software evolution: which systems succeed and why.
13 January
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When someone is asked to reflect on their own life, they draw on a wide range of experiences. When people are asked about “the world”, they recall a very small number of recent events (the availability bias).
9 December 2025
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We don't really have much evolved experience in evaluating postal efficiency, do we? Okay, we have quart of a million half a million years of evolved experience in deciding who to like and trust because for most of our evolutionary, you know, existence, that was one of the most fi five most important questions to get right.
25 November 2025
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They have a general sense which is also by the way extremely robust in people like whatever it is the human value function whatever the human value function is with a few exceptions around addiction it's actually very very robust
17 October 2025
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the reason that I think this is kind of tricky is quite subtle. And it's the fact that anytime you use an LLM to assign a reward, those LLMs are giant things with billions of parameters and they're gameable.
16 October 2025
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it's, I think, critical that ideas don't die on the vine because you've got, um, a visual expression that doesn't match what everyone else expects. Sometimes people will just filter them out because they don't look right.
3 October 2025
21 September 2025
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we often also have this mental model of like oh our managers are a judge and they're going to judge me on whether or not I got it I did well I should get a promotion I should be fired so there's this sometimes fear that people have but I think in the very best relationships the manager is like a guide
19 September 2025
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And I spoke with my father, who had been a high judge in Germany. What does the law actually say? And the law says if you plan a crime and then maybe when you commit it, you are under the influence, it does not diminish your responsibility.
18 September 2025
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in management uh like a CEO is is being fired when results are bad, which I think is fundamental that's multiple levels of wrong. Um, but like the way to judge a CEO is like out of what opportunity did you carve what company?
8 September 2025
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But with education and intelligence, we’re unwilling to countenance the simple reality that some people are better equipped to succeed and some worse.
13 August 2025
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Another big misunderstanding, and a fundamental one, is that people somehow think that the state suppresses the private sector. It’s not at all as simple as that. For the most part, if we look at the local government’s incentive system, they want to help the best, private companies, which are the most promising, because it makes them look good.
22 June 2025
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korrents.com
People find pairwise comparisons of answers easier and more consistent to judge than absolute ratingsTheir words
People find comparing two answers easier than assigning absolute ratings, resulting in greater consistency across annotators.
5 May 2025
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korrents.com
The hardest step on the road from chemistry to us was multicellularity, and it was strictly a problem of energetics.Their words
I would say, multicellularity which is strictly an energy problem, I think. Again, it’s just like can electrons flow the right way. And is it energetically favorable for multicellularity to exist because if it’s energetically expensive, it’s not going to succeed.
30 April 2025
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Clearly as well we see that the more people know about the medieval period, the more likely they are to be correct about it.
On what Americans know about medieval historygoing-medieval.com
23 April 2025
20 April 2025
19 January 2025
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My big motto like life motto in growth is that you have to fail to learn. You can't just constantly succeed. Success is an output of a lot of failures.
6 January 2025
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I suspect that both Substack and OnlyFans may become a Girardian bubble. Everyone joins after hearing from the few people who succeed; the thousands who slink away after months of effort netted them a mere 17 subscribers usually do so quietly.
27 December 2024
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Smarter Faster BetterTheir words
My second book is about the science of productivity, and how to succeed with less stress and struggle, to get more done without sacrificing what we care about most.
23 November 2024
29 October 2024
26 August 2024
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Without the details, though, it’s really difficult to know if this is an attack on free speech, or legitimate charges over actual criminal behavior.
9 August 2024
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New things tend to not work, or you have to change them drastically.
21 July 2024
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The bar I typically suggest is that the people manager doesn't need to have the most technical depth on the team, but they need enough depth that they can follow most discussions without slowing them down, understand who's correct in most debates without needing to rely on trust, and generally stay oriented easily.
26 November 2023
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korrents.com
Mars Sample Return as designed is too complicated, too slow and too expensive to succeed.Their words
The brief summary is that MSR’s architecture, pictured below, is incredibly complicated, slow, and expensive.
What is going on with Mars Sample Return?caseyhandmer.wordpress.com
17 November 2023
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I'm not a defensive realist, I'm an offensive realist. And my argument is that states look for opportunities to gain more power, and every time they see, or almost every time they see an opportunity to gain more power, and they think the likelihood of success is high and the cost will not be great, they'll jump at that opportunity.
16 November 2023
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Do not judge a product’s beauty by its aesthetics; judge it by how it made you feel.
9 November 2023
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Reality is the ultimate judge. Like physics is the law, everything else is a recommendation. I’ve seen plenty of people break the laws made by man, but none break the laws made by physics.
25 May 2023
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But we do not have enough data and we do not have enough insight to use AI/ML to pick better targets that have a higher chance of succeeding in the clinic.
9 August 2022
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Now, some decisions may have been good decisions that didn't work through no fault of the employee. And some may have been bad decisions that worked because the employee got lucky. So, you can't just look at the outcome, but you have to look at what What was the person thinking about when they made the decision?
12 July 2022
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Their words
The students who ultimately succeed in learning R are not the ones who force themselves to memorize functions or do a bunch of coding drills.
3 February 2022
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