Michael Moritz on why he doesn't think he'd succeed in venture today. "The venture business that I got into way back when is very different from the venture business today. I think it's become much more difficult. We had a variety of benefits back in the '80s and '90s that don't exist today. One of them being imperfect information. Pre-internet, unless you were very close to things, you didn't know what was happening. Today, everybody's got access to more or less the same information. Number two, there are just so many more entities of all stripes. Individuals, two or three people banding tog…
At the limit, and also well before that limit is reached, if all you do is fix the bugs, the AI will learn perfect optimization of reward, will realize not to reward hack in the perfect test environments, then turn around and reward hack in the imperfect real world environments.
He ruled out all the actual, measurable variables because they were an imperfect explanation, and instead offers a vague, diffuse variable, for which he has no measure, and which is not actually included in his model.
And in all of these applications, the customer is making a decision based off of the recommendation of the AI model more or less. Uh, and this means that if the customer is ultimately like kind of making the decision, this means that if the system makes a mistake, um, that's okay because usually the person can kind of recognize that or or decide what to do even despite that mistake.
we've both come to believe that when transformation fails repeatedly, it's time for something different, and one of the tools that leaders need to add to their tool belts (and probably use a lot more frequently than they do today), is starting fresh, creating new entities (agencies and departments, for example) and either endowing them with new authorities or transferring authorities from legacy institutions to the new ones.
Making licenses suddenly commercial for big entities? You are forcing people to
go back through the Procurement process. They will shift over time back
to a FOSS solution, even if it is less good.
we're not doing training by evolution. Uh we're doing training by basically imitation of humans and the data that they've put on the internet. And so you end up with these like sort of ethereal spirit entities because they're fully digital and they're kind of like mimicking humans.
A lot of it has to do with just how you feel about change. Um, and if you think the current situation is really really good, then you're uh more likely to be suspicious of change and averse to change than if you think um it's imperfect. And I think it's imperfect. In fact, I think it's pretty bad.
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