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Morgan Housel x.com
It's not a perfect analogy but I view this as the equivalent of "most college players don't make the NBA." You shouldn't expect the majority of people to succeed at a very hard thing.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
18 September
16 September
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korrents.com
Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters.Their words
AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Robots will not be able to beat the best human basketball players in a full game by 2040.Their words
I bet against this timeline and say they will not. The winner has to buy a round of gelato.
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korrents.com
Small disadvantages relative to others hurt more than equivalent small advantages help.Their words
It's unfair, not only materially, but psychologically. The bad we feel about small disadvantages is greater than the good we feel about small advantages.
12 September
9 September
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Their words
WebP is typically 25-35% smaller than PNG at equivalent visual quality, useful for HTML reports where file size matters
8 September
5 September
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korrents.com
AI-enabled cyberwarfare lacks an equivalent of nuclear deterrence's mutually assured destruction.Their words
AI hacking doesn’t have mutually assured destruction, like nuclear warfare does.
America is still beating China in the AI racenoahpinion.blog
4 September
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korrents.com
New view prediction is to spatial intelligence what next token prediction is to language.Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
3 September
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Their words
The irony is that gamification is a brittle imitation of an actual game.
31 August
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from HistoryTheir words
It is a quick read, an excellent book whose main virtue is not, in my opinion, direct analogy with the World War I, but a treatment of how in a multipolar world relatively small international events, misunderstandings, idiosyncratic fits of leaders, “hubris and fear” (as Westad often writes), resentment of the elite and of the public prodded by the media, can produce colossal miscalculations which then produce even more colossal wars and, in the era of the weapons of mass destruction, may end the civilization.
27 August
26 August
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Their words
maybe performance could be part of a package where you try to take on one of those players. like, hey, look at how much more responsive our thing is than theirs. Might be a nice plus, but that's not going to be sufficient.
25 August
17 August
11 August
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Their words
I do I do think that I wish that sort of my preferred constitution or like the way I would orient towards this like the thing I would prefer would be more like Claude is like look it would be structurally good for the way this technology work like the constitution should be like it would be structurally good for the way this technology works to be that AIS are like good fiduciaries, good representatives, the equivalent of a lawyer for a user
9 August
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Their words
“you are a devil’s advocate, disagree with everything” is probably the worst possible prompt for this agent. within a week everyone would ignore her. she’d become the slack equivalent of a smoke detector that goes off whenever somebody makes toast.
5 August
2 August
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korrents.com
The industry's promotion ladder took its best product people and promoted them out of doing the work.Their words
what you did if you were really successful as a PM is you got promoted into being a director and then all of a sudden it was like don't be hands-on anymore. Your goal goal is just to coach and guide. And so, we took all of our A players and then promoted them out of doing things.
31 July
29 July
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Their words
And that kind of compiling of information about the materials is something other fields do that we don't do. An analogy that I would think of in software would be something like a 500-page book on how to version an API.
28 July
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Their words
I think it will feel like the next six months is like maybe equivalent to the last two years of model progress something like that
15 July
9 July
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Their words
power shifting from institutions to individuals across industries, the easiest example is sports where players are more relevant than teams now.
29 June
23 June
18 June
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Their words
And you have to have a robust and resilient supply chain. You cannot just depend on one or two player in different geographical. And so, I think, you know, the more and more people going to realize making in United States is critical.
9 June
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Their words
the regulation gets extremely difficult and mundane and expensive that could actually lead to more igopoly and I think some of the players know that and are begging for regulation.
3 June
30 April
16 April
1 April
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Their words
when you have team A, team A will just want to hire more A level players and yeah, they just intolerant of anybody who's not performing,
19 March
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Their words
Problem is, you can solve SQL injection by parameterizing your queries. You can't do that with LLMs.
15 March
14 March
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Their words
players who are also commentators give better commentary than people who are just commentators. Stock analysts who never invest have zero skin in the game.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Um in general the semiconductor supply chain has not right it's lived through the booms and bust and uh we can talk a bit more about it but basically no one you know some players as of very recently have like woken up but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gawatts a year of AI chips or you know trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain.
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Their words
You can you can take the margin like Nvidia takes the margin. memory players are taking the margin, but ASML has never risen the price more than they've increased the capability of the tool. Um, and so in a sense, they've always provided net benefit to their customer.
11 March
From one piece Jeff Kaplan: World of Warcraft, Overwatch, Blizzard, and Future of Gaming | Lex Fridman Podcast #493 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And I’ve heard it outside of Blizzard, other people in the industry, which is you design along the path of least resistance.
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Which is, you know, you’re the game designer who’s playing God, and players are the ants in your ant farm, and you want to see what they’re gonna do, which is not the correct way to be a good multiplayer designer.
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And the reality of what they want is they want a match where they’re slightly better than the other guy.
+ 1 more
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And what makes an MMO, massively multiplayer online game, massive is having the other people there. And they’re so important or else the world feels kind of wrong and dead. But the concept that we have to force you to interact with them to do anything is very off-putting to a lot of people.
17 February
16 February
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Their words
It's interesting that the Shorter hobby businesses all draft off superstars in the legacy hobby, but make their vast majority of their money from people who will of course never come close to the level superstars - you'd still go to pickleball and talk Nadal vs Federer, you'd still go to Top Golf and make Tiger Woods jokes.
13 February
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Their words
The way you get industries in which there are small number of players are very high costs of entry, right? Um so, you know, uh cloud is like this. I think cloud is a good example of this. You have three, maybe four players within cloud. I think I think that's the same for AI, three maybe four.
12 February
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Their words
But then you actually sit down and do the maths, and then for most people if you just skip one burger per month, that compensates the, the CO2 output, or, like, the water use in equivalent of tokens.
1 January
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Their words
As with self driving cars, most of the early players in humanoid robots, will quietly shut up shop and disappear. Those that remain will pivot and redefine what they are doing, without renaming it, to something more achievable and with, finally, plausible business cases.
21 December 2025
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Inner Game of TennisTheir words
The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey I love books like this with a simple message using sports as an analogy for other aspects of life.
19 December 2025
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korrents.com
LLM intelligence should not be understood through an animal analogy; it is a different kind of entity altogetherTheir words
2025 is where I (and I think the rest of the industry also) first started to internalize the "shape" of LLM intelligence in a more intuitive sense. We're not "evolving/growing animals", we are "summoning ghosts".
26 November 2025
16 November 2025
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Their words
AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processing.
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But I guess like the notion of culture and of written record and of like passing down notes between each other. I don't think there's an equivalent of that with LM right now. So LM don't really have culture right now and it's kind of like one of the I think uh impediments I would say.
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Their words
These models don't really have this distillation phase um of taking what happened, analyzing it, obsessively thinking through it, um basically doing some kind of a synthetic data generation process and distilling it back back into the weights
12 September 2025
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Their words
Like people are people and robots are robots. Like the the better analogy for the robot, it's it's like your car or a bulldozer. Uh like uh it has much lower maintenance requirements. You can put them into all sorts of weird places and they don't have to look like people at all.
4 September 2025
From one piece Dave Hone: T-Rex, Dinosaurs, Extinction, Evolution, and Jurassic Park | Lex Fridman Podcast #480 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Yes, it's what ultimately killed the dinosaurs, but I'd be amazed if there wasn't some equivalent of Hawaii or New Zealand or some other tucked away island or valley where actually dinosaurs were fine for anything from a few hundred thousand to a couple of million years.
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Their words
Why don't Chinese dragons look like Mexican dragons or equivalent thunderbirds or whatever? Well, because it probably wasn't influencing them. If they were all seeing the same skeleton, they'd probably all produce the same kind of mythical animals.
3 September 2025
2 September 2025
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korrents.com
Large language models have no network effect, and remembering a user is a switching cost rather than one.Their words
there's no apparent equivalent in LLM right now there's no reason why the LMS get better because more people use them now that may come you have that open AI and people have doing memory where it remembers what else you've asked, but that seems more like a switching cost than a network effect.
18 August 2025
From one piece How is AI Different Than Other Technology Waves? (With Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor) [ACQ2] 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
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Their words
it has to be consolidated because to basically make the money back on the pre-training and post-training process you need relatively few players that are collecting taxes you know from all the players on top or you just can't make the the math work.
24 May 2025
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Their words
It’s like, no, because the moment Hitler stopped the war, the bombing would stop. The moment the war stopped in Hitler’s favor, the killing would continue and be accelerated.
28 April 2025
16 October 2024
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korrents.com
Calling the lost civilisation advanced means only that it could calculate longitude, not that it built machines.Their words
And when I say that, as I have said on a number of occasions, that it had technology equivalent to ours in the 18th century, I’m referring specifically to the ability to calculate longitude. I’m not saying that they were building steam engines. I don’t see any evidence for that.
2 October 2024
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Their words, before
The required organizational transition is equivalent in scope and difficulty to the Apollo program, and will be made or broken during the tenure of the next NASA administrator.
Their words now
At the time I was optimistic, now I am not.
31 August 2024
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Their words
One is to take an average of the choices that other writers have made, as represented by text found on the Internet; that average is equivalent to the least interesting choices possible, which is why A.I.-generated text is often really bland.
25 July 2024
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Their words
Context construction for foundation models is equivalent to feature engineering for classical ML models.
19 June 2024
From one piece Aravind Srinivas: Perplexity CEO on Future of AI, Search & the Internet | Lex Fridman Podcast #434 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And it gives hope for a world where we can have more players instead of two or three companies controlling the most capable models. And that’s why I think it’s very important that he succeeds and that his success also enables the success of many others.
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Their words
But any breakthrough can disrupt that. If you can decouple reasoning and facts and end up with much smaller models that can reason really well, you don’t need a million H100 equivalent cluster.
2 February 2024
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korrents.com
A technology company's success is determined mainly by how fast it operates and learns.Their words
The biggest determinant for success in a technology company is the speed at which it operates and learns - the "clock speed" to use a CPU analogy.
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