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continuousprediction — Formulating Model-based RL Dynamics as a continuous rather then one step prediction
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20 September
18 September
17 September
16 September
14 September
13 September
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Their words
Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
7 September
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Their words
The AI jobs prediction so far is playing out the opposite of what many thought.
4 September
From one piece Why Fei-Fei Li Is Betting on Spatial Intelligence 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
New view prediction is to spatial intelligence what next token prediction is to language.Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
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Their words
So okay, so to take a evolutionary view, right? That new viewpoint prediction is exactly evolution had to solve by making animals move. You you nature give animals eyes. But nature didn't give trees eye. Eyes. Why? Because when you move, you see a new viewpoint.
2 September
31 August
- Mastodon
- NewsletterIssue 109 – Reg Crypto
26 August
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Their words
This is complete nonsense, a shame that The Economist has been taken in by it.
25 August
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korrents.com
The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.Their words, before
It’s not that any one of these things represents a mania, but collectively they do. And I know what can happen after that mania.
Their words now
Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.
26 July
4 June
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Their words
but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
27 May
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Their words
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
25 May
24 May
From one piece AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
SaaS stocks are a buy right now.Their words
So, this is another good prediction. I would buy SAS stocks right now.
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Their words
Here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously.
23 May
13 February
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Their words
But but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
6 February
13 January
8 December 2025
18 November 2025
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Their words
Thus my personal prediction is that in domains that are already largely under the powers of modern AI, such as languages, programming or chess, we’re going to see a divergence in human abilities.
17 October 2025
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Their words
so a good example recently was um Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore and this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways right so radiologists are alive and well and growing even though computer vision is really really good at recognizing all the different things that they have to recognize
26 September 2025
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Their words
If you go to look about how psychologists think about learning, there's nothing like uh imitation. Maybe there are some extreme cases where humans might do that or appear to do that, but there's no basic animal learning process called imitation.
4 July 2025
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korrents.com
Using a neural network is likely to become easier than designing a custom-tuned prediction algorithm for many tasks.Their words
in 2025 it might end up being easier to just throw a neural net at the problem, instead of a custom-designed-and-tuned prediction algorithm!
14 June 2025
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Their words
There are certainly math results which could only have been accomplished because there was a human authentication and an AI involved, but it's hard to disentangle credit. I mean, these tools, they do not replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics, but they can replicate some non-trivial percentage of them, 30, 40%, so they can fill in gaps.
1 October 2024
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korrents.com
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.Their words
To summarize the above, my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
19 September 2024
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Their words
So for these reasons, I (unfortunately) do not expect any big AI-driven breakthroughs in biological understanding any time soon.
1 September 2024
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Their words
I also have another less optimistic prediction: as soon as the concept of founder mode becomes established, people will start misusing it. Founders who are unable to delegate even things they should will use founder mode as the excuse. Or managers who aren't founders will decide they should try to act like founders.
25 May 2024
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Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
2 January 2024
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Their words
Life expectancy isn’t a prediction of how long people will live.
2 August 2023
25 July 2022
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Their words, before
If you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Their words now
I had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
15 July 2021
From one piece Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold (with 33 co-authors) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Despite these advances, contemporary physical and evolutionary-history-based approaches produce predictions that are far short of experimental accuracy in the majority of cases in which a close homologue has not been solved experimentally and this has limited their utility for many biological applications.
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Their words
Despite recent progress10-14, existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available.
20 October 2020
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