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Weekend Update #200: Summer Is Ending, The Russian Offensive Is A Failure So Far
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21 September
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
20 September
Mathematical physicist at UC Riverside. Wrote This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics and now the Azimuth blog on mathematics, physics and environmental science.
As the view from Moscow becomes increasingly embarrassing, it seems increasingly likely Putin will start a new more desperate phase of his war against Ukraine. Experts expect him to start a quiet mobilization of troops shortly after tomorrow's parliamentary elections. He seems to want 300,000 - 500,000 new soldiers. Despite increasing payments, recruitment has been failing to keep pace with the rising casualties. We can also expect Putin to step up attacks against Europe. More drones flying into European air space, and more stuff like this: • On August 4, 2026, a bomb squad at Leipzig/Halle A… pravda.com.ua
Europe Russia Related
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
19 September
President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.
17 September
President of the European Commission since 2019; previously Germany's defence minister.
In yesterday’s SOTEU speech, I made clear that the EU must continue applying pressure on Russia, taking every possible step to weaken its war machine. The adoption of the Graham Bill by the US House of Representatives sends a clear message. My friend, Senator Graham, strongly believed targeted and coordinated action on both sides of the Atlantic could make the difference in ending the war. I hope this important opportunity is seized, in the interest of peace. Europe Russia Related
Swedish open source developer; creator and lead maintainer of curl and libcurl, and a co-founder of the Rockbox project.
The Russian drone that crashed in Lithuania the other day had curl installed. As part of a default Linux install presumably, it seems unlikely it used curl for any "drony" things. Linux Russia Related
Writes Hyperdimensional, a newsletter on AI policy and governance. A White House AI policy adviser in 2025; joined OpenAI on 6 July 2026 to lead its Strategic Futures team.
David is fundamentally right that safety is a core obligation of the AI industry. It cannot and will not be legislated. Safety is something that is built, not something that is created from the top down with law. Law, at best, creates the incentives for safety to be prioritized. Quoting @IngrahamAngle 🚨 Sacks: They want a WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION for AI @DavidSacks: “When it comes to AI safety, we need the companies themselves to internalize the sense of responsibility — not try to externalize it onto Beijing or Brussels.” “It’s your responsibility to make it safe.” Related
16 September
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
Vladimir Putins former PhD supervisor says that Russia sits on a huge, self-replenishing reservoir of oil. Now the Russians want to drill for it. Russia Related
Freelance climate and energy analyst in Oslo, writing on Europe, the US and Australia; worked in the Australian renewables industry before that.
15 September
President of the European Commission since 2019; previously Germany's defence minister.
Once again, Europe woke up to reckless and dangerous Russian behaviour. A Russian warship fired emergency flares dangerously close to a Danish helicopter. A drone entered Lithuanian airspace before being destroyed by NATO fighter jets. These are not isolated incidents. They are part of a broader pattern of Russian aggression and provocation against Europe, testing our readiness and our resolve. Russia will find our resolve only growing stronger. We are reinforcing our collective deterrence and defence, together with NATO. And we are stepping up the pressure on Russia. Europe Russia Related
14 September
Co-founder and CEO of Linear; previously principal designer at Airbnb, where he led the Design Language System, and founding designer at Coinbase.
With this update we prioritized product management use cases: @linear Loops can now respond to project, initiative, cycle, and issue changes, update Linear documents, and share tailored Slack updates automatically. Quoting @linear New capabilities for Linear Loops: • Trigger from project, initiative, cycle, and issue changes • Edit documents automatically • Send tailored Slack updates 🔗: Related
11 September
German developer; founder and lead developer of Mastodon, the decentralized open-source social network.
Does anyone have a high resolution copy of Shishkin’s Brook in a Forest (Stream by a Forest Slope)? Wikipedia has the highest resolution I can find, but not nearly high enough to print at a reasonable size. I’ve already looked through the top hits on Google and Yandex in both English and Russian. Is this just a dead end? Google Russia Related
President of the European Commission since 2019; previously Germany's defence minister.
Today, we have approved €6.1 billion to help Ukraine procure air defence systems, missiles, drones and electronic warfare systems. With this approval, Ukraine can purchase the Patriot equipment it needs to protect its skies from Russia's attacks. Together with our Member States and NATO, we will continue to deliver for Ukraine. So that Ukraine prevails. So that it wins the just and lasting peace it deserves. link.europa.eu
Russia Related
9 September
Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.
Inigo Fraser Jenkins (@AB_insights) on why the US track record isn't the whole story: Rank markets by market cap in 1899: the US and UK compounded beautifully. Japan, Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, France? Effectively wiped out. "There is this inherent survivorship bias in the way people think about long-run returns." Listen: https://t.co/mfnaUo1DNT Watch: youtube.com
Russia Related
British comics writer and novelist (Transmetropolitan, Planetary, The Authority, Gun Machine). Keeps a public daily notebook logging what he reads, watches and listens to.
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
8 September
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
7 September
Canadian software developer and writer, co-editor of the XML and Atom specifications and formerly of Sun Microsystems, Google and AWS. Has written the blog ongoing since 2003.
Watching the news out of Germany, feeling a bit baffled. AfD looks like another Trumpy ultranationalist racist-in-practice fashy-adjacent culture-warrior gang, but what I can’t understand is the pro-Russian message: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AfD_pro-Russia_movement Why on earth does that appeal to German voters, even hard-right ones? #afd Russia Related
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
6 September
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
5 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
2 September
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
30 August
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.
American historian of Central and Eastern Europe and the Holocaust; author of Bloodlands, On Tyranny and On Freedom, and writer of the newsletter 'Thinking about...'.
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
26 August
Economist specialising in global income inequality; formerly lead economist in the World Bank research department, now at the CUNY Graduate Center and author of the Global Inequality and More newsletter.
From one piece
On European hypocrisy and warmongering
3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
22 August
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
17 August
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
12 August
Hosts the Lex Fridman Podcast — long, unhurried conversations with scientists, engineers and public figures. Several of the interviews quoted elsewhere on this site are episodes of it.
Here's my conversation with Khabib Nurmagomedov (@TeamKhabib), one of the greatest fighters of all time. It was truly an honor to get to train with him, to have this deep conversation, and to get to know him over the past few months. We did this conversation entirely in Russian. It's translated and dubbed into English. Both language audio tracks and subtitles are available on YouTube. Here on X, I'm posting the English & Russian language versions as seperate videos. The translation & dubbing was a huge amount of work (which I deeply care about) with humans & AI collaborating. Thanks to the am… Russia Related
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
10 August
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
5 August
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.
1 August
Writer and researcher, founder of New Science; writes essays on science funding, sleep research, productivity and ambition at guzey.com.
What about when you: - Grew up in Russia - Went to a university nobody in the States heard about - Never had a job - Wrote a blog in your second language nobody read for years - Just kept writing, tweeting, and cold emailing people until it worked Quoting @distributedkv SF is extremely meritocratic when you are: - ex-Anthropic employee - ex-OpenAI employee - Stanford dropout - MIT dropout - Harvard dropout - PhD dropout at 15 - former poker champion - former chess master - Thiel fellow - born to parents who worked at Roblox Russia Related
23 July
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
S.1241 - Sanctioning Russia Act: https://t.co/N0ci2PLTBl a very good idea whose time has come Russia Related
Bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act: would impose meaningful mandatory sanctions + targeted tariffs. An excellent idea whose time has come. Hopefully, Congress will pass and the President will sign soon Russia Related
16 July
Labour politician. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from July 2024 to June 2026, and MP for Holborn and St Pancras from 2015 until standing down in 2026. Director of Public Prosecutions before entering Parliament.
I’ve visited Ukraine four times as Prime Minister, and I’ve seen first-hand the devastation caused by Russia’s invasion. The UK’s support for Ukraine will never waver. That’s why we’re funding fighter jets for Ukraine, strengthening their ability to defend themselves while supporting thousands of skilled jobs in the UK. So good to see you again my friend, @ZelenskyyUa. Russia Related
12 July
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.
8 July
Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money, Same As Ever and The Art of Spending Money. Writes essays on investor behavior and posts frequently on X.
A Russian saying on nostalgia: "The past is more unpredictable than the future." Russia Related
20 June
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
13 June
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
American historian of Central and Eastern Europe and the Holocaust; author of Bloodlands, On Tyranny and On Freedom, and writer of the newsletter 'Thinking about...'.
9 June
Historian of maritime strategy at the US Naval War College; wrote The Wars for Asia and works on why continental and maritime powers fight differently.
From one piece
Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography
5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
China Russia
Their words
One, you're surrounding yourself by failing states. You can look at Russia and China and they're surrounded by some of the most dysfunctional places on the planet and you go, "Gee whiz, are they unlucky or they complicit?"
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
Russia
Their words
It was a miracle of your lifetimes. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. The problem for the likes of Putin is that this wealth producing trade was not happening at his house, but the houses of those vested in the trading order, not in extortion.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
China Russia government
Their words
And Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. China much more so under Deng Xiaoping, but recently Xi Jinping has been privileging the crony sector over the private sector and neither one has stable government institutions.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
+ 2 more
China Russia
Their words
So, China and Russia certainly have maritime ambitions, but I'm not clear they actually understand what goes into a full maritime paradigm.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
Russia
Their words
You set them up to fail, you destabilize the rising, you ingest the failing, and you set up buffer zones in between, and you await the opportune moment to pounce and absorb. This is Vladimir Putin's game.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
8 June
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
30 May
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
27 May
Founder of what became Bloomberg New Energy Finance; writes and speaks on clean energy, hydrogen and the economics of the transition, and hosts the Cleaning Up podcast.
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.
(1) Most countries do not actually have a military. Instead, most countries outsource their security to the US (most common), to Russia (like Belarus), or to China (like North Korea, partially). Iran is unusual in that they're going it largely alone. They're also unusual in that they actually appear to be winning. And if Iran does manage to drive the US out of not just Afghanistan and Iraq, but the entire Middle East, they'll have unfortunately undermined the idea that America can or will provide any security guarantees at all. (2) So, with the withdrawal of the American Empire, every country… whitehouse.gov
Quoting @Madeline_Zimm Roman Helmet Guy gets it. Reminds me of my book review of Balaji’s Network State, wherein I argue that yes, we still need the military 🤡 China Russia Related
20 March
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
https://t.co/9sLQvgKr3Z the Iran-Russia combination suggests that a quagmire looms #OOTT Russia Related
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