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Miles Brundage Newsletter
Standards, Incentives, and Evidence: The Frontier AI Governance Triad
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17 September
16 September
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Their words
AI plausibly increases the risk at the margin. Whether that increase is small or catastrophic depends on factors such as AI capability trajectories, biosecurity responses, governance, etc.
What AI can and cannot do in biosecurityyourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
15 September
14 September
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Their words
Technologies are not neutral, but political. Money is indeed one of the incentives, but not the only one. A mixture of millennialism, eugenics, search for utopia and for a spread of the specie beyond the confines of the Earth, are all elements we find among the founders’ views.
11 September
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AI companies make for flawed messengers on this subject: they can reasonably be accused of marketing, of blame-shifting, of regulatory capture, and more.
8 September
1 September
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So many of the people who think about the governance of superintelligence, myself included, avoided that unpleasantness and bowed to the social pressure to self-censor.
31 August
22 August
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The difference is mostly the delay, which stems not necessarily from the regulation itself, but from the incentives in the machinery that administers it.
20 August
12 August
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korrents.com
Public discourse shapes what form governance and regulatory accountability ultimately take.Their words
Governance inherits the shape of the discourse that informs it,
11 August
10 August
5 August
3 August
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error'Their words
This is such a useful book. It makes the case that there's no such thing as "human error" - instead most catastrophes are caused by system issues, misaligned incentives, and unrealistic processes. You are not the custodian of an otherwise safe system that you need to protect from erratic human beings.
29 July
28 July
24 July
16 June
9 June
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Their words
they started from a place of corporate governance where they were looking out for fraud. And so so risk mitigation rather than shareholder interest. And so when you come at it from that perspective, you're like, there should be rules and people should adhere to the rules and when people get outside of the rules, that's bad.
26 May
From one piece Who Audits the Auditors? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
institutions don't fail because people are wicked. Evidence, incentives, discretion, and review rights might be flowing in the wrong direction.
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AI systems however don't need lunch meetings, careers, or envelopes of cash to have an analogous failure.
10 May
From one piece How Anthropic, Costco, and Patagonia all build incorruptible companies | Eric Ries 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
If you don't get this right, no other decision you make about your company will matter for the long term because you're not going to be the one making it.
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Their words
I looked down the panel and I realized not a single one of these companies has standard governance. That's how bad it is.
25 April
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korrents.com
The world is shaped by how consistently incompetent governance is, and competent governance would remake itTheir words
As an econ professor who specialized in governance, I can assure you that the world is greatly structured by the fact that we typically have pretty incompetent governance.
22 April
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Their words
there I feel like in academia, I have the freedom to work on things that go against this commercial incentive of companies and say like, "Actually, no, I'm going to do what I think is right for the users."
22 February
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We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
18 December 2025
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Their words
There is a close mapping between government ideal types and corporate governance structures given their shared origins in transaction costs.
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Likedrcmnd.app
IvyTheir words
Use apps like BobbyApproved and Ivy to scan the bar codes and get a lot of information about all ingredients and a score (I like and use both).
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Likedrcmnd.app
BobbyApprovedTheir words
Use apps like BobbyApproved and Ivy to scan the bar codes and get a lot of information about all ingredients and a score (I like and use both).
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Usesrcmnd.app
BluelandTheir words
Look for very few and simple ingredients and ideally "fragrance free" and "dye free". I currently use Blueland for all of these.
15 December 2025
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Their words
When you're in any kind of creative thing, there is this benefit to not just following the financial incentives and and not trying to kind of like milk every last penny out of it. And to creating scarcity, not just for the sake of the scarcity, but for the sake of the quality.
3 December 2025
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Their words
investors at many tech companies, including most on the large cap list, have given up their corporate governance rights, often voluntarily (through the acceptance of shares with different voting rights), to founders and top management in these companies
20 November 2025
19 October 2025
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korrents.com
Centralized, hierarchical competitive tournaments are effective at creating strong incentives.Their words
Also, centralized hierarchical tournaments seem to be good at creating very effective incentives.
2 September 2025
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But once you actually have a sophisticated industrial economy, central planning can't handle the complexity. And so you try and create incentives and structures around that while not having pricing and that just doesn't work.
13 August 2025
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Another big misunderstanding, and a fundamental one, is that people somehow think that the state suppresses the private sector. It’s not at all as simple as that. For the most part, if we look at the local government’s incentive system, they want to help the best, private companies, which are the most promising, because it makes them look good.
1 July 2025
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Even if late 30s eventually find love, the reproductive window is much smaller. Cash incentives can’t trump biology.
19 June 2025
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governing frontier AI requires standards for safety and security, incentives for the leading AI developers to follow those standards, and evidence that the standards are being followed.
22 March 2025
15 February 2025
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Contrary to some people’s beliefs, companies do not in fact have sufficient incentives to mitigate all major risks, and competition is driving corner-cutting that needs to be reined in somehow.
7 January 2025
20 December 2024
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Their words
If there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.
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Their words
I don’t think many in the West have yet fully internalized a mental model of China as a source of genuine innovation.
27 September 2024
15 June 2024
22 April 2024
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Their words
If you think about how we teach quantum mechanics to our students, the Copenhagen interpretation, it’s a God-awful mess. No one’s going to accuse that of being very beautiful. I’m a fan of the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, and that is very beautiful in the sense that fewer ingredients, just one equation, and it could cover everything in the world.
20 February 2024
From one piece Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The problem is the defamation law in the US is so favorable to the publisher, to the media, and so unfavorable to the victim. And the incentives are all wrong.
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korrents.com
Harvard's governance is broken because its self-perpetuating board can never be rebalanced from outside.Their words
It's really a self-perpetuating board that effectively elects its own members. Once the balance tips, politically, one way or another, it can be kept that way forever. There's no kind of rebalancing system.
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korrents.com
Incentives drive all human behaviour, which makes a management team's incentives central to valuing a company.Their words
So as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior and that certainly applies in the business world. So understanding the people and what drives them, and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business, are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company.
17 November 2023
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Their words
And I believe that there is a good chance you would've had World War II in the absence of Hitler. I believe that Germany was very powerful, it was deeply worried about the balance of power in Europe, and it had strong incentives to behave aggressively in the late 1930s, early 1940s.
31 October 2023
26 October 2023
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Their words
Society's response, despite promising first steps, is incommensurate with the possibility of rapid, transformative progress that is expected by many experts. AI safety research is lagging. Present governance initiatives lack the mechanisms and institutions to prevent misuse and recklessness, and barely address autonomous systems.
3 October 2023
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Their words
It seems to me that an attractive robust approach is to have governments pay lots for kids (at no cost or risk to them!) and then let those who respond to these incentives tell us which compromises seem most attractive.
24 June 2023
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Their words
At the same time, in order to reduce the probability of someone intentionally or unintentionally bringing about a rogue AI, we need to increase governance and we should consider limiting access to the large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized, which would mean that the code and neural net parameters would not be shared in open-source and some of the important engineering tricks to make them work would not be shared either.
17 March 2022
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Their words
Governance is a delicate and complex topic, and you want to leave it as orthogonal as possible to funding.
25 January 2022
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korrents.com
When a system's incentives produce bad behaviour, the blame belongs entirely to whoever created the incentives.Their words
And then you have a choice which is do you blame the people who are exhibiting the terrible behavior or do you blame the people who created the incentives? Right? And and and he he believes and I agree on this. I I think 100% you blame the people who created the incentives.
21 April 2020
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Usesaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Rancho GordoTheir words
For special cooking, or simpler bean dishes that really glow up with better ingredients, I use Rancho Gordo.
23 February 2020
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Their words
In any case, I think we need to not only look at the incentives facing scientists, but also those facing department heads, journals, and grant-making agencies.
31 October 2018
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Their words
On the other hand, by avoiding foundations, projects also avoid the question of how to formalize their governance, thus risking a “tyranny of structurelessness” that might range from projects living inside a company forever, to disorganized chaos that negatively impacts project velocity.
29 November 2017
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Food of ChinaTheir words
It offers a good counterpart to the KC Chang. It's very well researched and comprehensive, covering all aspects of Chinese cooking – ingredients, cooking techniques, history, agricultural system and so on.
23 April 2017
Nothing matches.
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