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Statistician at Columbia; writes Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and wrote Bayesian Data Analysis.

• How did it go, this prediction from ten years ago about Japanese fertility in 2026?

  From 2017: Gaurav Sood points us to this post, “Why did so many Japanese families avoid having children in 1966?”, by Randy Olson, which includes the excellent graph above and the following explanation: The Japanese use…

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Bulgarian-born writer and founder of The Marginalian (formerly Brain Pickings), a reader-funded blog on books, science, art and philosophy running since 2006.

• Edward Abbey on How to Live and How to Die

  The summer after graduating high school, knowing he would face conscription into the military as soon as his eighteenth birthday arrived, Edward Abbey (January 29, 1927–March 14, 1989) set out to get to know the land he…

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Writer of kottke.org, one of the oldest blogs on the web, published since 1998 and supported by its members. He writes about art, technology, science, design and visual culture.

• BlueskyNew book from Ed Yong! Life Beyond Measure: Nature’s Hidden Wonders at Every Scale. “A bristlecone pine rounds the corner of its fifth millennium; shorebirds fly without stopping across the world’s largest ocean…” Out in April, pre-order now.

  bookshop.org

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• MastodonNew book from Ed Yong! Life Beyond Measure: Nature’s Hidden Wonders at Every Scale. “A bristlecone pine rounds the corner of its fifth millennium; shorebirds fly without stopping across the world’s largest ocean…” Out in April, pre-order now.

  bookshop.org

  Related

• BlogNew book from Ed Yong! Life Beyond Measure: Nature’s...

  dden Wonders at Every Scale. “A bristlecone pine rounds the corner of its fifth millennium; shorebirds fly without stopping across the world’s largest ocean…” Out in April, pre-order now.

  Related

Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

• Some Recent Fertility News

  Never gamble against Vietnam, India still can’t say the word, Korea and Japan pivoting?

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Economics professor at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Writes Bet On It.

• Team Caplan is going to GaryCon, March 18-21, 2027! Want to play with us? Get your badge before they sell out. (waited too long last year, FOMO activated)

  garycon.com

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Reviews sports technology at DC Rainmaker — watches, power meters and bike computers — in exhaustive detail, having tested them himself.

• Apple’s Secret 50KM Backyard Ultra Detailed!

  "This is not a race"- That's the (repeated) words of the announcer at last night's running event at Apple Campus. And I suspect those same words might have been spoken five months ago on April 1st, 2026, when a bunch

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Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.

• It's the fun

  Collapsing fertility in four easy steps

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Creator of the Keras deep-learning library and the ARC-AGI benchmark.

• Side note: when we released ARC-AGI-3 in March, and frontier models scored <1% on it, a few Singularitarian poasters took it as a personal insult, and got very worked up about it. They argued the benchmark was fundamentally broken, that it could not even be solved by the smartest humans, that the max reachable score was actually 40%, etc. We had to deal with a torrent of insults and hate poasts since because we had released an unsaturated benchmark. As it turns out, the benchmark is perfectly calibrated. It is straightforward for a human to score 100% if they do better than average people – a…
  Quoting@fcholletAny smart human giving it real effort should score >90% on ARC-AGI-3

  ARC-AGIbenchmarksRelated

American author of The Obstacle Is the Way, Ego Is the Enemy and Stillness Is the Key. Writes the Reading List book-recommendation email (started 2008) and owns The Painted Porch bookstore in Bastrop, Texas. Hosts The Daily Stoic podcast.

• This Won’t Solve All Your Problems (Just Most of Them)

  In March 2025, we found two ten-week old puppies dumped on the road near where we live out in the country. One was white with spots. The other was mostly black with some white on her chest and paws. Both were emaciated,…

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Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

• Below-Replacement Fertility Is Not New

  We’ve been here before. Definitely in the mid-1300s.

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Writer and teacher on productivity and personal knowledge management. Author of Building a Second Brain and founder of Forte Labs, which runs the course of the same name.

• The AI Second Brain Is Back: What’s New for Cohort 2

  In March, we launched the inaugural cohort of The AI Second Brain (AISB), a new immersive education program years in the making. It marked my return to teaching after three years of intensive research and experimentatio…

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Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

• Two Reasons Why Daycare Isn't the Answer to Low Fertility

  Time is the ultimate limit, and expectations reset on social structures.

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Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.

• Hybrid work doesn't just boost productivity. It leads us to reproduce more too. Economists find that when remote work opportunities rise, fertility rates do too. For every 3 couples that work from home at least a day a week, an extra child is born. Flexibility is pro-family.

  remote workeconomistsRelated

Art critic, broadcaster and author; wrote on art for The Independent and The Sunday Telegraph and presents BBC art documentaries. Author of Caravaggio: A Life Sacred and Profane.

• My Conversation with Tyler has gone live today (recorded in Arlington, back in April) - do have a listen - there's always more to hear about Vermeer!

  conversationswithtyler.com

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Economist at Brown; writes ParentData and the books Expecting Better and Cribsheet, reading the evidence behind pregnancy and parenting advice.

• What “Trimester Zero” Should Teach Us Instead

  We need comprehensive fertility education — not supplements

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Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

• "The bull market didn't start in March 2009. It started in 1776." My latest on expecting the unexpected from U.S. stocks:

  ofdollarsanddata.com

  AmericaRelated

Writer and former McKinsey/BCG strategy consultant; author of The Pathless Path and Good Work, about leaving the default career track. Publishes the Boundless newsletter and podcast.

• ShortWhen I visited Taiwan that April, I had matched with my wife on Tinder, but we never met, and I didn

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• The labor market has been steadily tightening, albeit just a notch--and maybe in absolute terms it is still loose. Unemployment rate stable/edging down while job openings stable/edging up. Ratio of V/U has risen from a low of 0.87 in December to 1.03 in April.

  AI and jobsRelated

Social scientist at King's College London; writes The Great Gender Divergence on why societies differ in how they treat women.

• How does Female Emancipation affect GDP?

  This essay thus explores the economic effects of female emancipation - in terms of labour, marriage and fertility.

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• Chair Warsh's preferred (?) inflation signal measure picking up a little but remains muted compared to other measures. Trimmed mean PCE which throws out extremes was a 2.5% annual rate in April and 2.3% over the last year.

  inflationRelated

• Core PCE inflation in April was below expectations while still very high. Annual rates: 1 month: 2.9% 3 months: 3.8% 6 months: 3.8% 12 months: 3.3%

  inflationRelated

Lawyer and everyday-carry gear reviewer who publishes scored knife, flashlight and multitool reviews at Everyday Commentary.

• The End of an Era and Why Fixed Blade Manufacturing is Hard

  On March 20, 2026 Bark River closed its doors. Here is my article from Gear Junkie covering their closure. It was an ignominious end to the brand. Here is a Reddit post with the Facebook post from Mike Stewart detailing…

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Managing partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the blog The Irrelevant Investor and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Ben Carlson.

• Micron just went on an all-time heater. Today at the open, Micron was the 10th largest stock in the S&P 500. Over the last five years, the average rank was 89. It ran from 127 last April to 10 today. Chart by @mattcerminaro

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Member of technical staff at Anthropic. He has led ML/AI teams at Amazon, Alibaba and Lazada, and writes about LLMs, recommender systems and engineering at eugeneyan.com.

• Mozilla fixing more bugs in April that the past 15 months is what riding the exponential looks like 🎢

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Guardian columnist and environmental campaigner; wrote Feral and Regenesis, and argues for rewilding and against the food system as it is.

• Get the Money out of Politics

  There’s a really simple way of ensuring that politics belongs to the people, not to the ultra-rich. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 30th April 2026 How do we know whether political funding is corrupt? Mostl…

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Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.

• In April 2026, US equities saw light in the midst of war and chaos. The S&P 500 rose 10.43%, its best month since April 2020, coming of COVID lows, and the ERP for the index dropped to 4.37%. The market was right then in being upbeat about the future. Is it right again?

  damodaran.com

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Guardian columnist and environmental campaigner; wrote Feral and Regenesis, and argues for rewilding and against the food system as it is.

• Alternating Current

  If this crucial circulation system shuts down, the civilisational impacts will be irreversible. So why isn’t it a top priority? By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 23rd April 2026 The poor and middle pay taxes,…

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Co-founder of AngelList. Writes and podcasts at nav.al in short, aphoristic pieces on startups, wealth and judgement rather than long essays.

• A Return to Code

  You’re listening to the Naval Podcast. This is Nivi, his regular co-host. Today we’re going to talk about vibe coding. Let me tee up the conversation with a tweet from Naval from March 23rd: “AI coding agents can now de…

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Guardian columnist and environmental campaigner; wrote Feral and Regenesis, and argues for rewilding and against the food system as it is.

• Self-Burn

  Thanks to Trump, people around the world are scrambling to get out of fossil fuels. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 18th April 2026 Donald Trump has done more to accelerate the energy transition than anyone…

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Co-founder of Foundry Group and of Techstars. Has blogged at Feld Thoughts since 2004 and has written or co-written nine non-fiction books on startups and venture capital.

• Give First, Build Right with Eric Ries

  On April 29 at 10am PT, Eric Ries and I are doing a free fireside chat for startup communities. We're going to talk about the lessons we've learned as founders, investors, and advisors - and the books we've each just pu…

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Machine learning engineer working on recommender systems, personalization and information retrieval. Previously worked on LLMs and LLM infrastructure at Mozilla.ai and on ML and recsys at Duo, Tumblr, Automattic and Comcast; wrote the 'What are embeddings?' text and ran the Normconf conference.

• Build yourself flowers

  This is an edited transcript of the keynote I gave at the Applied Machine Learning Conference in Charlottesville, VA in April 2026. I first wrote a draft of this talk by hand. This part took 2 months. I then recorded my…

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Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.

• Delighted to see the Covid Inquiry used one of our Winton Centre graphics in their vaccine report (p 215). But they chose the 'medium' exposure (February), rather than the more relevant 'low' exposure (March). I think this is misleading.

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FreeBSD developer and former FreeBSD Security Officer; founder of the Tarsnap online backup service and author of the scrypt key derivation function.

• 20 Years on AWS and Never Not My Job

  I created my first AWS account at 10:31 PM on April 10th, 2006. I had seen the announcement of Amazon S3 and had been thinking vaguely about the problem of secure backups &mdash; even though I didn't start Tarsnap until…

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Guardian columnist and environmental campaigner; wrote Feral and Regenesis, and argues for rewilding and against the food system as it is.

• Gateway Dump

  How the deregulation of waste disposal has turned this country into a magnet for the mafia. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 1st April 2026 This country’s a dump. I don’t mean that metaphorically. I mean it…

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Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.

• Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were down, but the market was remarkably well-behaved.

  bit.ly

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Guardian columnist and environmental campaigner; wrote Feral and Regenesis, and argues for rewilding and against the food system as it is.

• A Potential Termination Event

  Cascading failure across the global food system is a real and horrific possibility, which most governments are doing nothing to avert. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 25th March 2026 The fate of environment…

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Co-founder of Ethereum. Publishes long essays on mechanism design, governance and what cryptography is for, and returns to earlier positions to say which parts they no longer hold.

• My self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026

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Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.

• April Cools Post: New York vs Chicago Pizza

  Happy April Cools! My not-tech post this year is Chicago vs New York Pizza is the Wrong Argument, which is mostly an excuse for me to talk about Chicago food. See here for all of the other April Cools submissions. As of…

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Author of Recoding America; founded Code for America and was US deputy chief technology officer from 2013 to 2014. Writes Eating Policy on why governments cannot do what they decide to do.

• Serious State Capacity Notes for April 1

  This is not an April Fools post, but it does feature an amazing April. Plus, becoming a serious country again, and what AI will do for intergovernmental software collaboratives.

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Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.

• Chicago vs New York Pizza is the Wrong Argument

  It&rsquo;s April Cools! It&rsquo;s like April Fools, except instead of cringe comedy you make genuine content that&rsquo;s different from what you usually do. For example, last year I talked about The best introductory…

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Software engineer who writes about low-level and systems programming at nullprogram.com; author of the Elfeed feed reader, the Endlessh SSH tarpit and Enchive.

• 2026 has been the most pivotal year in my career… and it's only March

  In February I left my employer after nearly two decades of service. In the moment I was optimistic, yet unsure I made the right choice. Dust settled, I’m now absolutely sure I chose correctly. I’m happier and better for…

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American senior staff engineer working on developer and user experience and open source; writes at adamdehaven.com.

• March Madness is here. It’s like Christmas

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Author of Recoding America; founded Code for America and was US deputy chief technology officer from 2013 to 2014. Writes Eating Policy on why governments cannot do what they decide to do.

• State Capacity Roundup, March 13

  Civil service reform, civil service reform, and civil service reform. Plus a hidden gem on program integrity.

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Author of The Simple Path to Wealth and of the jlcollinsnh.com stock series on index-fund investing.

• Two weeks from today, on March 5th, I'll be hosting a webinar along with Morgan Housel to discuss: How to Build Wealth Simply and Spend it Wisely If you care to join us, and I hope you do, here's the link:

  us06web.zoom.us

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Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.

• OSR questioning the Covid Inquiry's claim that modelling 'established' 23,000 fewer deaths if mandatory lockdown imposed a week earlier on March 16th. In fact this estimate is not only very uncertain, but also assumes voluntary measures were brought forward a week, to March 9th
  Quoting@StatsRegulationWe have today written to the Covid-19 inquiry regarding the presentation of statistical modelling in the Executive Summary of its Module 2 report👇

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Swedish open source developer; creator and lead maintainer of curl and libcurl, and a co-founder of the Rockbox project.

• dancer-416 — Dancer 4.16 - snapshot of the last Dancer release we made on March 18 2001

  Commitsimported from the 4.16 tarball

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Roboticist; co-founded iRobot and Rethink Robotics, directed the MIT AI Lab, and publishes a scorecard grading his own dated predictions about AI, robots and self-driving.

• AI: great expectations

  This time around I decided on a guest column. The guest is a 37 years ago younger me, and this post is one that I wrote for Manufacturing Engineering in March of 1988. It was for the last page of the trade magazine, in…

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Engineering leader and writer; wrote The Manager's Path and Platform Engineering, and blogs at Elided Branches.

• 10 Years of Engineering Ladders

  &nbsp;On March 26, 2015, I posted a short blog post to the Rent the Runway engineering blog, Sharing Our Engineering Ladder, with a quick intro to the RTR engineering career ladder and links to both spreadsheet and long…

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Design engineer and illustrator; makes visual essays on programming, anthropology and what language models do to the way people write.

• May 2025

  In a wonderfully dramatic change to my life, I became a mother two months ago. My son was born at the end of March via an unplanned but otherwise uncomplicated c-section. Parenthood has been predictably overwhelming, ex…

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Roboticist; co-founded iRobot and Rethink Robotics, directed the MIT AI Lab, and publishes a scorecard grading his own dated predictions about AI, robots and self-driving.

• Five new technology predictions for the next decade

  On March 26th I skeeted out five technology predictions, talking about developments over the next ten years through January 1st, 2036. I’ll incorporate these new predictions into my scorecard posts (every Jan 1st) and s…

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Author of The Simple Path to Wealth and of the jlcollinsnh.com stock series on index-fund investing.

• Deja vu all over again

  April 7, 2025 Deja vu all over again A few short years ago my blog comment section and social media were blowing up. Panic was in the air. The comments were varied, but uniformly convinced this time was different. As a…

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Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.

• America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back

  On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make Americ…

  AmericaRelated

Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.

• Gamer Games for Non-Gamers

  It&rsquo;s April Cools! It&rsquo;s like April Fools, except instead of cringe comedy you make genuine content that&rsquo;s different from what you usually do. For example, last year I talked about the 3400-year history…

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Design engineer and illustrator; makes visual essays on programming, anthropology and what language models do to the way people write.

• March 2025

  Well, I've had a dramatic start to the year. Normally, the design agency I joined a short eight months ago, unexpectedly closed down in January. Despite running for a decade and working with almost every major tech comp…

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Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.

• Twitter/X Restored

  My Twitter/X account was compromised from February 26th to March 3rd, but I confirm that I’ve regained control of it now. Thank you to everyone who helped make it happen. Fortunately, I still had access to Nostr during…

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General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.

• Network School 2025

  Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.

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Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.

• How old is the name 'Daniel'?

  It&rsquo;s April Cools! It&rsquo;s like April Fools, except instead of cringe comedy you make genuine content that&rsquo;s different what you usually do. For example, last year I talked about the strangest markets on th…

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Astrophysicist and coffee researcher; author of The Physics of Filter Coffee and The Physics of Espresso, and writer of the Coffee ad Astra blog on brewing science and equipment.

• Recent Insights into Espresso Dynamics April 14 Chicago Conference

  I will be presenting a conference on the topic of espresso dynamics during SCA 2024 in Chicago !

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Computer performance engineer working on datacenter performance at OpenAI, previously Netflix and Sun/Joyent. Author of Systems Performance and BPF Performance Tools, and creator of flame graphs.

• USENIX @SREcon APAC CFP is due in two weeks (March 2nd):

  brendangregg.com

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Marketing author and daily blogger; founder of the altMBA and the Akimbo workshops, and author of books including Purple Cow and This Is Marketing.

• Join me and thousands of school leaders on the 3rd and 4th of March at the School Leaders Bootcamp to unleash your leadership potential! Register here -

  bit.ly

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Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.

• COVID-19 risk perception: a longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom

  In this study, we present results from five cross-sectional surveys on public risk perception of COVID-19 and its association with health protective behaviours in the UK over a 10-month period (March 2020 to January 202…

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