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Eugene Yan x.com
Mozilla fixing more bugs in April that the past 15 months is what riding the exponential looks like 🎢
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20 September
19 September
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korrents.com
AI scaling laws require exponentially more compute and resources to produce only linear gains in model intelligence.Their words
all of our scaling laws show that you need exponential compute and resources to make linear improvements in intelligence.
18 September
17 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Solar power's exponential growth will continue until all other energy sources are far below 0.1%.Their words
The solar power exponential will continue until all other energy sources are <<0.1%
14 September
13 September
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Their words
There's no privacy expectation although you might rely on their discretion.
11 September
6 September
5 September
1 September
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korrents.com
OpenAI's approach to fixing its AI alignment problems is fatally flawed and misdirected.Their words
My worry continues to be that their fundamental approach is fatally flawed, and they are not focusing on the right things.
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In most of the world there is: no real willingness to solve problems nor an acceptance of people offering to solve their problems (out of pride) simply too much regulation so the problem cannot be solved without a license or long approval time very low standards of what is deemed acceptable so the problem isn't seen as a problem in the first place
31 August
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At the limit, and also well before that limit is reached, if all you do is fix the bugs, the AI will learn perfect optimization of reward, will realize not to reward hack in the perfect test environments, then turn around and reward hack in the imperfect real world environments.
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The safety guardrails in a way make it more dangerous not less I think because after rejecting you it becomes kind of a pedantic child that will just reject whatever If in that moment your server will go down and it feels it's related it could just reject fixing it
25 August
18 August
3 August
From one piece Waymo Co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov: The Demo Is Only 1% Of The Work 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
reliability and performance lives on this exponential ladder of nines. So, getting to that first 90% or 99%, that's the easy part. But then every next nine that you want to add, that takes about 10 times more effort.
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Their words
common failure mode is picking the tech that gives you the fastest early ramp, riding that steep curve, feeling like you're winning, projecting that, you know, steep slope into the future and feeling like the sky is the limit, and then hitting the plateau, and discovering that the technology path that you picked actually flattens out way before the performance that is required by your product.
30 July
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it tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between "very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity" and "the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño."
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
29 July
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Their words
the other piece of advice I would have is try to identify what is the what is the exponential in the world that has both the steepest curve and will go the longest. And you know many decades ago this curve was was Moore's law and that probably was you know that was at the time like clearly the right thing to invest on. I think right now it's AI progress
27 July
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I think evals, they outlive the harness a little bit, but not by that much. Like an eval might live for maybe one, two, three model generations, but nowadays the you know, we're on the exponential. The model is improving so quickly, very often we just saturate the eval, and then we have to throw it away, and we have to come up with a new eval.
16 July
15 July
From one piece Context engineering with Dex Horthy 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
We tried this. We built a lights off software factory in July of 2025 and by November we had shut it down. I think it takes about three to six months of you shipping all the time with nobody reading the code before you realize like, wow, this is getting way worse and it's easier to start over than it is to fix it.
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And uh it's still worth it's still worth not reading the code for most of the time at the cost of every once in a while I'm going to have to spend two weeks fixing an issue by hand. And I don't believe that anymore because I think the amount of code we're able to write now is actually like 10xed or 100xed and I think the problem's just getting worse.
1 July
30 June
10 June
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when you have an exponentially growing curve, I think the way that an exponential curve feels is it's growing so quickly that the the kind of emotional feeling is it can't possibly keep going, right?
28 May
20 May
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I think this is kind of leads to another way that Rust really helps with reliability, which is that if you're refactoring, I think Rust is really good at telling you all the places you need to update. I've done this sometimes where I would refactor something. I change the code. I change the return type or whatever it is, and then I just fix the compiler errors and until the compiler stops shouting. And then once I've done that, I've updated every place I need to update.
5 March
27 February
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Their words
and then as things hit invisible asymptotes those same loud voices who write viral essays have curiously moved on to other things.
16 February
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It's interesting that the Shorter hobby businesses all draft off superstars in the legacy hobby, but make their vast majority of their money from people who will of course never come close to the level superstars - you'd still go to pickleball and talk Nadal vs Federer, you'd still go to Top Golf and make Tiger Woods jokes.
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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but at the same time, we're spending $10 billion to train the next model because there's an exponential scale up. And so the company loses money. Each model makes money, but the company loses money.
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The counterarguments against it are I'll politely call them fishy. Um, uh and yet it doesn't happen and we sell the chips because there's there's so much money. There's so much money riding on it.
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One is at every moment of this exponential, the extent to which the world outside it didn't understand it. This is This is a bias that's often present in history where anything that actually happened looks inevitable in retrospect.
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I will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential.
25 January
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there's a there's a series of of questions that I ask to to diagnose why is growth slowing in this order because it's one of these things where the first one that's a problem, if you don't fix that, it doesn't matter if you fix one of the ones below.
10 January
17 October 2025
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Their words
I do, but it's business as usual because we're we're in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades. And when you look at GDP, it's basically the GDP curve that is an exponential weighted sum over so many aspects of the industry. Everything is gradually being automated has been for hundreds of years.
16 October 2025
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Their words
the only thing that we know is that models will improve. Will it be incremental? Will it be exponential? I mean somewhere in between. Who knows? But uh what you have to believe is that you get better as models get better. Your organization gets better as models get better.
1 September 2025
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korrents.com
Shipping a half-baked product permanently damages customer trust, even after it is later fixed.Their words
When AWS ships a service which is half-baked, it diminishes customer trust in AWS as a whole; even if the problems in that service ultimately get corrected (either by fixing them or in some cases by simply getting rid of a service which should never have existed in the first place) the memory of a failed launch will live on in customers' minds for years to come.
18 August 2025
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Their words
if it produces incorrect code our philosophy is don't fix the code fix the context that cursor had that produced the bad code
16 June 2025
14 June 2025
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Their words
Yeah, these are great work that shows what's possible. The approach doesn't scale currently. Three days of Google's server time can solve one high school math format there. This is not a scalable prospect, especially with the exponential increase as the complexity increases.
20 April 2025
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