The fact that we don't have swarms of drones prefabbing houses in the relatively benign atmosphere of our planet should be evidence that maybe these claims aren't quite matched with reality.
Making qualitative claims about alignment, based on quantitative data on mundane use case tests, was bullshit when Anthropic did it, and it is bullshit now when OpenAI does it. You cannot conclude one from the other.
Many companies take a perfectly great speaker and every year or two release a "V2" with claims of big improvements. Usually it's just differences rather than being better.
Additionally, making bold declarations about the extremity of contemplative experience is a decent way to keep people talking about meditation, which can be a fairly boring subject.
But I also think that this is not mutually incompatible with the view that there's also overdiagnosis. And I think we need very careful ways of making diagnosis because the conventional way is you take a history from a person about what the problem is.
its Chrome extension provides near-instant text summaries of YouTube videos. Over the past year, I’ve saved myself many hours by dumping podcasts I feel like I should listen to for work into Recall and simply skimming the summaries.
Nuclear's never had its Ford moment or its Tesla moment, if you want to put it that way. And that's what Valor Atomics is working on doing. We have nuclear reactors that are more manufactured than constructed and uh they're extremely safe and we think the combination of these two things is going to allow us to scale nuclear fision and make energy 10 times cheaper for humanity.
The Rumpelstiltskin effect is not a claim that receiving a diagnosis is a net benefit or a net positive. It is a claim that the mere act of receiving a diagnosis can be beneficial.
The French and Germans will ban Tesla FSD to protect their car industry that's being decimated by Chinese EVs and Tesla Allowing Tesla full self driving would make it so popular that it'd probably the end of their car industry Because no French or German car has self driving like Tesla, many customers would probably flock to Tesla
what I don't like about it I didn't like about it then and still don't like about it is it's not defensible. Nobody's going to say I'm not agile. Oh no, I prefer rigid development. Oh, I prefer inflexible development. No, everybody's going to say that they're agile, which extreme doesn't have that problem.
if you ask a person when was Abraham Lincoln born and they don't know the date. They could sit there, they could think about it for a week, if they if they don't have access to Wikipedia or something, they're not going to be able to do better answering that question if they thought about it for a week compared to 5 seconds. Same with the model.
I suspect the same is often true in the rest of Europe: NIMBYism is the ultimate reason why the French and German states don’t solve their housing shortages through unbanning densification, but since the claims of the NIMBYs have been preemptively conceded by everyone, NIMBYism has basically remained latent.
And what's fascinating is today when China claims whatever its historical lands are, they either choose the Mongol Yuan Dynasty or the Manchu Qing Dynasty when the Han were subjugated people.
You can give it a Bash tool so it can ripgrep its way through the codebase. You can give it some queryable codebase index, an LSP server, a vector database. In the end it doesn't matter much. The bigger the codebase, the lower the recall. Low recall means that your agent will, in fact, not find all the code it needs to do a good job.
When someone is asked to reflect on their own life, they draw on a wide range of experiences. When people are asked about “the world”, they recall a very small number of recent events (the availability bias).
Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense of the other two services, and faces regulatory headwinds that both Waymo and Zoox have long been able to satisfy. They are not on a path to becoming a real service.
Over the past few decades, journal editors and peer-reviewers have increasingly insisted that papers must present large datasets that have been treated using complex statistical methods in order to make even the mildest claims about what caused what.
You need reproducible builds in order to verify that the app really does what it claims, really encrypts data in a way that it is described on its website. For that you need to make your apps open source for any researchers to have a look at it.
The interesting Tesla point is people always looked at it and said, "It's the iPhone of cars." No, it's not. What's happening is that cars are becoming Android with no iPhone. And then Tesla is just selling and is is in that metaphor Tesla is just another android phone maker
As AI gets more capable, the risks associated with mistaken claims, fraudulent claims, or too-vague-to-be-verified claims will increase, and a cloud of suspicion between competitors could drive corner-cutting (indeed, this is happening already and could get worse).
Insurance: Geico is usually among the best for most cars, although for Teslas you should check out Tesla Insurance and Costco's "Connect" insurance, which is what I am using as of 2024.
The book describing how and why empowered teams power the most best product companies like Tesla, Netflix, or Apple. My experience at Uber matches that of the book. My only regret is I could not read it earlier.
In Google, even though we call it 10 blue links, you get annoyed if you don’t even have the right link in the first three or four. The eye is so tuned to getting it right. LLMs are fine. You get the right link maybe in the 10th or ninth. You feed it in the model. It can still know that that was more relevant than the first.
So if you remember this information in different times in different places, it’s more accessible at different times in different places because it’s not overfitted in an AI way of thinking about things. It’s not overfitted to one particular context. But that’s also why the memories that we call upon the most also feel like they’re just things that we read about almost.
So Tesla hasn’t found a different, better way to bring driverless technology to market. Waymo is just so far ahead that it’s dealing with challenges Tesla hasn’t started thinking about.
Any true safety improvement for Tesla is good to have, but is much more likely due to comparison against an "average" vehicle (12 years old in the US) which is much less safe than any recent high-end vehicle regardless of manufacturer, and probably not driven on roads as safe on average as where Teslas are more popular.
Safi Bahcall, Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries: How does group behavior and the science of phase transitions manifest itself? The author, a physicist and entrepreneur, tries to show why some wild new ideas become game changers. I was skeptical, but when someone like Danny Kahneman claims “This book has everything: new ideas, bold insights, entertaining history and convincing analysis. Not to be missed by anyone who wants to understand how ideas change the world,” I pay attention.
I honestly don't recall that much from this book. I read it fairly early on in my Apollo exploration. I'd recommend Eyles' Sunburst and Luminary, above, as a better starting point if you're interested in the computers that flew Apollo.
The likelihood that someone is providing high-quality information in these domains is lower than in less controversial areas like physics or neuroscience.
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