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Marc Littlemore Mastodon
This is an interesting read about "outcome engineering" from the CTO of Onebrief, Cory Ondrejka.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
11 September
9 September
5 September
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Their words
We can’t count on surrogate blood markers to guide the results of cardiovascular clinical outcome trials.
The Coronary Artery Inflammation Controversyerictopol.substack.com
4 September
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korrents.com
Elections are often decided by narrow margins.Their words
That’s not a particularly likely outcome, but elections are often decided on the margins.
3 September
2 September
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Their words
Its worse than ever with AI, but these people existed before.
1 September
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Their words
I am telling you this is inevitable, which means I am also saying that “banning open source,” or for that matter any other regulation, will not solve the problem. Given the inevitability of this outcome, I think it is in fact plausible to argue that we should want more open-weight models to maximally empower our self-defense.
24 August
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Their words
And the evidence suggests that wanting pursuit of a goal is mediated or modulated at least by dopamine whereas actually the liking the pleasure you might get from an outcome is not that seems to be related to uh opioid neurotransmitters in the brain.
20 August
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Their words
The demand for explanations of low fertility is entirely a demand for variables which will reduce these technical trends to near zero.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
18 August
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korrents.com
Having too many decision-makers in a group effectively means having none, producing a muddled, unfocused outcome.Their words
Too many decision makers means there's effectively none, and the result is a muddled experience that lacks direction and focus.
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Their words
I think it can be a slog, it can be bureaucratic, it can be painful, but when the when the outcome actually happens and you deliver the result, there is no place where you can have a bigger impact on on this country.
17 August
10 August
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korrents.com
The worst outcome of AI for young people is that it takes away their agency and their motivation to learn.Their words
The absolute bad outcome is that our young generation, their agency and human level motivation of learning and living is taken away by tools. So doom scrolling, passive watching of shorts, all this are not helping agency, human agency.
7 August
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Their words
there are definitely some ideas that are worth funding with $50 million or zero dollars, but not $5 million. Um you won't run the experiment. It'll be really frustrating experience. You'll get an ambiguous outcome.
16 July
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korrents.com
Competitive pressure among AI developers could cause loss of control even without anyone intending itTheir words
But in a climate of rushed decisions and fierce competition, we could lose control over AI even if almost no one wants that outcome.
13 June
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korrents.com
The war in Ukraine will prove as historically significant in its outcome as the First World War was.Their words
The war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the First World War, and there is every reason to think that its outcome will be of comparable historical significance.
30 April
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Their words
In the face of weakened renewable roll-out in Australia, the most likely outcome is simply that coal and gas just generate more, and for many more years past their shut down date.
22 April
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Their words
We don't ask the students to write essays because we love reading their amazing essays. We ask them to write essays because they we want them to go through a thought process, which helps them learn something.
14 March
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Their words
players who are also commentators give better commentary than people who are just commentators. Stock analysts who never invest have zero skin in the game.
12 March
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Their words
But if you know anything about my obsession with selection bias, you can predict the outcome: when you expand access from a population that excludes more students to one that excludes fewer, you’re very likely to see declining performance.
13 February
12 February
From one piece Chaos and Misallocation under Price Controls (with 2 co-authors) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Feast-or-famine corner outcomes, not modest proportional belt-tightening, are the generic result of price controls.Their words
This paper shows that feast or famine, not modest belt-tightening, is the generic outcome of price controls.
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Their words
We show that equilibrium generically occurs at neither the Harberger nor Glaeser-Luttmer benchmark. Cost-minimizing suppliers drive allocations to vertices, not interiors. Corners are not an assumption but an outcome about what cost-minimizing suppliers choose. The correct benchmark is corners, not random, and corners generate qualitatively different welfare properties: losses far larger than either efficient or random distributions, and discontinuous jumps from small parameter perturbations.
25 January
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Outcome Rating Scale (ORS)Their words
The ORS is a brief, 4-item measure designed to assess areas of life functioning known to change as a result of therapeutic intervention. It takes less than one minute to complete and score.
15 January
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korrents.com
Local-first software will not become the dominant architecture, and that is an acceptable outcome.Their words
Local-first is not going to win, but that's okay We'll explore the complexities of traditional stack (db-server-frontend), develop a theory of software evolution: which systems succeed and why.
6 January
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korrents.com
When most people expect a top-five-per-cent outcome, mass disappointment is guaranteed.Their words
But when a majority of people expect a top 5% outcome the result is guaranteed mass disappointment.
1 January
From one piece The Silent Cost of Bad Habits | James Clear 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So one of the core lessons of atomic habits is that every action you take is like a vote for the type of person you wish to become. So, when you show up at the gym today, you are casting a vote for being the type of person who doesn't miss workouts. When you sit down and make one sales call, you are casting a vote for being a salesperson. When you write one sentence, you are casting a vote for being a writer. And no, doing one push-up does not transform your body, but it does cast a vote for that identity.
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Their words
are your small actions accumulating or are they evaporating? You know, are you doing small things each day that are oriented toward a larger outcome or are you doing small things each day that are just kind of like one-offs and don't really add up? In a lot of ways, I feel like the two time frames that matter most in life are 10 years and 1 hour
28 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Player of GamesTheir words
The Player of Games by Ian M. Banks is about a champion board-game player who gets roped into an espionage operation infiltrating an alien culture where political power is determined by the outcome of a uniquely complex strategy game. Set in a far-future human civilization run by a constellation of (mostly) benevolent and inscrutable AIs, Banks's science fiction is more relevant than ever.
9 December 2025
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Their words
And there are a whole bunch of people who are employed not always by the government just as much by the private sector who are much more interested in adherence to uh approved procedure than they are in quality of outcome.
23 November 2025
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korrents.com
A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.Their words
Both of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
31 October 2025
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Their words
The never right outcome is, “Oh, you’ve said the wrong thing. You should be removed now.” That should never ever be a thing we should lean towards.
17 October 2025
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Their words
and we'll gradually layer all this stuff everywhere and there will be fewer and fewer people who understand it and that there will be a sort of this like scenario of a gradual loss of control and understanding of what's happening that to me seems most likely outcome of how all this stuff will go down.
26 September 2025
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Their words
when you learn to play chess you have the grand the long-term goal is winning the game and yet you you can't you um you want to be able to learn from shorter term things like you know taking the your opponent's pieces um and so you do that by having a value function which predicts the long-term outcome
21 September 2025
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Their words
management is just about in my mind having an outcome. So you want to get something done. That's the thing. You have a northstar. You have a vision and you're just trying to figure out how to use the resources that you have to get that thing done.
2 September 2025
27 August 2025
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Their words
I think that changing societal outcome requires changing minds, and the "heft" that comes from many authors with different backgrounds endorsing a certain set of conclusions is hard to replicate with a link to a shared ChatGPT chat.
4 July 2025
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korrents.com
Most conditional branches in software are strongly biased toward one outcome rather than close to fifty-fifty.Their words
most branches are heavily "biased" one way or another - e.g. a "branch taken" rate of 10% or 90% is more common than 50%
30 May 2025
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Their words
There is everything to play for, and we can still all come out better off.
24 May 2025
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Their words
But ultimately, there’s a certain point in the Second World War where the outcome is absolutely inevitable because the guys that lose can’t compete with the numbers that the guys are going to win.
24 April 2025
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Their words
Finally, I’ll explain a deeper issue with the whole idea: we can’t neatly divide the causes of an outcome into slices that add up to 100%.
21 January 2025
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On changing their mind
Having fallen into the East Asia - Africa Trap before, I can tell you precisely why so many people make this mistake.
7 January 2025
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korrents.com
Planning is fundamentally a search problem: explore paths, predict outcomes, and pick the best one.Their words
Planning, at its core, is a search problem. You search among different paths towards the goal, predict the outcome (reward) of each path, and pick the path with the most promising outcome.
26 March 2024
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Their words
It means that you have to extend yourself with empathy to the person you're seeking to serve, to the person who the work is for. And you have to extend yourself not just through space, but through time into the future, announcing something that might or might not work. You don't know yet. That's what makes it creative. If you exert the emotional labor to do those two things, sometimes you will have a successful creative outcome. That's a choice.
4 March 2024
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Their words
But the biggest global thing that happened was redrawing the map of the world and producing dozens, if not hundreds, of new states. That’s the outcome of the different processes of the 20th century.
9 November 2023
From one piece Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #400 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
China will incorporate Taiwan, peacefully or militarily, and from its own standpoint that outcome is not in doubt.Their words
Yes, China has been very clear that they’ll incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily, but that they will incorporate it from their standpoint is 100% likely.
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Their words
But we run the simulations to see what happens, not if we knew what happens, we wouldn’t run the simulation. So whoever created this existence, they’re running it because they don’t know what’s going to happen, not because they do.
22 June 2023
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Their words
The third UI paradigm, represented by current generative AI, is intent-based outcome specification. The user tells the computer the desired result but does not specify how this outcome should be accomplished, such as the steps to be executed. Compared to traditional command-based interaction design, this completely reverses the locus of control.
AI Is First New UI Paradigm in 60 Yearsjakobnielsenphd.substack.com
26 August 2022
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Their words
As much as we might want to imagine that the greater currents push historical events largely on a predetermined path with but minor variations from what must always have been, in practice events are tremendously contingent on unpredictable variables.
9 August 2022
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Their words
Now, some decisions may have been good decisions that didn't work through no fault of the employee. And some may have been bad decisions that worked because the employee got lucky. So, you can't just look at the outcome, but you have to look at what What was the person thinking about when they made the decision?
1 June 2022
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