Sam Altman Blog
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From one piece Two days left to comment on HHS's vaccine category proposal 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
There are legitimate ways to improve our systems, but what they're likely planning isn't one of them.
Their words
Moving a vaccine out of that category adds significant implementation barriers that will erode access to vaccines.
korrents.com
Some coastal regions see bigger COVID waves in summer than in winter, unlike colder regions that peak in winter.Their words
The West, like California and Hawaii, has bigger waves in summer than in winter.
Their words
When it comes to the cybersecurity risks from advanced AI, very likely they will not come close to being as bad as either Covid or global warming.
Their words
I think the fact that the government took on debt during two crises to help households was a good trade-off.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
korrents.com
The specific vaccine brand or formulation matters less than simply getting vaccinated at all.Their words
There are nuances to consider for those seeking maximum protection, but ultimately, the best vaccine is the one you receive.
Your guide to fall 2026 vaccinesyourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
korrents.com
The current tech layoffs are pandemic over-hiring correcting itself, with AI as the convenient excuse.Their words
And I think what we're seeing right now with some of the layoffs is a testament to that, not AI. It's just that during the pandemic, a bunch of overhiring went on, and now AI is a convenient excuse to slim down. But I do also think AI is going to expose some roles as just not being productive ways for humans to spend their time, and therefore we must come up with new ways of spending their time.
korrents.com
Vaccine distribution schedules that miss the optimal protection window represent a policy failure.Their words
Our systems not matching up with the optimal protection window seems like a big policy failure.
korrents.com
AI risk is probably a totally manageable problem that will be brutally mismanaged, the way pandemic response was.Their words
it's just so easy for me to imagine the situation being like totally manageable but brutally mismanaged in practice in the same way as like maybe CO could have been avoided in the first place if the like Chinese response to CO was less of like a cover up and more of a like pandemic response and similarly like I could imagine a world where like the US response to CO was like way more functional but just like sometimes the the the response to societal problems is extremely dysfunctional.
Their words
So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
Their words
To put this same story another way, the European car industry in the early 2020s was a prime example of greedflation i.e. companies taking advantage of the COVID shock and other disruptions and to hike profits at the expense of consumers.
Their words
But what we found, at least at the psychological level, we did some of this research, older adults were much more resilient than younger adults.
Their words, before
There are obvious pricing problems in this scenario. With a new fab, a company can’t turn a profit selling a lagging-edge chip at the price that was previously dictated by a fully depreciated fab. Prices have to go up.
Their words now
The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
Their words
Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they're the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
Their words
We got inflation, but we did not get the devastation that would have been caused by price controls and rationing.
From one piece It shouldn't be easy to buy synthetic DNA fragments to recreate the 1918 flu virus 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
It should be hard — exceedingly hard — to obtain the synthetic DNA needed to recreate the virus that caused the deadly 1918 influenza pandemic without authorization. But my lab found that it’s surprisingly easy, even when ordering gene fragments from companies that check customers’ orders to detect hazardous sequences.
Their words
Both the genome sequences of pandemic viruses and step-by-step protocols to make infectious samples from synthetic DNA are now freely available online.
Lovedrcmnd.app
Meta Quest 2Their words
In 2020, standing around during Covid with my dick in my hand like everyone else, I got myself a Quest 2. It was amazing. I loved it.
Their words
And I notice that the tiny handful of people capable of caring about 200,000 people dying of neglected tropical diseases are the same tiny handful of people capable of caring about the next pandemic, or superintelligence, or human extinction.
In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruismastralcodexten.com
korrents.com
Fluvoxamine probably treats COVID, at about 60-40, and doctors should be prescribing it on those odds.Their words, before
At this point I'd give it 60-40 it works.
Their words now
More recent studies have found fluvoxamine does not treat COVID.
Their words, before
If you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Their words now
I had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
Their words
Real interest rates have steadily declined in all major economies for more than three decades. This decline was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis.
Lovedrcmnd.app
Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19Their words
Briefly, I think that this is one of the most important books so far of the twenty-first century.
From one piece Opinion: Manipulating viruses and risking pandemics is too dangerous. It's time to stop. 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
But perhaps the biggest question of all isn’t being asked insistently enough: Why is anyone trying to teach the world how to make viruses that could kill millions of people?
Their words
Like nuclear physics, with its potential for global catastrophe when put to destructive ends, the proliferation of pandemic biology ought to be considered a matter of international security.
Their words
Using history to understand our present is a great impulse, but it means some of the false myths we tell about the Black Death and Renaissance are doing new damage, one of the most problematic in my view being the idea that sitting back and letting COVID kill will somehow by itself naturally make the economy turn around and enter a period of growth and rising wages.
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