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Morgan Housel x.com
Good line: “The longer your holding period, the more chance that something you can’t forecast occurs.”
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
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The most obvious problem is that Marco Rubio continues to hold both the Secretary of State and national security advisor positions. This has been going on for nearly 18 months now and it's obviously not working well at all.
17 September
16 September
13 September
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Strong liability enforcement could be helpful in the AI debate. If your agent swarm goes rogue, you’re liable. If your weakly protected model gets jailbroken, you’re liable. If you serve a weakly protected OSS model, you’re liable.
9 September
7 September
6 September
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korrents.com
The fundamental challenge of alignment is generalization: holding values in situations the training never covered.Their words
The fundamental challenge of AI alignment is generalization.
25 August
24 August
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One is yes, I agree with you that this sort of behavior, doom scrolling, etc. occurs, but I think the evidence that there are dopamine hits when you're doing this isn't really very strong.
20 August
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The demand for explanations of low fertility is entirely a demand for variables which will reduce these technical trends to near zero.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
19 August
14 August
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then there will be a service that that prepares and delivers that food at cheaper than going to the grocery store. And if that happens, this occurs and food will be completely revolutionized.
3 August
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Turns out, the task of driving is not that dissimilar from the task of modeling language uh because of the social aspects of driving. You're kind of having a conversation with other dynamic actors in the world, but you're doing that in the space kind of body language of your agent, your car, as opposed to just the language of words.
2 August
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absolutely agree that product skills are probably the most durable. My build would just be there's a lot of people who have the title PM who haven't spent a lot of time building those skills in the last 5 years, but have gotten really good at communicating frameworks to leadership.
1 August
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Low corrosion resistant steels like K390 are great at holding an edge but only look nice and stay rust free in the driest of environments.
13 July
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korrents.com
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.Their words
Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I'd note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.
10 June
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korrents.com
There will be no central superintelligence that solves science; a good future is many people holding powerful tools.Their words
We don't believe in this like very centralized future where there should be a small number of institutions that um that basically are are advancing all this stuff. Our vision is not that there's going to be like some central super intelligence that solves all of science.
4 June
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Then the person who doesn't satiate in capital is going to have if they're being rational they're going to have a higher savings rate.
13 May
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In a sense, we're all turning into project managers, right? And and we can have an army of junior programmers called agents that will just spit out reams of code, but someone's got to have the big picture and review all of that. And so, increasingly our craft is going from one of writing the code to one of of reviewing the code and and building the architecture of the code and overseeing the work, if if you will.
12 May
26 March
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frontier model capabilities are always so clustered together as opposed to any one model having an unassailable edge.
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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And if my if my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on Earth. There's there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I if I buy that much compute.
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on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
12 February
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We show that equilibrium generically occurs at neither the Harberger nor Glaeser-Luttmer benchmark. Cost-minimizing suppliers drive allocations to vertices, not interiors. Corners are not an assumption but an outcome about what cost-minimizing suppliers choose. The correct benchmark is corners, not random, and corners generate qualitatively different welfare properties: losses far larger than either efficient or random distributions, and discontinuous jumps from small parameter perturbations.
7 January
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Immunity to Change: How to Overcome It and Unlock the Potential in Yourself and Your OrganizationTheir words
. Understanding how we grow and develop will help you become a better leader and a more empathetic colleague. More accessible than his academic work, this book also provides a framework for understanding underlying beliefs and motivations that might be holding you back.
6 January
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Cycles are so hard to predict, because it’s easier to forecast in straight lines.
2 January
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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But I guess like the notion of culture and of written record and of like passing down notes between each other. I don't think there's an equivalent of that with LM right now. So LM don't really have culture right now and it's kind of like one of the I think uh impediments I would say.
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And actually, you don't actually need or want the knowledge. I actually think that's probably actually holding back the neural networks overall because it's actually like getting them to rely on the knowledge a little too much sometimes.
16 September 2025
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Reading is attentional, not just informational.
14 May 2025
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The point is that if you think that money is the only thing holding you back from what you want to do, you're not thinking very clearly. There's always a way around it.
30 April 2025
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I think the lesson from all of that is that humans talking to humans and being together in the real world or a virtual world, is a naturally empathetic medium, which naturally leads to bonding, and though conflict sometimes occurs, it's just generally so much more promoting of our social norms and good interactions between people and positivity promoting.
24 March 2025
12 February 2025
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
BettermentTheir words
With Betterment, you still end up holding mostly Vanguard index funds, but they handle automatic rebalancing and minimizing your tax costs. I'm very happy with the service.
7 January 2025
9 December 2024
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Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
28 November 2024
24 August 2024
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If you buy a handful of index funds, sit on them for decades and never do another thing, you're likely to outperform nearly everyone who tries to beat the market by trading-including most professionals.
13 March 2024
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korrents.com
Raising yields on land already farmed is what keeps farming from taking more of the wild world.Their words
In other words, land sparing almost always occurs—it is just a question of where.
17 January 2024
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korrents.com
Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all.Their words
And they don’t see a need for a plan B, in case their forecast fails.
31 December 2023
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In a subtle but very real sense, every Lua function is an anonymous function.
14 December 2023
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I would love to see a trillion humans living in the solar system. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. That our solar system would be full of life and intelligence and energy.
9 August 2022
From one piece Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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So we we want people, that's the way we break out of fixation, is we notice the anomalies. The way we get stuck in fixation and making fixation errors is we explain away the anomalies, hold on to the original wrong impression until it's far too late.
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But the researchers who have investigated this find that scientists do the same thing. They have something that's called knowledge shields, the way all of us do, that that a a a variety of techniques for explaining away inconvenient data and anomalies. But what we're effectively doing is we're holding on to our story.
5 May 2021
8 September 2020
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Others are the golden threads of this world, holding it together at the seams with no more than a dozen people knowing about it. Remove one of these and it all comes crashing down.
How can you not be romantic about programming?thorstenball.com
25 August 2020
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korrents.com
Building automation that doesn't address the actual bottleneck to shipping adds noise rather than helping ship.Their words
If what's holding you back from shipping is, say, getting more customer input, or a brittle release process, or flaky monitoring, or missing tests, then all the bot does is to add noise. It doesn't help you ship.
13 November 2019
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