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Morgan Housel x.com
A Russian saying on nostalgia: "The past is more unpredictable than the future."
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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19 September
14 September
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korrents.com
The more one believes AI may cause unspecified unpredictable problems, the stronger the case for state control of it.Their words
The more we believe that IA may cause non-specified and unpredictable problems, the stronger the argument for its control by the state.
24 August
19 August
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Their words
Incredible watering down -- the Singularity is now redefined to mean "the rate of new firm creation has increased somewhat" Vernor Vinge described the Singularity as an event horizon past which everything (e.g. what happens tomorrow) becomes entirely unimaginable and unpredictable to human understanding
15 August
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Their words
The alternative way that you can reduce risk is actually just reducing consequence, right? And we would argue that that's a much better way to reduce risk. Odds uh are stochastic, right? Even if you do an enormous amount of risk reduction on odds and you do all this engineering, something's still going to happen, right? like just something's going to come out of left field and you can't predict everything.
7 August
30 June
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korrents.com
Writing well means knowing the exact moment to be unpredictable, which is not the same as raising the temperature.Their words
like when you're writing you sort of you sort of know in order for it to be good, you have to have an element of the unpredictable. And it's it's not just like increasing temperature in your mind or something, right? It's like knowing exactly the correct point when you want to make an unpredictable move.
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
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Their words
on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
5 October 2025
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I mean in my experience the typical win rate and I hate to use that term for experiments is is often something like 30 to 50%. Like usually you're not actually get like you're trying a bunch of things a lot of hypotheses turn out not to be true. you know, consumer products are very unpredictable like that.
31 March 2025
23 March 2025
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basically everything I thought would work out well, people use it less than I thought they did. And everything where I was like, I don't know, but let's build the thing. People love that.
26 March 2024
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reassurance is futile. Reassurance that we seek is like a warm bath, it feels great, and then you need more of it. Because the future is unpredictable, and when the future doesn't match what you hoped for, the reassurance you used to have isn't enough. You need more reassurance.
23 December 2023
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Biology is unpredictable, especially when the immune system is involved, and there is no guarantee that a drug that appears safe in animals will be safe in humans.
12 October 2022
26 August 2022
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As much as we might want to imagine that the greater currents push historical events largely on a predetermined path with but minor variations from what must always have been, in practice events are tremendously contingent on unpredictable variables.
8 February 2022
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korrents.com
Relying on metatables for method lookup tends to produce surprising, unpredictable behavior.Their words
This is a common problem with using metatables; they can lead to surprising, unpredictable behavior.
20 January 2021
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korrents.com
Software is not uniquely unpredictable; other engineering disciplines are hit by the same surprises and overruns.Their words
To assume that software is uniquely unpredictable is a special kind of arrogance.
5 April 2018
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