Related posts
David Spiegelhalter
x.com
https://t.co/pKtQD7mLtq Fun but challenging to compress a whole book (The Art of Uncertainty) into a 10-minute talk. Hope I got some main points over
compress challenging uncertainty
The the words it uses that this site has seen
least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone —
nothing here is a summary of this one.
Sources
All Korrents x.com Blog Recommends Newsletter Bluesky Site Mastodon Papers
Top people
David Spiegelhalter
Nat Bullard
Sabine Hossenfelder
Tim Ferriss
Chelsea Finn
Ruxandra Teslo
Dario Amodei
Ken Norton
Paul Millerd
Chip Huyen
Haley Nahman
Jason Evanish
Showing Profile →
Show everything
Hiding Show them again
Show them again
Further back ↓
Hiding Show them again
20 September
Writer living in Brooklyn and former Man Repeller features director; writes the weekly newsletter Maybe Baby on culture and consumption.
Their words
My general view on a partner with a challenging quality is that to make peace with it, two things need to be true: 1. They have enough wonderful qualities you value to compensate for it, and 2. They don't make you feel alone or lonely in dealing with the runoff of said challenging quality.
Show the whole quote
haleynahman.substack.com
16 September
Founder and CEO of Get Lighthouse, a management-coaching software company, and previously a product lead at KISSmetrics. Writes about leadership, management and product at jasonevanish.com.
One of the most challenging forms of customer validation is when you can see the pain and the need, but both you and the customer struggle to figure out the right shape of the solution within the constraints of what’s possible. Related
15 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
The most meaningful relationships are achieved when you and others can speak openly to each other about everything that's important, learn together, and understand the need to hold each other accountable to be as excellent as you can be. When you have such relationships with those you work with, you pull each other through challenging times; at the same time, sharing challenging work draws you closer and strengthens your relationships. This self-reinforcing cycle creates the success that allows you to pursue more and more ambitious goals. #principleoftheday Related
Writer on habits and decision-making; author of Atomic Habits and the 3-2-1 newsletter, and publisher of long-running book recommendation lists.
The loser has more in common with the winner than with the person sitting on the sidelines. The winner and the loser each had the courage to try. Both risked embarrassment. Both were willing to face uncertainty. Both were stubborn enough to continue. Success is endurance in disguise. It belongs to the person who can absorb the losses without absorbing the identity of "loser." It's the courage to start — and to stick with it — that is the real separator. Results tend to find the person who stays in the game. The sidelines are safe, but sterile. Nothing grows there. Related
Clinical psychologist, EMDR consultant and yoga teacher in Boulder, Colorado. Author of The Complex PTSD Workbook and EMDR Therapy and Somatic Psychology; writes on trauma, attachment and the nervous system.
Check out my latest yoga class on YouTube - Vagus Nerve Yoga: Own Your Story At a Physical level, this class invites some challenging balance postures that are both grounding and an invitation to celebrate your aliveness. Related
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
8 September
Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.
I spent much of the weekend talking with the team who did this work. Seb--and everyone else--acted with integrity and generosity throughout. Initially we believed the other team had also solved the problem. We wanted to collaborate and do a joint release. When we learned that they had Euler but not Navier-Stokes, we offered to let them go first, to suggest that they should be the ones to get the prize, and optionally for Tristan to be the lead author on a rewrite of the OpenAI proof. We felt it was challenging to offer the same to Levent (an Anthropic employee), who was not willing to talk or… Quoting @SebastienBubeck I would like to clarify a few things: 1) The screenshot is my reaching out to Levent to coordinate our releases. I hope it’s clear from the message that we came in with the best possible intentions. 2) I never ever asked for Levent to be removed from authorship of his own work (as indicated by my t… Anthropic OpenAI Related
7 September
Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs their internet startups alone — Nomads.com, Remote OK, Hoodmaps, Photo AI and Interior AI — and has written about it at levels.io since 2013. Posts as @levelsio.
Their words
There's an illusion here though that anyone will make it, which I've never portrayed to be true, entrepreneurship is one of the most challenging endeavours, kinda like pro sports
Show the whole quote
levels.io
6 September
Programmer, writer and musician; author of the Learn Code the Hard Way books and of Mongrel, the Ruby web server.
Video Compression Idea: Existing compression algorithm with an attached sequence of upscalers. Compress it at 720p and then choose/tune upscaler settings at varying boundaries to scale it up to different sizes without or minimal distortion. Related
25 August
Swedish programmer with degrees in engineering and psychology, author of Your Code as a Crime Scene and founder of CodeScene.
A question like ”do we still need to read AI generated code” is pointless in isolation. The answer depends on the task, and more specifically on the uncertainty inherent in each type of task. 🧵 Related
18 August
US science and technology adviser to the president, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; previously US chief technology officer and chief operating officer of Scale AI.
LLMs Europe
Their words
have to abide by this rule that was written before LLMs were even a thing. And that shows how challenging sort of the the the situation is if you try to set the line too firm to begin with.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
14 August
Author of The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans, and host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast.
12 August
Author of The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans, and host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast.
Professor at Stanford working on robot learning and meta-learning; co-founded Physical Intelligence.
From one piece
Chelsea Finn: This is the State of the Art in Robotics
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
But I think the PhD is an incredible opportunity to first learn a lot about how to handle uncertainty, how to pick good problems to work on.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
Their words
Now maybe this isn't completely out of the question but this would be quite challenging uh to do and that's because the calculus is a little bit different. We're not just running compute to optimize for a use case. We're actually running the robot in the real world and using the hardware and attempting the task in the real world.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
7 August
Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.
30 July
AI research engineer working on large language models. He writes the Ahead of AI newsletter and is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch).
Consistent with what I found with Qwen3.6 a while back: Claude Code uses 2-3x as many tokens than (many) other harnesses at similar success rate. - Unoptimized? - Buggy? - Deliberate (coz that helps it in more challenging cases)? Need to find some time to investigate more... Quoting @composio We ran Kimi K3 through 3 agent harnesses (Claude Code, Hermes, Kimi Code) on 28 identical tasks. All 3 harnesses completed the tasks at similar success rates, but the interesting story is token efficiency: the same task cost up to 30x more tokens depending on the harness. 🧵🧵 Anthropic Related
21 July
Genomics researcher and writer on science, biotech and the culture of research.
15 July
Writer and teacher on productivity and personal knowledge management. Author of Building a Second Brain and founder of Forte Labs, which runs the course of the same name.
Their words
When uncertainty rises, your horizon should become shorter-term.
Show the whole quote
fortelabs.com
14 July
Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.
Their words
It might have worked even better as two separate books, rather than as one short book trying to do two things. But Booth's writing is soothing, and his overall message — investing is simply a bet on human innovation and progress — is a truism worth repeating. Young people, in particular, might benefit from reading it.
Show the whole quote
jasonzweig.com
30 June
Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money, Same As Ever and The Art of Spending Money. Writes essays on investor behavior and posts frequently on X.
The History of Uncertainty, The Magic of The Long Term, And Overstating New Technology YT: https://t.co/DxhUDZ7sYh Spotify: open.spotify.com
Related
25 June
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
I am beside myself with joy that The Art of Uncertainty is out in paperback today! Fits in any (largish) pocket, easy to read on the train or while jammed into a steaming underground carriage. The perfect present for the nerd in your life. amazon.co.uk
Related
15 June
Engineering leader and writer; wrote An Elegant Puzzle, Staff Engineer and The Engineering Executive's Primer, and blogs at Irrational Exuberance.
Revised rules of engineering leadership. From early 2014 through late 2020, I was working in hypergrowth environments, which are challenging, but also educational. The most valuable feature of hypergrowth is that your mistakes reveal themselves next month rath…
Related
10 May
Machine learning engineer and consultant focused on RAG and retrieval systems. He writes about applied AI engineering at jxnl.co and is the author of the instructor library.
Their words
Files force the agent to compress experience into a form that can survive the thread.
Show the whole quote
Codex-maxxing jxnl.co
24 April
Writes Strange Loop Canon, on the intersection of technology, economics and business — "building models of the world to understand these problem areas and to define them better".
28 February
Genomics researcher and writer on science, biotech and the culture of research.
Their words
Even if AI can help design more effective drugs, timelines will not compress until we solve the operational and regulatory bottlenecks of trials.
Show the whole quote
writingruxandrabio.com
13 February
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
Their words
My one little bit, the one little bit of of fundamental uncertainty even on long time scales is this thing about tasks that aren't verifiable. Like, planning a mission to Mars, like, uh you know, doing some fundamental scientific discovery like like CRISPR, like, you know, writing a writing a novel. Hard to hard to verify those tasks.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
7 January
Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.
Their words
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
Show the whole quote
bringthedonuts.com
7 December 2025
Writer and developer. He runs the Latent Space newsletter and podcast about AI engineering, and writes essays on software and careers at swyx.io.
Their words
The highest art of followup is disagreement - challenging what they said, pushing back on it.
Show the whole quote
How To Podcast swyx.io
5 December 2025
American author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck and Everything Is F*cked. Writes essays and book reviews at markmanson.net.
OpenAI
Their words
ChatGPT, in particular, seemed to just want to validate me, tell me how great I was, reinforce any bad beliefs I might have had, and avoid saying anything uncomfortable.
Show the whole quote
markmanson.net
3 November 2025
Game designer; wrote A Theory of Fun for Game Design and worked on Ultima Online and Star Wars Galaxies.
17 October 2025
Founding member of OpenAI and former director of AI at Tesla; creator of nanoGPT and the term "vibe coding".
Their words
Um so I almost feel like because the internet is so terrible, we actually have to sort of like build really big models to compress all that. Uh most of that compression is memory work instead of like cognitive work. But what we really want is the cognitive part actually delete the memory
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
17 September 2025
Member of technical staff at Anthropic. He has led ML/AI teams at Amazon, Alibaba and Lazada, and writes about LLMs, recommender systems and engineering at eugeneyan.com.
I've been nerdsniped by the idea of Semantic IDs. Here's the result of my training runs: • RQ-VAE to compress item embeddings into tokens • SASRec to predict the next item (i.e., 4-tokens) exactly • Qwen3-8B that can return recs and natural language! eugeneyan.com
Related
5 August 2025
Design engineer and illustrator; makes visual essays on programming, anthropology and what language models do to the way people write.
2 August 2025
Runs global health R&D at Open Philanthropy; writes about the science and medicine that could exist and does not.
9 June 2025
Release engineering manager at the Wikimedia Foundation. Keeps a public log at tylercipriani.com of every book he reads, with a rating and notes.
Tariff uncertainty led me to purchase a keyboard shaped like a butterfly. This is what is known as the butterfly effect. Related
12 May 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
21 April 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
6 April 2025
Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.
Their words
The tariffs have frozen business activity because no one wants to take a big risk dependent on a policy that may change next week.
Show the whole quote
molsonhart.com
2 April 2025
Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.
The Power of Not Knowing Embracing uncertainty by confronting our inner stories - “I don’t know.” When were you last willing to say that in front of your team? How does it make you feel to even consider saying that? For most leaders, saying, “I…
Related
31 March 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
Tariff Stochasticity Examining how unpredictable tariff policies create chaos for energy companies, from confused utility regulators to Federal Reserve uncertainty reports hitting 55-year highs. The stochastic nature of tariffs clashes with…
energy interest rates Related
21 March 2025
Writer and former McKinsey/BCG strategy consultant; author of The Pathless Path and Good Work, about leaving the default career track. Publishes the Boundless newsletter and podcast.
Their words
A collection of short essays and aphorisms on crafting a life of autonomy, creativity, and intentional leisure—challenging hustle culture with elegance and philosophical depth.
Show the whole quote
pathlesspath.com
Their words
A series of autobiographical essays exploring wandering, uncertainty, memory, desire, and place—embracing the unknown as a gateway to self-transcendence.
Show the whole quote
pathlesspath.com
16 December 2024
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
28 November 2024
Machine-learning researcher; has written the Lil'Log survey posts on how a model technique works since 2017, and worked at OpenAI from 2018 to 2024, latterly leading its safety systems team.
1 October 2024
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
25 May 2024
Neuroscientist at UC Davis; studies memory and wrote Why We Remember.
Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
17 April 2024
Engineer and writer on machine-learning systems; author of Designing Machine Learning Systems and AI Engineering. "I work to bring AI into production. I write about AI system design."
28 February 2024
Engineer and writer on machine-learning systems; author of Designing Machine Learning Systems and AI Engineering. "I work to bring AI into production. I write about AI system design."
Their words
One pattern is that for simple prompts, weak models can do (nearly) as well as strong models. For more challenging prompts, however, users are much more likely to prefer stronger models.
Show the whole quote
huyenchip.com
27 February 2024
Research scientist at Meta in Berlin working on multilingual models and evaluation; led the multilingual team at Cohere and was a research scientist at Google DeepMind before that.
12 February 2024
Swedish software developer writing about tooling, working from home and running a software business at seastone.io.
The most challenging part of writing job ads? Coming up with synonyms for "experience with". Related
17 January 2023
Co-founded Neuralink and founded Science Corp, which is building a retinal implant; writes about neural interfaces and biology.
What is Heisenberg uncertainty, anyway? Like relativity, uncertainty is a deeply beautiful topic that is widely misunderstood. Many people are familiar with the idea that you cannot simultaneously know, for example, a particle’s position and momentum to perfe…
Related
12 October 2022
Researcher on distributed systems and local-first software at the University of Cambridge; wrote Designing Data-Intensive Applications.
1 July 2022
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
28 June 2022
Writer of the blog Putanumonit and the newsletter Second Person, on rationality, dating and probability; based in New York.
23 March 2020
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
16 September 2019
Mathematical biologist; Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath and author of The Maths of Life and Death and How to Expect the Unexpected.
Their words
The thing I'd say about Do Dice Play God? is that it is very rewarding, but you do have to invest in it.
Show the whole quote
fivebooks.com
19 July 2019
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
17 July 2019
Indian software developer and prolific blogger on PHP, Laravel and JavaScript; open-source enthusiast publishing near-daily at amitmerchant.com.
Their words
When I need to compress images, I use TinyPNG. It uses smart lossy compression techniques to reduce the file size of your PNG files.
Show the whole quote
amitmerchant.com
1 May 2019
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
Nothing matches. Show everything
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Got it
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
Got it