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David Spiegelhalter x.com
I am beside myself with joy that The Art of Uncertainty is out in paperback today! Fits in any (largish) pocket, easy to read on the train or while jammed into a steaming underground carriage. The perfect present for the nerd in your life.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
3 September
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open sourceAnthropicOpenAIChina
Their words
in this whole USA vs China thing OpenAI and Anthropic aren't relevant because they're positioned differently them building better models doesn't hurt china at all the competitor has to be - american - open source - enough compute to do inference at scale that can shift things
19 August
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20 July
17 April
20 October 2025
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Their words
An average email or line of code is fine. Average art isn’t. To make something alive with AI, we have to resist its pull towards average by working beside it, shaping what it gives, and listening for what’s missing.
15 August 2025
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Their words
In terms of things that are causing us to lose to China, tariffs are neither here nor there because, as we've discussed, we're not sensitive to cost on power. But the environmental regulations that are actively preventing us from deploying renewable energy in the United States, like this is the reason Texas is winning. Texas is out deploying California 10 to1.
9 May 2025
16 October 2024
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Their words
We are pretty sure that the Sphinx, at least, does date back to 12 and a half thousand years ago and with it, the megalithic temples, the so-called Valley Temple, which stands just to the east and just to the south of the Sphinx and the Sphinx temple, which stands directly in front of the Sphinx.
5 September 2024
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Their words
The U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own.
23 January 2024
From one piece 2023 letter 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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China built half of the world’s ships (by gross tonnage) in 2022, while the US had 0.2 percent of capacity: in practice, this meant that while China builds hundreds of new ships a year, the US builds three to five.
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Their words
As I’ve written in each of my previous letters, the party’s strangling of free expression has rendered China into a pitiful underperformer relative to Japan and South Korea in the creation of cultural products.
5 December 2023
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