no, I don't think AI will keep me from hitting any of these anniversaries as a working writer, unless it triggers the apocalypse, in which case we have other problems.
Historically, whenever companies get power over what people's computing facilities can do, they use it against us, building malicious functionalities, designed to benefit them, into the software they invite us to use.
Basically, what I'm saying is, don't use ismap unless you're absolutely sure that there will be no CSS shenanigans. Even then, it probably isn't worth the risk.
If this is only due to gains in capabilities, that is extremely bad news, and it means CoT monitoring is unlikely to survive for another year unless we find a way to actively improve it, and it might not last six months.
so so yeah, it could be possible now. I think if it's not possible now um it I think it's quite likely to be possible within six months unless there's a dramatic improvement in the security posture
without metadata prompting when you add lower quality data from 80% data to 100% data the performance actually decreases which is perhaps not too surprising because you're adding lowquality data to your data mixture whereas with the metadata prompting the performance actually increases when you add that lowquality data
It's like we need to hear the wins. We need to hear what's We need to hear about what's possible. We need to hear what's exciting. But you got to couple it with the costs.
That was always a bad idea because it's split brain. Half of you are writing the code and the other half are understanding it. I would argue that you can't really understand the code you write unless you're operating it.
“you are a devil’s advocate, disagree with everything” is probably the worst possible prompt for this agent. within a week everyone would ignore her. she’d become the slack equivalent of a smoke detector that goes off whenever somebody makes toast.
Because if you're those three things, if you got fire in your belly, you learn quickly, and you're self-aware, you can kind of get good at anything eventually.
However, in our non-ideal biophysical reality, present levels of urbanism are unlikely to be sustainable without cheap fossil fuels, and the human cost of that could be horrific unless we address it urgently.
If the user doesn't actively push back against the AI model, then they get the generic output, the lowest common acceptable denominator of aesthetics and taste.
and then the power and the cost and then you can double the performance but you cannot double down on the cost and and area. So those are the thing you have to give give way unless you find some new way of material new way of design.
I would agree to that type of package for every company I've ever worked with, and most CEOs wouldn't take it. Uh, it basically says you don't make money unless the stock goes way up. And if you stock goes way up, you make an obscene amount of money. And I would do that deal over and over and over and over again.
we're still going to need a display cuz sorry people, unless we're plugging it into our brain like a BCI brain computer or there's some laser thing going into our retina, we're going to need a display.
and it turns out people kind of over glorify entrepreneurship. I think a lot of people believe there is tremendous upside, right? the type of entrepreneurship we talk about with software companies, the the upside is crazy. But when you're doing like selling parts or service business, unless you plan to open lots of stores and you know grow a larger employee base, it's not the same growth trajectory as software companies.
In short, whenever we have high-quality evidence that rigorously compares two teaching methods, the research invariably favors strong, direct instruction plus practice
unless the code is completely out of your control, the need for mocking often indicates a design problem-consider refactoring to make the code easier to test directly.
The more ants you put in the puzzle, the faster the solution. But the more humans you add, the worse. Unless the humans are very carefully aligned, this is the key lesson for organizational design.
Efficiency is what TV remote controls are good at, but whenever people try to maximize their productivity in the speediest way, things start to go south.
Whenever humans experience situations where we are closer to our animal selves than usual (needing to use the bathroom, having periods, giving birth, raising a baby, being sick), we usually behave as animals do: instinctively, urgently, and impolitely.
An agent has no such learning ability. At least not out of the box. It will continue making the same errors over and over again. Depending on the training data it might also come up with glorious new interpolations of different errors.
For that to be true, agents need to be able to see and understand the system. And agents need to be able to improve the things that need fixed. For that to be true, humans need to be able to see and understand the system and then take action to fix it. Uh and for that to be true, we got to see the system.
Uh but whenever we do a systematic study, um any given problem, an AI tool has a success rate of maybe 1 or 2%. Uh it's just that it's just that they can apply at scale and and you just pick the winners, it looks great.
there should be no way to get a big company like a public SAS company Unless NR is greater than 100, like otherwise cancellation should just win. And that is in fact the case.
But with today's AI coding agents, building software is remarkably easy. So instead of handing over static assets and static guidelines, designers can deliver custom software. Tools that let clients create their own on-brand assets whenever they need them.
I use an Audio-Technica AT2005 dynamic microphone. In my opinion it’s the best screencast / podcast microphone you’re going to find unless you spend $800+.
And only do it if it's great. If you only do it, it's it's a long-term strategy. I mean, it's not that I think all my books are great. I don't write them, though, unless I think they're going to be great.
See's Bridge Mix. My parents had this at their house when we visited in January and we've been buying them throughout the year whenever we come across a See's. The best box to have around the house.
And the reason this is important is what we're trying to do in a way is resolve this age-old tension between the cost and quality of customer experience where I think every great business wants to deliver an amazing experience to their customers. But unless you're like Hermes or the Four Seasons, it's too expensive to do.
Well, no, because Hitler was always going to invade the Soviet Union unless the Soviet Union invaded Germany first. So that was always going to happen.
I think the big thing to realize for indie developers right now is there's massive, massive competition in every major genre, and it's very unlikely that unless you just happen to be the world's best at a particular thing that you're going to release a game in an existing highly competitive genre and win.
And number one thing that whenever you have an initiative or whenever you have a metric that you need to go and move, do not start from scratch ever. Do not start from scratch.
And there’s still a lot of impetus in the physics community to think that non-equilibrium physics will explain life. But I think that’s not the right approach. I don’t think ultimately the solution to what life is there, and I don’t really think entropy has much to do with it unless it’s entirely reformulated.
I don’t think we’ve replicated human intelligence, unless I know that the simulator is making exactly the same kinds of mistakes that people do, because people make characteristic mistakes. They have characteristic biases, they have characteristic heuristics that we use, and those have yet to see evidence that ChatGPT will do that.
In this case, and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has, unless you put other rules in place, quite a lot of power. They don’t really answer to anyone but themselves. And there’s ways in which that’s good, but what we’d really like is for the board of OpenAI to answer to the world as a whole, as much as that’s a practical thing.
Obviousness comes from conforming to people’s existing mental models. Don’t waste time reinventing common UI patterns or paradigms unless they are at least 2x better, or you have some critical brand reason to do so.
Yet solar development is hopelessly snarled by dozens of different development regulations which begin with the assumption that it will permanently and severely harm the environment unless proven otherwise, at exhaustive length.
Despite evaluations, we cannot consider coming powerful frontier AI systems "safe unless proven unsafe". With current testing methodologies, issues can easily be missed. Additionally, it is unclear if governments can quickly build the immense expertise needed for reliable technical evaluations of AI capabilities and societal-scale risks. Given this, developers of frontier AI should carry the burden of proof to demonstrate that their plans keep risks within acceptable limits.
Making peer review harsher would also exacerbate the worst problem of all: just knowing that your ideas won’t count for anything unless peer reviewers like them makes you worse at thinking.
In some ways, maybe it does do good. I don’t want to make an argument for nuclear arms, but predation as a mechanism forces organisms to adapt, to change, to be better, to escape, or to kill. If you need to eat, then you’ve got to eat. A cheetah is not going to run at that speed unless it has to because the zebra is capable of escaping. So it leads to much greater feats of evolution would ever have been possible without it, and in the end, to a much more beautiful world.
I would recommend that anyone who thinks they're suffering from trauma (eg PTSD) try a trauma-focused therapy like EMDR before trying to address nightmares directly, unless the nightmares are overwhelmingly worse than all their other trauma symptoms.
All the sockets between my computers are over Tailscale, so whenever I grab the laptop and leave the house, the connections to my VMs and NAS remain stable.
If intelligence lies in the process of acquiring skills, then there is no task X such that skill at X demonstrates intelligence, unless X is actually a meta-task involving skill-acquisition across a broad range of tasks.
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