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From one piece Better Debt 2 beliefs · grumpy-economist.com
Their words
Simplifying a bit, the Treasury should introduce a fixed-coupon perpetuity and a fixed-value floating-rate perpetuity. These should gradually make up the bulk of government debt.
Their words
The tradeoff between cost of borrowing and how much interest rate risk taxpayers shoulder should be squarely on the shoulders of the politically-accountable Treasury not the independent Fed.
korrents.com
Time spent on bureaucratic paperwork is a real economic cost even though it doesn't appear in government budgets.Their words
it is simply ridiculous that a ruinously expensive policy can be budget-neutral if the expense consists of wasted time rather than wasted money. But that's still a cost!
korrents.com
A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good.Their words
One unpopular position I’ve stuck to over the years is that a strong bureaucracy is good. I don’t mean “bureaucracy” as in red tape and regulation; I mean a competent, empowered civil service that can perform crucial government functions efficiently and well using in-house expertise. This is also called state capacity.
Their words
Finland made great progress towards eliminating homelessness by giving people houses which they could feel was home. Alas, right-wing government has cut some of the spending and is driving homelessness back up.
Their words
Social media is destroying out society. Quitting doesn't help because everyone else is still on it. It's a bad equilibrium. It needs to be solved with government regulations.
Their words
that doesn't have to persist long for AI to join the ranks of systems that are important enough that there's someone senior in the government who's responsible for regulating them.
Their words
If there really is a high chance of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within years/decades, then the only rational stance towards safety monitoring and research pacing should be stringent, top-down government involvement and universally ratified international treaties.
Their words
a hard-earned lesson of the past few months is that mobilizing collective action against the federal government is hard.
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I do not think those running the government testing understand what is going on, and believe they are reacting basically on vibes and what various trusted people tell them.
Their words
the Trump administration's foreign policymakers are so lazy that they keep self-sabotaging.
korrents.com
The current US government uses false antisemitism accusations to damage and control institutions it views as enemies.Their words
The Fascist regime now ruling the US both enables this and has effectively used bogus accusations of "antisemitism" to damage and exert control over prominent institutions they consider to be enemies.
From one piece Where’s the Beef (Coming From)? 2 beliefs · paulkrugman.substack.com
Their words
It’s an administration that’s trying to turn us back to the 19th century or before. It’s really just trying to undo even the most essential functions of government.
Their words
And this is not something that you can leave up to the private sector. It’s not something where you can do your own research. It’s a very complicated world out there. And the informational burden of trying to figure out whether the people responsible for your package of hamburger are actually following safe procedures, that’s beyond everybody.
Their words
This is the case even though Canada gets broad access into the massive American Government Procurement Market, including those of our States. That is not reciprocity, it is a Canadian Trade Scam.
Their words
Voting for the AfD in the current landscape, whatever your economic issues, in short, is not a vote to have your economic issues addressed by social democracy, or welfare or government intervention.
korrents.com
A conspiracy theory can be used as a pretext to dismantle government programs and target researchers and citizens.Their words
Since 2025, MAGA ideologues have been using this alleged plot as an excuse to dismantle government programs, stifle research, intimidate American citizens, and even distort American foreign policy.
The Myth of the “Censorship Industrial Complex”anneapplebaum.substack.com
From one piece The Crisis We've Been Waiting For 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
korrents.com
Rising AI capability is undermining the assumptions that justify slow, manual government processes.Their words
AI creates a crisis by making the assumptions on which government operates untenable.
Their words
Things government has long explained as difficult, expensive, or slow are going to look increasingly like choices.
korrents.com
The US federal government will eventually impose heavy-handed control over the internet.Their words
Sometimes I get super nervous that someday the US government is really going to fuck with the web. Like they are going to decide they just don't have enough control over it and are going to get really heavy-handed somehow.
From one piece My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Now 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
I think the fact that the government took on debt during two crises to help households was a good trade-off.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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The real danger of high government debt is the policy errors it provokes, not a debt crisis.Their words
But I am worried about high government debt levels causing policy errors.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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What we do know is that the actual Elon Musk that we have to live with on this here timeline was flagrantly incompetent in government, contrary to Noah's previous predictions.
korrents.com
Most high-skilled Europeans are happy to pay even high taxes, provided the government does a great job in return.Their words
I think most high skilled Europeans are happy to pay (even high) taxes That is, if the government does a great job like Singapore or Dubai or Korea or Japan and most things work well You pay the government for a service and you get safe cities, great public services and great healthcare back
From one piece How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now 3 beliefs · raydalio.substack.com
Their words
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.
Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
From one piece Michael Kratsios: Inside the White House's AI Strategy 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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I think it can be a slog, it can be bureaucratic, it can be painful, but when the when the outcome actually happens and you deliver the result, there is no place where you can have a bigger impact on on this country.
Their words
I think there is there is um no place where you can work on bigger problems than the US government. Even at the the biggest tech companies in the world, you're never going to be dealing with problems of this of this scale.
Their words
no matter what kind of industry you're looking at, there was this government angle where the government's policy actions could be ones that could actually unlock technologies.
Their words
Over time that has sort of inverted completely. The private sector plus philanthropy now do about 70% of R&D and the and the government only does about 30.
Their words
it's just been sitting there in legislation for like 40 years and no one's really taken advantage of it except for one government program here or there where they want to, you know, do a NASA space reactor or something like that. But it has from a legal perspective been waiting for an administration to say, "Hey, this might be a way to accelerate nuclear R&D."
Their words
We can go fast. Let's do same thing faster, you know, just boom. And I've come to feel like that is a very immature description of what better is.
korrents.com
Philanthropy can never operate at the scale of government, no matter how well-funded it becomes.Their words
Even with the influx of funding that may come with the AI companies' IPOs, philanthropy can never act at the scale of government.
Their words
By the way, this is the pattern in a lot of regulation. It doesn't come from like some well-meaning person trying to keep the public safe. It comes from some entrenched, frankly, lazy interest that doesn't want to have to compete and runs to DC or runs to the local regulator and tries to use the power of government to shut their competition down. I think this is deeply unethical, but it happens all the time.
korrents.com
AI is raising public expectations of government service at the same time it changes what government must deliver.Their words
Every state, and the federal government right along with them, is about to be asked to do a lot more than keep the lights on.
From one piece The Network State 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
korrents.com
A government is legitimate internally if the governed have consented to it, whatever form it takes.Their words
Given the consent of the governed, any form of government is internally legitimate.
Their words
This gives us a new perspective on why micronations like Sealand don’t work: they start backwards, from the territory and the government, rather than working forwards from a people and their culture.
korrents.com
The US federal government has lost the capacity to build basic infrastructure, let alone advanced military hardware.Their words
This US government can’t build a bathroom in San Francisco, let alone a costeffective fighter jet, destroyer, combat ship, or aircraft carrier.
Their words
To shout “temporary” and pull the plug essentially overnight after immigrants have relied on the government’s representations that they should put their efforts and future into establishing a life in the United States wreaks unfair havoc on the lives of immigrants as well as the welfare of their communities.
SCOTUS Whitewashes Otherwise Racist Decisionblog.simplejustice.us
korrents.com
Government controls both the resources and the legitimacy needed for large-scale change.Their words
Government is where the literal money is (money that could often go much further if we fixed what's wrong with government), but it's also where the impact is. And it's where the legitimacy is.
From one piece Re-engineering the Semiconductor Supply Chain with Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
And then in terms of the capital intensive like AI in a factory and also the foundry and then you really need to tap either government funding or some sovereign fund
Their words
Just I explained to President Trump, TSMC when they started they have the Taiwan government as a shareholder. If you look at Japan, you look at Singapore, this is the infrastructure US government get to provide the support.
From one piece Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time – Ada Palmer 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
When you break that, when you overthrow the ruler, when you dissolve the republic, when you put in a new thing, it doesn't have that same staying power. And so, it's very common when there's one regime change for there to then be five regime changes rapid-fire over and over.
Their words
And soon we have a precedent that every new pope feels he has the authority to knock down every pawn upon the chessboard if he feels like it. Once that is the norm, even a fairly nice pope still inherits the idea that the pope is going to overthrow and replace governments. And this creates a unique instability within Italy that no other part of Europe is subject to
Their words
It shouldn't It shouldn't be shelved next to How to Win Friends and Influence People because it's a manual not of how to gain power, but of how to keep power.
Their words
The Inquisition, the Vatican, it controls everything, which is completely untrue and is propagandistic. The Inquisition is overseen by a whole bunch of isolated guys who are in isolated towns and it takes weeks or months to even communicate with the Vatican and they're making their own decisions.
Their words
And Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. China much more so under Deng Xiaoping, but recently Xi Jinping has been privileging the crony sector over the private sector and neither one has stable government institutions.
korrents.com
Federal Reserve Board members have historically often resigned before completing their full terms.Their words
Federal Reserve Board members have often resigned their positions well before their 14-year terms expired, since that's quite a long time to spend in one position in government.
From one piece Stop Microlooting the Tax Code 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
korrents.com
Stronger enforcement against tax and benefit cheating would raise social trust in government.Their words
It would behoove politicians to take cheating more seriously, because better enforcement would improve social trust
Their words
The necessary tax rates depend on how big a government you want, but all these systems rely on people paying taxes.
Their words
Again, you cannot pay for the externalities by pulling subsidies (there is nothing there to pull
Do subsidies make meat much cheaper?hannahritchie.substack.com
Their words
Back when the Fourth Amendment was enacted, the most fundamental remedy for an unlawful government entry into your home was a civil suit for trespass against the officers.
Lovedrcmnd.app
BreakneckTheir words
Wang argues that the US & China each have a dominant form of government problem-solving
Recommendsrcmnd.app
Our Dollar, Your ProblemTheir words
This book manages to pull all of that together in a way that's genuinely readable and engaging, helped along by anecdotes from his own policymaking experience that both clarify the arguments and make them feel concrete and accessible to a much broader audience.
Their words
There is a close mapping between government ideal types and corporate governance structures given their shared origins in transaction costs.
Their words
And there are a whole bunch of people who are employed not always by the government just as much by the private sector who are much more interested in adherence to uh approved procedure than they are in quality of outcome.
korrents.com
A government's political legitimacy depends on providing a fair, merit-based channel for social advancement.Their words
One possible reading of the last century or so of political history in China, therefore, is that governments who provide a meritocratic channel for social advancement have legitimacy and popular support, and governments who do not provide one, do not.
From one piece Pavel Durov: Telegram, Freedom, Censorship, Money, Power & Human Nature | Lex Fridman Podcast #482 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
That's how you end up in an endless loop of ever-increasing taxes, ever-increasing regulation, which ultimately suffocates free market, free enterprise, and free speech. So, you do want to have very, very strict limitations on the extent the government can increase its powers at the expense of citizens.
Their words
And I would rather lose everything I have than yield to this pressure because, if you submit to this pressure and agree with something that is fundamentally wrong and violates rights of other people as well, you become broken inside, you become a shell of your former self on a deep biological and spiritual level.
Their words
Another big misunderstanding, and a fundamental one, is that people somehow think that the state suppresses the private sector. It’s not at all as simple as that. For the most part, if we look at the local government’s incentive system, they want to help the best, private companies, which are the most promising, because it makes them look good.
Their words
So, you while we kind of saved the system a lot, we bailed a lot of people out, they made us pay 5 billion dollars on the more the bad mortgages that Bear Stearns had done. And that's what made me make the statement I wouldn't do it again.
korrents.com
America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did.Their words
In sum, spurred on by the federal government (in many ways), the US borrowed a huge amount from foreigners at very low rates, and went on a consumption binge. Sooner or later we have to pay it back, or we go though the wrenching adjustment of a debt crisis.
Their words
But the underlying ideology is familiar from Silicon Valley, Mark Zuckerberg's dictum to "move fast and break things" and replace the messily human with frictionless technology, built by elite engineers who are supposed to know better than anyone else.
Their words
Since signaling, not building human capital, is the main function of education, the main effect of government subsidies is credential inflation.
Their words
FLOP is the vector that the government has cared about historically, but the other two vectors are arguably just as important. And especially when we come to this new paradigm, which the world is only just learning about over the last six months: reasoning.
Recommendsrcmnd.app
The House of GovernmentTheir words
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
Recommendsrcmnd.app
Imagined CommunitiesTheir words
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
Recommendsrcmnd.app
How to Hide an EmpireTheir words
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Origins of Political OrderTheir words
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
Recommendsrcmnd.app
Invisible CountriesTheir words
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
From one piece The Inaugural Address 2 beliefs · whitehouse.gov
korrents.com
The inflation of the early 2020s was caused by government overspending and rising energy prices.Their words
The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency.
korrents.com
Federal efforts to restrict free expression in recent years were illegal and unconstitutional.Their words
After years and years of illegal and unconstitutional federal efforts to restrict free expression, I also will sign an executive order to immediately stop all government censorship and bring back free speech to America.
inflationimmigrationgovernment
Their words
And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that's all been made possible by inflation.
From one piece PM speech on AI Opportunities Action Plan, 13 January 2025 2 beliefs · gov.uk
korrents.com
On AI the state's job does not stop at safety; leaving everything else to the market is a mistake.Their words
We shouldn’t just focus on safety and leave the rest to the market… Government has a responsibility to make it work for working people…
Their words
This is the global race of our lives. Now, some countries are going to make AI breakthroughs and export them… Others will end up buying those breakthroughs and importing them. The question is – which of those will Britain be? AI maker or AI taker?
korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
korrents.com
Our technosphere is immature: it is currently destroying the conditions it needs in order to sustain itself.Their words
What we were arguing in that paper is that it's an immature technosphere. Because right now, with climate change and all the other things we're doing, the technosphere right now is destroying the conditions under which it needs to maintain itself.
korrents.com
Government payments and benefits aimed at raising birth rates do not reverse the decline.Their words
Across the OECD, governments are upping their spending. But a wealth of research suggests these fail to mitigate the downward trend.
Their words
We cannot say that we are free if we allow our government to dictate to us what experiences we may or may not have in our inner consciousness, while doing no harm to others.
korrents.com
An independently owned platform is a necessary counterweight to the government and the mainstream media.Their words
So having an independently owned powerful platform is very important for truth, for free speech, for hearing the other side of the story, for counterbalancing the power of the government.
Their words
The trouble with Xi Jinping is that he is 60 percent correct on all the problems he sees, while his government’s brute force solutions reliably worsen things.
From one piece GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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The truth is that moral hazard concerns very often are worse with government programs than with markets.
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In my own view, both markets and states are spontaneous orders, and government is not uniquely the product of “taxis” or “rationalist constructivism.”
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I am myself skeptical that there is a clearly defined notion of who “the right people” might be, and thus I am on public choice grounds far more skeptical of government than Keynes was.
Their words
They frame the situation as a choice between continued human drivers killing people (without statistical context) vs. immature robotaxis who don't drink and drive (but make other mistakes).
AV Safety and the False Dilemma Fallacysafeautonomy.blogspot.com
korrents.com
A threat loses First Amendment protection only if the speaker was at least reckless about it being taken as a threat.Their words
Now, finally, the Court has resolved the question: the First Amendment requires that, at a minimum, the government prove that a speaker was reckless about whether their statement would be interpreted as threatening.
Their words
It’s not exactly news that the American government’s support for biofuels increases food prices, intensifies global hunger and wastes taxpayer dollars.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
Their words
When it comes to React Server Components, it's still the first inning.
Recommendsrcmnd.app
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical TechnologyTheir words
Chris Miller tells us the history of how microchips were developed, emphasizing the critical role of the government, and especially defense procurement.
Their words
the real goal was to make their users more legible, primarily for advertising purposes, but also to law enforcement and other authorities.
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
korrents.com
Quantitative rules are not a reliable tool for ensuring government debt sustainability.Their words
I am skeptical of the use of quantitative rules to ensure debt sustainability.
Their words
The analysis in this chapter has shown that there is no such thing as a universal threshold over which debt becomes unsustainable, and that the relevant debt level depends on many factors, in particular the real interest rate on debt.
Their words
assessing debt sustainability is as much art as it is science.
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The proposition is that the cancellation of the bonds held by the central bank would decrease the amount of interest payments and thus the debt service of governments. And indeed, it would. But it would have another effect—namely, to decrease the revenues of the central bank and thus the profits that the central bank turns in to the government. This second effect would be exactly of the same size as the first, and the net effect on the government budget constraint would be equal to zero.
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A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase.
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It has displayed a stronger record of reform than any other developing country, as the leadership keeps pulling off politically-difficult tasks: shrinking the state sector, re-orienting the economy towards export-led growth after WTO accession, and so on.
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Rather: NSO’s genius is that they’ve done something that attackers were never incentivized to do in this past: democratize access to exploit technology.
A case against security nihilismblog.cryptographyengineering.com
Their words
Behavioral science can play an even more important role in the policymaking process in coming years if practitioners instead begin with some of the large-scale questions that economic policymakers face and then develop insights that, often as a complement to more traditional policy tools, can help solve them.
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