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18 September
17 September
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korrents.com
Surviving without damage so far is not evidence a property is prepared for future climate riskTheir words
Surviving up to now is not evidence that a property is prepared for what comes next, she said-especially when the conditions around it are changing.
16 September
15 September
13 September
12 September
11 September
10 September
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Pharmacy FirstTheir words
That's why we're expanding Pharmacy First. The idea is simple: Qualified pharmacists can assess patients, dispense medicines and prescribe treatment for a range of common conditions, helping people get care quickly and close to home.
9 September
8 September
7 September
5 September
4 September
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Their words
There is also a very important step called randomization. Is that you have to take the same environment and then randomize the conditions. So, the cable doesn't literally only, you know, uh bend this way. It can bend a different way or the box can have different sizes, colors, different lids, and all that.
1 September
26 August
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Their words
The Nordic-Baltic warmongering under the current conditions is therefore (i) irresponsible, (ii) hypocritical, (iii) immoral, and (iv) flirts with a disaster of immense proportions.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
24 August
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Their words
there are some people who have pure apathy, no depression like David. And there are other people who can be depressed, they can be sad, they can be hopeless about the future, but they don't necessarily lose motivation. They can have pure depression.
22 August
21 August
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Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
17 August
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Their words
And once you look at the brain systems, they're distinct brain systems in this instance for fear to something out there in the world versus panic of something happening inside you like having a heart attack or not getting enough air.
16 August
14 August
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korrents.com
Shared cloud infrastructure makes it hard to get stable, reproducible performance-testing conditions.Their words
This is basically impossibly to accomplish using most cloud infrastructure since those are almost always shared with countless other users.
12 August
3 August
1 August
28 July
From one piece Sam Altman: "Never a Better Time to Do a Startup" 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think startups tend to win when um the sort of like technology landscape is moving very quickly. uh when costs are coming down when cycle times are short and all of those things are happening right now.
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Their words
I think it's a real reminder of the stakes of what's happening and that loss of control accidents are not entirely theoretical things.
27 July
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Their words
it's it's literally we're looking at neurons in the model's brain that light up when prompt injection happens. So the model won't even tell you but we can actually see those neurons and we can figure out and diagnose that it's happening. And then you combine that with the auto mode classifier and with these three layers we just cannot demonstrate prompt injection anymore.
20 July
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Their words
But just because we have a fixed relatively fixed number of cells doesn't mean that we can't change the connections between those cells. And that's happening all the time. And that is, you know, the main principle of neuroplasticity.
17 July
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korrents.com
Forest management alone cannot offset the hotter, drier conditions that climate change has brought to wildfires.Their words
It is not enough to manage away the hotter, drier conditions that have turned fires into continent-spanning hellscape smoke events.
12 July
1 July
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Their words
What is happening is that GenAI's climate harm comes from the system design, such as Google's AI overview triggering constantly whether users want it or not, in addition to significantly worse digital bloat tools dominating overconsumption.
30 June
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Their words
As is the case with most businesses, suppliers in the housing industry generally set prices based on market conditions and what buyers or tenants are willing to pay, rather than on production costs.
Some Things YIMBYs Tend To Get Wrong (and Right)strongtowns.org
15 June
11 June
10 June
9 June
From one piece Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the maritime world is about negative objectives. It's preventing things from bad things from happening. And um you can never prove that you prevented anything.
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Their words
It was a miracle of your lifetimes. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. The problem for the likes of Putin is that this wealth producing trade was not happening at his house, but the houses of those vested in the trading order, not in extortion.
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Their words
a more common trait that's related in the entrepreneurial world is obsessive learning like constant learning because the disruptions that allow for the technology waves that allow for companies to be disruptive and take market share from an incumbent are all tied to something dynamic that's happening on the edge.
6 June
4 June
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Their words
here prices are adjusting in this interesting way that too many macro models don't allow for, right? So, that what what a what's happening is what would be called investment specific technical change where yeah, the price of capital is like falling relative to the price of consumption instead of like the standard doing the standard macro thing of saying there's just output.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So with one, you get the effect that the person produced art print is valued much much higher than the than the AI version. And then what we do is to say there's in a set of other conditions, there's 500 of these being produced. So for the human made one, the price goes down a lot because it's no longer seen as like you're not like making a connection with this one artist versus with AI, there's no difference. AI is already viewed as like a commodity.
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Their words
They just recently released a report, and I think like you really have to squint to see anything happening. Like basically, if you want to take kind of like uh an an approach across the entire economy and looking at even looking at like software engineering, like the most exposed sort of sectors, there's just like not really anything going on. There might be a little bit of a signal about like junior developers getting jobs less than before, and that but that's like a less than before rather than a level shift.
27 May
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Their words
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
1 May
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Their words
I have a pet theory that removing the option for antibiotics forces farms to treat animals better, because bad conditions engender disease and without the quick fix of antibiotics that can get very expensive.
16 April
7 April
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Their words
Um I think another similarity is I mean, the core notions uh behind Agile and extreme programming are solid and good, but a huge snake oil industry appeared around it, the Agile industrial complex as I like to refer to it. Um and that will happen. That is happening with AI right now, and it's often hard to see the difference between where is the snake oil and where is the real stuff.
23 March
11 March
From one piece From IDEs to AI Agents with Steve Yegge 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Big companies will lose about half of their engineers, because that is where everybody is setting the dial.Their words
And so, what's happening is everybody on average is setting that dial to about 50% and we're going to lose about half the engineers from big companies, which is scary.
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korrents.com
The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes.Their words
So, I think what's happening is we're all looking at the big companies going, "When are you going to give us something?" And the answer is we're looking at the big dead companies. We just don't know they're dead yet.
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korrents.com
AI has a vampiric effect on the people using it: it excites them into working past their own ragged edge.Their words
There's a vampiric effect happening with AI where it gets you excited and you work really really hard and you're capturing a ton of value. For me, I'm doing it all for myself and it's still kind of like pushing me to my ragged edge.
8 March
12 February
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Their words
and not in 2030 when, when AI is actually at the level where it could be scary. So, this happening now and people starting discussion, maybe there's even something good that comes out of it.
9 February
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korrents.com
People do not switch from meat to cheap plant protein as they get richer; they switch the other way.Their words
Across much of the world, the opposite is happening: people are switching from these plant-based staples to meat and dairy as their incomes rise.
Do subsidies make meat much cheaper?hannahritchie.substack.com
27 January
1 January
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Their words
And so what ends up happening is the emails that the AI write are pretty good. Okay? If you're getting terrible emails, it's a poorly trained product from a bad vendor.
9 December 2025
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korrents.com
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.Their words
Bubbles are best identified in retrospect.
28 November 2025
17 October 2025
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Their words
and we'll gradually layer all this stuff everywhere and there will be fewer and fewer people who understand it and that there will be a sort of this like scenario of a gradual loss of control and understanding of what's happening that to me seems most likely outcome of how all this stuff will go down.
9 September 2025
2 September 2025
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Their words
The interesting Tesla point is people always looked at it and said, "It's the iPhone of cars." No, it's not. What's happening is that cars are becoming Android with no iPhone. And then Tesla is just selling and is is in that metaphor Tesla is just another android phone maker
2 August 2025
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Their words
The design of the initial molecules to test is pretty magic-feeling, and is happening already – but the arrival of new drugs prescribed by your doctor will not be magical and sudden.
AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
19 June 2025
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Their words
As AI gets more capable, the risks associated with mistaken claims, fraudulent claims, or too-vague-to-be-verified claims will increase, and a cloud of suspicion between competitors could drive corner-cutting (indeed, this is happening already and could get worse).
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The System: A Novel of the Deep StateTheir words
I love Barry’s writing and read every book he writes. He has total mastery of the contemporary thriller with extraordinarily vibrant characters and a zillion endnotes that tie to things that are actually happening in the real world.
4 June 2025
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Their words, before
The problem is that the conversational interface is potent and that the AI is trained on a lot of human text input which unfortunately is probably enough to do real damage if that conversational interface is hooked up with something that has real world consequences.
Their words now
While all this is happening, I’ve found myself reflecting a lot on what AI means to the world and I am becoming increasingly optimistic about our future. It’s obvious now that we’re undergoing a tremendous shift.
6 April 2025
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korrents.com
Every country that has succeeded at manufacturing set the conditions first and then moved slowly.Their words
Every country that has gone on a brilliant run of manufacturing first established the right conditions and then proceeded slowly.
22 March 2025
From one piece ThePrimeagen: Programming, AI, ADHD, Productivity, Addiction, and God | Lex Fridman Podcast #461 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think there's this whole idea, I call it a denial of attention. I think there's an entire attack vector that's going to be happening. We're using LLMs to generate fake bug reports, fake all these things to just actually effectively to demotivate and hurt open source maintainers.
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Their words
At some point you have to take off the training wheels, because I think what you're really spotting is the difference between reading and writing code. I can read a lot of languages very well. I can see what's happening. I can understand it, but I would not be very good at writing it.
22 December 2024
From one piece Adam Frank: Alien Civilizations and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life | Lex Fridman Podcast #455 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The biosphere is not going away. There's nothing we could do. The idea that we have to save the Earth is a little ridiculous. The Earth is not a furry little bunny that we need to protect. But it's the conditions for us.
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korrents.com
Our technosphere is immature: it is currently destroying the conditions it needs in order to sustain itself.Their words
What we were arguing in that paper is that it's an immature technosphere. Because right now, with climate change and all the other things we're doing, the technosphere right now is destroying the conditions under which it needs to maintain itself.
1 November 2024
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korrents.com
The fall in childbearing in rich countries is concentrated among the less educated, not among female graduates.Their words
Slurs of ‘childless cat ladies’ usually target female graduates, but in the US, Sweden and Finland the real decline is happening among people with less education.
30 September 2024
From one piece Ed Barnhart: Maya, Aztec, Inca, and Lost Civilizations of South America | Lex Fridman Podcast #446 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The Maya did not collapse; they moved a few kilometres out into perishable houses, and archaeology could not see it.Their words
I think it’s a failing of archeology to properly see what was happening. I think that most of those cities populations moved no more than 20 to 40 kilometers out and started their own farm, and they lived in perishable houses.
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Their words
We see the traditional 12,500 years ago that there was a migration, but now we’re seeing one that’s almost certainly happening closer to 30,000 years ago.
24 September 2024
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korrents.com
Bitcoin tracks the direction of global liquidity more consistently than any other major asset class.Their words
Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period, which is higher than any other major asset class, making it a strong barometer of liquidity conditions.
13 June 2024
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Their words
Physics hardly even acknowledges that the universe is random at its base. We like to think we live in a deterministic universe and everything’s deterministic. But I think that’s probably an artifact of the way that we’ve written down laws of physics since Newton invented modern physics and his conception of motion and gravity, which he formulated laws that had initial conditions and fixed dynamical laws.
25 May 2024
From one piece Charan Ranganath: Human Memory, Imagination, Deja Vu, and False Memories | Lex Fridman Podcast #430 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
It just kind of vanished, because what happens, I’m creating all these artificial event boundaries. I’m losing all this executive function every time I switch, I’m getting a few seconds slower and I’m catching up mentally to what’s happening.
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Their words
Almost everyone in the class said that the days were moving by slower. Then I would say, “Okay, so do you feel like the weeks are passing by slower, faster, or the same?” The majority of them said that the weeks were passing by faster. According to the laws of physics, I don’t think that makes any sense, but according to memory, it did because what happened was people were doing the same thing over and over in the same context.
15 April 2024
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korrents.com
Retrieval-augmented generation is the most practical approach for reducing LLM hallucinations.Their words
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG; Lewis et al., 2020), which conditions on the LLM's generation on retrieved documents is the most practical paradigm IMO.
4 March 2024
From one piece Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So, imagine under those conditions and context that someone is persecuting ethnic Russians or Russian speakers. One, to believe in something like that, one important precondition is never to step your foot in Ukraine.
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Their words
So in historical terms and intellectual terms, what is happening today in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the vision on one level or another level that was formulated by the noble laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, half Russian, half Ukrainian.
10 January 2024
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korrents.com
A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out.Their words
Burnout is the ultimate agency-killer. This is so true that I’ve learned to identify a reduction in agency as one of the first signs of burnout, one that shows up even before I consciously realize what’s happening.
23 December 2023
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Their words
Because patents have fixed term lengths, with small extensions to compensate for the year or so when the drug is under regulatory review, drug developers are incentivized to go after conditions where clinical trials can be completed quickly, all else being equal.
3 December 2023
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Their words
Large language models are more or less generalizations of stuff that we have. There’s still breakthroughs in AI waiting to happen, and maybe they are happening and maybe they’ll be good, maybe not, but that’s not quite the same.
1 October 2023
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