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M.G. Siegler Bluesky
There are nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead...
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18 September
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korrents.com
Discourse that doesn't tolerate dissenting viewpoints inevitably produces bad outcomes.Their words
viewpoints that don't harbor dissent inevitably lead to bad outcomes.
17 September
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korrents.com
Safely routing AI tasks to cheaper models requires accumulated observation of many prior task outcomes.Their words
Routing to a cheap model is only safe if you know which tasks it clears, & that knowledge comes from watching ten thousand versions of the same work.
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korrents.com
Failed U.S. attempts to secure its preferred outcomes in the Persian Gulf will keep energy prices elevated.Their words
So it does not seem as though U.S. preferences in the Persian Gulf will be achieved - which means prices in general and energy prices in particular are likely to stay high.
16 September
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Their words
The American gentry's fortunes, in other words, are in substantial part, a policy artifact.
America’s Gentry Élite: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOILbraddelong.substack.com
15 September
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korrents.com
Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.Their words
There is nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead. Also, many of them - probably half! - have outcomes which end up being good, if not great, for society.
14 September
11 September
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korrents.com
The difference between mediocre and excellent work and outcomes is predominantly one of agency.Their words
The difference between mediocre and excellent work and outcomes is predominantly one of agency.
4 September
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Their words
In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.
3 September
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korrents.com
A crisis is defined not by how severe a problem is but by whether it hits people powerful enough to force change.Their words
Crises aren't defined by how bad a problem is. They're defined by when the bad outcomes hit people with the ability to make a stink.
2 September
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korrents.com
Investing in strong fundamentals and invisible supports makes good outcomes follow naturallyTheir words
Invest in building strong fundamentals, invisible supports, and outcomes flow like water.
31 August
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Their words
The level of academics that those students know is very low because the parents have basically abandoned that and said, "I care all about the life skills." For parents who really care about academics, those kids crush it.
28 August
20 August
11 August
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Their words
I think this constitution is in some sense very compatible with Claude doing huge amounts of power seeking because it thinks that will result in better outcomes.
28 July
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Their words
if you're starting the same startup as everybody else, it's like you get a lot of hype and you can raise a lot of money, but it's it's sort of like those are much less frequently the big option, the big outcomes.
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korrents.com
Refusing to commit is the right strategy inside a portfolio and the wrong one everywhere else in life.Their words
In investing, non-commitment leads to better than average outcomes for the typical investor.
24 July
23 July
21 July
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Their words
A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed into institutions, and, perhaps most important of all, translated into outcomes people care about.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
19 July
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Their words
Or the perfect way to go through feedback and leveling and compensation. But every time we saw that and we added more process, we spent more time without getting better outcomes.
17 July
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Their words
politicians acting based on what they think polls well, rather than based on what will actually produce results that make voters happy
2 June
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Their words
I truly believe that following this kind of approach to AI in the classroom would, in the aggregate, produce better learning outcomes than the research and writing workflows available to students pre-AI.
9 April
7 April
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korrents.com
Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking.Their words
There's strong epidemiological evidence associating ultra-processed foods with a range of negative health outcomes, at least on par with the evidence we had for smoking.
0058: borrow-checking surprises, books, linksscattered-thoughts.net
28 February
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Their words
But remember that such data can only come from trials in people (mice are nice, but most animal results simply do not translate.)
22 February
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Their words
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
18 February
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The world may be complex, but complex systems are typically controlled by a small number of highly stable invariants.
12 February
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korrents.com
Feast-or-famine corner outcomes, not modest proportional belt-tightening, are the generic result of price controls.Their words
This paper shows that feast or famine, not modest belt-tightening, is the generic outcome of price controls.
19 January
18 January
20 November 2025
19 October 2025
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Their words
With great freedom comes great responsibility. You have the autonomy to choose what to work on, but there's the expectation of accountability and impact.
4 September 2025
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Their words
These are weird and rare outcomes. These don't usually happen. The vast majority of active predation is on stuff much, much, much smaller than you.
27 August 2025
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I think that changing societal outcome requires changing minds, and the "heft" that comes from many authors with different backgrounds endorsing a certain set of conclusions is hard to replicate with a link to a shared ChatGPT chat.
3 August 2025
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From my point of view, the key priority in the world today is to get us closer to viatopia, not to some particular narrow end-state.
16 July 2025
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I've always been very risk-conscious. And risk-conscious does not mean getting rid of risk. It means properly pricing it and understanding the potential outcomes.
19 April 2025
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People who can be trusted to make something inevitable are really rare, and are typically the bottleneck for how many different things a team or company can do at once.
15 April 2025
7 January 2025
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korrents.com
Planning is fundamentally a search problem: explore paths, predict outcomes, and pick the best one.Their words
Planning, at its core, is a search problem. You search among different paths towards the goal, predict the outcome (reward) of each path, and pick the path with the most promising outcome.
7 May 2024
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Their words
That is, labs should make sure that the safety measures they apply to their powerful models prevent unacceptably bad outcomes, even if the AIs are misaligned and intentionally try to subvert those safety measures.
30 April 2024
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korrents.com
Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.Their words
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
13 March 2024
From one piece Raising Agricultural Yields Spares Land 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Claims to the contrary could lead to a misallocation of investments and, consequently, worse environmental (and social) outcomes.
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Their words
Yield-boosting measures, however, always need to be thoughtfully paired with other measures to ensure that outcomes—environmental as well as social—are acceptable at the local level.
12 January 2024
15 March 2023
13 March 2023
21 September 2022
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korrents.com
People don't really control most outcomes, so the sensible response to events is to look for the good in them.Their words
We don't really control anything anyway, so we may as well find the good in things.
1 June 2022
4 April 2022
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Their words
When you take venture funding, you sign up for a rocket ship ride that will either take you to the moon or to crash-land painfully back on earth. Those are the only two choices. And both rides tend to require heavy extraction of value from the customer.
Announcing RedwoodJS 1.0 and $1M Fundingtom.preston-werner.com
11 December 2021
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Their words
We as a profession misunderstand and misuse the concept of backwards compatibility, both upstream and downstream, by focusing on narrow legalistic definitions instead of outcomes.
1 April 2021
20 October 2020
18 November 2019
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Their words
Air pollution is a very big deal. Its adverse effects on numerous health outcomes and general mortality are widely documented. However, our understanding of its cognitive costs is more recent and those costs are almost certainly still significantly under-emphasized. For example, cognitive effects are not mentioned in most EPA materials.
30 August 2018
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Their words
The work of Philip Tetlock, PhD and others has shown that people who have one big idea to explain everything (“hedgehogs” or ideologues) are very bad at accurately modeling the world, predicting outcomes, and recommending effective actions.
1 July 2017
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