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korrents.com
Most people who complete a PhD today will not land a tenure-track or tenured position, and the odds keep shrinking.Their words
If you hold a PhD today, your chance of having a tenure-track or tenured position is about 10% and falling.
Related posts
Sean Carroll Bluesky
California has a lot to answer for. Many falling-domino memes here.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
18 September
16 September
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Their words
Around the time liberalism gave way to "progressivism", people on the left started being wrong about a ton of stuff. Back in 2010, Democrats were right about maybe 85% of things. Now it's like...30%? With Republicans at maybe 15%?
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Technology is making everyone richer, as illustrated by lighting costs falling over 1000x.Their words
One data point in technology making everyone richer: the cost of lighting has decreased by over 1000x.
11 September
10 September
9 September
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Their words
while the money premium from college is falling, the friends and marriage premium from college is going up and probably will rise further still.
7 September
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Their words
If you're lamenting writing code by hand like something you love is being taken away from you, see if you can fall in love with solving problems instead. Maybe you'll find out that's what you really loved the whole time
3 September
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Their words
We are going to keep doing this ‘omg the new Chinese model is so good, America is cooked’ cycle for a while. Best get used to it.
29 August
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Their words
I read every DM people send me, even if I don’t reply to all. I’m constantly learning about new ideas, ways to improve our product, where we’re falling short, who could join our company next, where to invest… very grateful for the @x platform.
26 August
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Their words
I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we're planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shades, I don't know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there's a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future
23 August
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korrents.com
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.Their words
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
21 August
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
20 August
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Their words
The main cause of falling fertility globally over the last 200 years has been declining child mortality.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
15 August
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Their words
Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy empirically. If you look at the amount of power generated versus the amount amount of deaths, um it's even safer than solar, which is very strange because how does someone die from solar? that actually most solar is installed on roofs and people sometimes die falling off of a roof installing solar and if you add those deaths up it is actually a higher death per energy than the totality of nuclear energy in the world.
3 August
28 July
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Their words
I think startups tend to win when um the sort of like technology landscape is moving very quickly. uh when costs are coming down when cycle times are short and all of those things are happening right now.
26 July
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Their words
I'm seeing a trend here of declining revenue and traffic with indiehackers On my own projects too Maybe big VC products too but I wouldn't know cause they don't share revenue To me it seems clear BigAI is cannibalizing everything that used to be apps
14 July
11 July
6 July
30 June
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Their words
To real estate professionals, slowing growth or declines in rent are often signals to stop building new housing.
Some Things YIMBYs Tend To Get Wrong (and Right)strongtowns.org
23 June
11 June
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
things have to go really wrong for us to like just get over the threshold of uh you know, capital being productive enough to automate lots of work, but not be productive enough that that the interest rate is high and or the price of capital produced goods is falling a lot, okay? So, even without redistribution, a little bit of savings will save a lot of people.
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Their words
here prices are adjusting in this interesting way that too many macro models don't allow for, right? So, that what what a what's happening is what would be called investment specific technical change where yeah, the price of capital is like falling relative to the price of consumption instead of like the standard doing the standard macro thing of saying there's just output.
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Their words
the capital stock could grow quickly, but the price of capital goods relative to consumption goods could be falling faster than the capital stock is growing.
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Their words
They just recently released a report, and I think like you really have to squint to see anything happening. Like basically, if you want to take kind of like uh an an approach across the entire economy and looking at even looking at like software engineering, like the most exposed sort of sectors, there's just like not really anything going on. There might be a little bit of a signal about like junior developers getting jobs less than before, and that but that's like a less than before rather than a level shift.
26 May
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Their words
It just is marriage. Turkish fertility started falling super fast after 2013 because Turkish marriage rates started falling super fast after 2013.
29 April
20 April
15 April
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Their words
Pick your ASIC team where you can say I can bet the farm of I can bet my entire business that you will be here for me every single year. Your cost, your token cost will decrease by an order of magnitude every single year. I can count on it like I can count on the clock.
6 April
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Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
1 April
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Their words
Complacency is death. I mean like every the world will move faster and faster and the moment we stand still we are falling behind.
23 March
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Their words
You know, our computer price is going up, but our token generation effectiveness is going up so much faster that token cost is coming down. It's just coming down an order of magnitude every year.
13 March
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Their words
So when you look at inference at let's say 100 tokens a second for deepseek and kimk 2.5 hopper versus blackwell the performance difference is on the order of 20x
22 July 2025
15 July 2025
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Their words
the key point is that as child mortality declines, live births can be allowed to decline without changing desired family size
There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com
1 July 2025
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korrents.com
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.Their words
My qualitative research has taught me one thing: culture is malleable! So surely this issue is fixable!
5 May 2025
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Their words
To be falling. That is the purest experience of gravity. The experience of gravity, unfettered, uninterrupted by atoms is weightlessness.
20 February 2025
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Their words
But over the past 50 years, there has been a massive decline in fertility. This entails fewer cousins of a suitable age.
1 November 2024
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Their words
Nicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
24 August 2024
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