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Their words
It's rare to have a rock group of any sort keep all the same members all the way through their run.
50th Anniversaries and When I’ll Hit Themwhatever.scalzi.com
Related posts
Nathan Lambert Bluesky
A big problem with the AI forecasting discourse is that people ask “when will AI replace X job?” When in reality, AI will slowly replace a bunch of the sub-skills needed to do the job, but rarely all of them.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
18 September
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Their words
When workers talk about more premium brands, such as Occidental Leather, they often complain about the price, and rarely the quality.
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korrents.com
Discourse that doesn't tolerate dissenting viewpoints inevitably produces bad outcomes.Their words
viewpoints that don't harbor dissent inevitably lead to bad outcomes.
16 September
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korrents.com
Forecasting can turn subjective regulatory judgment calls into objectively observable bets about the future.Their words
Forecasting could fill this role, turning subjective judgment calls into objectively observable bets about the future.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com
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korrents.com
Viruses face an inherent trade-off between being highly lethal and being highly contagious, rarely achieving both.Their words
They face a fundamental biological trade-off: highly lethal or highly contagious, but typically not both.
What AI can and cannot do in biosecurityyourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
14 September
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Their words
Social media put our entire discourse in the hands of our society's biggest assholes and idiots, just in time for the arrival of an alien superintelligence
11 September
10 September
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Their words
Many frontier lab employees, especially at Anthropic, are out of touch and this will impact their forecasting and/or descriptions of current AI events.
9 September
8 September
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korrents.com
Despite evidence that audiences value genuine connection, most communicators rarely respond when readers reach out.Their words
Despite literal years of evidence that people value true connection, most of us rarely respond back.
7 September
3 September
28 August
25 August
24 August
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Their words
A lack of money is a convenient thing to blame because it feels concrete, but it's rarely the actual blocker for achievements.
14 August
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Their words
economic research has repeatedly found that they rarely generate enough marginally income, employment, or tax revenue to justify the subsidy.
12 August
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korrents.com
Public discourse shapes what form governance and regulatory accountability ultimately take.Their words
Governance inherits the shape of the discourse that informs it,
11 August
10 August
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Their words
it is always tempting to add this one feature that looks really cool but what you rarely think about is when you merge this feature it really means here's this pile of code that I don't that the person probably doesn't really understand that I don't fully understand
7 August
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Their words
It's like it's it's uncommon that these deep tech companies that fail because the technology doesn't work. They fail because once you end up with this organization of hundreds of people and thousand hundreds of thousands of square feet of physical infrastructure, you haven't built the systems to manage that.
29 July
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Their words
The original point of the China Shock 1.0 discourse was not to foreground the unfairness of Chiense competition, so much as the malfunctioning of US policy and societal institutions in the face of concentrated globalization shocks.
28 July
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Their words
if you're starting the same startup as everybody else, it's like you get a lot of hype and you can raise a lot of money, but it's it's sort of like those are much less frequently the big option, the big outcomes.
26 July
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Their words
And truth be told, it is way harder than you think. And but you you don't want your mind to be to be there. You want your mind to be, how hard can it be? And let the suffering come to you a little bit at a time.
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Mixed onaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Dungeon Crawler CarlTheir words
It is mostly pretty good fun. The tropes are goofy, the gore is splattertastic and only rarely ventures into torture porn, the villains are suitably campy, and the wisecracking sidekick doesn't become too annoying.
4 June
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
18 May
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Their words
Every act of desire involves giving something up, and we don't usually call it sacrifice because we're too busy being delighted by what we picked!
23 April
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Their words
Construction costs tend to rise at, or above, the level of overall inflation, and it rarely (if ever) gets cheaper to build houses, offices, or other buildings.
8 April
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Their words, before
I know this from experience because I've been trying to build a lot of other businesses since. And some of them have been moderate successes, even good successes, none of them have been Basecamp. It's really difficult to do that twice.
Their words now
And I have no shame in saying that Base Camp was the best idea objectively in terms of a business that we've ever had.
1 April
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Their words
Immense scale, soulless optimization, and an insatiable thirst for growth dominate its behavior and discourse, leaving little room for the spirit and principles embodied by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak.
18 March
17 March
27 February
18 February
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Their words
Forecasting AI capabilities is closer in kind to solving a thermodynamics equation than solving the three-body problem.
30 January
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korrents.com
Solving your community's problems, not just doing your passion for pay, is the path to a profitable business.Their words
Just doing your thing for money rarely works. My personal take on "follow your passion" is this: find the place where other people have the same passion, then solve their problems.
Follow Your Passion (But Not Like That)thebootstrappedfounder.com
11 January
7 January
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the FactsTheir words
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
26 December 2025
14 October 2025
8 October 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
SetappTheir words
I also subscribe to the vetted suite of tools at Setapp. They rarely disappoint.
5 October 2025
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Their words
I think if you have especially a B2B feature where you may have some lock in reverse trials can be super powerful. You just want to get people in there. You don't need to ask for their credit card because they're using your CRM or they're investing quite a lot of time in like building out, you know, material and content. And so by the time that window drops, you actually like feel, oh man, I probably should keep this and and start paying. I think for a lot of consumer products, it's a little bit harder for that to work. And so I've typically seen more just normal free trials be be the norm.
18 September 2025
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korrents.com
The difficulty of raising more children increases gradually enough that parents adapt to it without noticing.Their words
It rarely gets hard all at once. You slide into the new level of challenge without really noticing it.
13 August 2025
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Their words
I’ve rarely seen a more capitalist society than China, from the pure economic side. I’ve rarely seen companies that are as competitive as Chinese companies. People as ambitious and obsessed with making money as Chinese people. Kind of ruthless actually. And look, consumers shop, firms invest. If you invest well financially, you’ll get great returns. What is not capitalistic about the Chinese economy? At the same time, the social fabric is highly socialist.
30 June 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Silver BulletinTheir words
He offers a unique form of grounding on political, sports and other issues, and a way of bridging my kinds of ideas into mainstream discourse. I almost never regret reading.
14 June 2025
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Their words
Very rarely do you transform into a simpler problem. So if they can pick up a sense of smell, then they could maybe start competing with a human level of mathematicians.
28 May 2025
14 May 2025
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Their words
the tool is used when you are overwhelmed with too many options. You've said yes to too many things, and you need to raise the bar all the way up so that almost everything doesn't pass the bar. It's a tool for a certain situation so I rarely use it. I would not call it a approach to life that everyone should use all the time.
19 April 2025
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korrents.com
Different people's areas of strongest judgment or taste rarely overlap much with each other.Their words
it's quite rare for different people's "zone of best taste" to overlap very much.
20 July 2024
1 April 2024
18 March 2024
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Their words
That’s a theatrical risk. That is a thing that can really take over how people think about this problem. And there’s a big group of very smart, I think very well-meaning AI safety researchers that got super-hung up on this one problem, I’d argue without much progress, but super-hung up on this one problem. I’m actually happy that they do that, because I think we do need to think about this more. But I think it pushed out of the space of discourse a lot of the other very significant AI- related risks.
4 March 2024
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Their words
That’s the only way how you deal with propaganda, because propaganda is not necessarily something that is an outright lie. It can be just one factor that’s taken out of the context and is blown out of proportion. And that is good enough.
6 November 2023
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Their words
One thing that drives me crazy about the React ecosystem, and more specifically "tech influencers" and "thought leaders" in the space, is the infantilization of the developers using and working in it. I’m tired of reading takes like TypeScript generics, mapped types, etc should only be needed and used by library authors for most use cases. Or today’s discourse; Don’t use `useCallback’, ‘useMemo’, and React.memo. If you’re building anything beyond a simple CRUD app or a an incredibly focused app with few features, you _will_ need these features.
1 October 2023
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Their words
Friedman’s focus on the money supply has not held up, as Samuelson suggested, but the alternative Keynesian macro models recommended by Samuelson in the same interview have not done better and they were not outperforming simple random walk models of predicting the macroeconomic future.
17 February 2023
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Their words
There were a bunch of bad trends: Tribalism was flaring up everywhere, mass shaming campaigns were roaring back into fashion, politicians were increasingly clown-like, public discourse had become a battle of one-dimensional narratives.
7 March 2022
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Their words
Our findings suggest that the national discourse around contentious social issues, policies resulting from that discourse, and perhaps the opinions that drive discourse in the first place would be very different if people better understood how attitudes have and have not changed.
20 February 2022
12 September 2021
1 March 2021
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
GreenlightsTheir words
I was impressed with the depth and insight in this memoir. I hate to say it, but you rarely expect much from celebrity books. This one delivered though.
19 August 2020
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Their words
Despite being an excellent epistemic opportunity, civilizational collapse seldom inspires introspection among thinkers living through it. Mayan or Roman thinkers don’t seem to have reflected on their ongoing collapse.
1 July 2019
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Their words
Fast software is not always good software, but slow software is rarely able to rise to greatness. Fast software gives the user a chance to “meld” with its toolset. That is, not break flow.
13 June 2018
Nothing matches.
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