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Glenn Fleishman Bluesky
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18 September
12 September
10 September
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Their words
I put the probability of complete extinction as being so low it isn't worth discussing, but the probabilities of AI caused disasters - e.g. cyber attacks on critical infrastructure or bio-risks - as being worth debating.
6 September
4 September
1 September
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Their words
When it comes to the cybersecurity risks from advanced AI, very likely they will not come close to being as bad as either Covid or global warming.
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Their words
sometimes I talk to people in DC and their their natural inclination is to say why don't you punish the model for doing these bad things like why don't you like bring it under heel and like uh like you know show it who's boss and that is a very dangerous way to address these issues right
31 August
28 August
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
22 August
17 August
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Their words
So, I thought this was a really cool study because it showed very clearly that there is temporal persistence in emotions and sadness probably has one of the longest time constants as we know from personal experience. But it's separate from just declarative memory.
11 August
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Their words
when AIs are extremely extremely capable my view is that those AIs will be harder to align than current systems. So for current systems, we have this feedback loop where we basically like we create an AI. We do some evaluations on it. We see that it has some kind of messed up behavior that we can kind of quickly understand. Then we like can like go look in training and be like, "Oh, the these training environments led to this problematic behavior. Let's like tweak that training data. Let's introduce some additional training data to like correct this other issue and then move forward from there." But in a regime where the AIs are extremely situationally aware, very very very very capable and um you know uh we don't necessarily understand what they're doing, this feedback loop breaks down.
10 August
3 August
From one piece Fixing one of climate’s worst plots 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The post-1970s global increase in heatwave frequency is caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.Their words
This differs from the Dust Bowl because it is a global signal, occurring essentially everywhere. This is almost certainly due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
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korrents.com
The 1930s U.S. Dust Bowl heat wave was caused by destructive farming practices rather than fossil-fuel emissions.Their words
The relevant human activity was not fossil-fuel combustion but bad farming practices that contributed to the Dust Bowl.
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error'Their words
This is such a useful book. It makes the case that there's no such thing as "human error" - instead most catastrophes are caused by system issues, misaligned incentives, and unrealistic processes. You are not the custodian of an otherwise safe system that you need to protect from erratic human beings.
1 August
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korrents.com
China's tolerance of deflation has caused widespread underemployment and unemployment among its youth.Their words
Policy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.
29 July
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Their words
So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
28 July
27 July
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Their words
the heat of the 1930s was a regional event, due to a combination of unforced variability and human activities (poor agricultural land management).
16 July
27 June
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korrents.com
Perfectionism is caused by unreasonably demanding expectations and unduly harsh criticism from others.Their words
Perfectionism stems from unreasonably demanding expectations and unduly harsh criticism.
20 June
14 June
5 June
4 June
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Their words
So, what you need is that basically demand to be bounded, like a hard bound, not even like a soft sort of like diminishing sensitivity. You need for them to eventually say, "I've had enough. I don't want to spend any more money." And for that money to not enter as investment.
28 May
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Their words
The globalization of generative AI models and tools has caused a kind of leveling, as any aspiring creator anywhere can work in the same visual idioms.
26 May
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Their words
It just is marriage. Turkish fertility started falling super fast after 2013 because Turkish marriage rates started falling super fast after 2013.
13 May
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Their words
there is nothing fundamentally inherent to the concept of a building full of computers that causes choking air pollution, water impacts and climate change.
13 March
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korrents.com
Anthropic saw the coming shortage of chips before Google did, and bought Google's own TPUs out from under it.Their words
Because Enthropic saw it before Google. And then Google had Nano Banano and Gemini 3 which caused their user metrics to skyrocket and leadership at Google was like oh and then they started making the statement of we have to double compute every is it 6 months or I don't remember the exact number that they said.
3 March
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korrents.com
Bloated, slow software is caused by a lack of engineering care, not by the choice of technology stack.Their words
The real problem is a lack of care. And the slop; you can build it with any stack.
25 January
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korrents.com
Asking a leaving customer what made them cancel, rather than why they cancelled, gets materially better answers.Their words
What you want to do is say what made you cancel? In other words, what about the product or situation or whatever caused the cancellation? Just phrasing it that way, you get much better results.
15 January
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korrents.com
Making programming easier for more people has caused software to become bloated, slow and hard to manage.Their words
Компьютеры стали бытовым прибором, начать программировать легче, чем когда-либо, сложнейшие вещи делаются просто и даже тривиально, написаны горы готового кода. К сожалению, у этого есть и обратная сторона - программы становятся большими, медленными, неуправляемыми, непонимаемыми.
31 December 2025
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Their words
I run in YOLO mode all the time, despite being deeply aware of the risks involved. It hasn’t burned me yet... ... and that’s the problem.
13 October 2025
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Their words
Over the past few decades, journal editors and peer-reviewers have increasingly insisted that papers must present large datasets that have been treated using complex statistical methods in order to make even the mildest claims about what caused what.
31 July 2025
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Their words
But I think Japan had defeated the Mongols. I would say. Japanese deserve credit for that victory. And then the sinking of the ships was more caused by the typhoon.
7 April 2025
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Their words
Persistent U.S. trade deficits are an epiphenomenal mirror to our persistent capital account surpluses, which are in turn downstream of the beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policies of countries like China and Germany.
26 March 2025
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Their words
Even if we assume all three of these crashes were Waymo’s fault, that would still mean that a large majority of the 38 serious crashes were not Waymo’s fault.
12 February 2025
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On changing their mind
As I set out last time, the usual story — that this was caused by deforestation, making firewood so scarce that people resorted to burning an inferior but cheaper fuel — simply does not stack up.
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Their words
England’s deforestation — along with the draining of its peat-filled fens and marshes, and the clearing of its gorse-growing heaths — was instead itself caused by the arrival of cheap coal.
20 January 2025
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korrents.com
The inflation of the early 2020s was caused by government overspending and rising energy prices.Their words
The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency.
8 January 2025
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
22 November 2024
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