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Their words
no, I don't think AI will keep me from hitting any of these anniversaries as a working writer, unless it triggers the apocalypse, in which case we have other problems.
50th Anniversaries and When I’ll Hit Themwhatever.scalzi.com
Related posts
Anil Seth x.com
Silicon-based digital AI is vanishingly unlikely to be, or become conscious. Short version here (https://t.co/FQLrSbssgo); longer version here (https://t.co/OWd3FVz9LU); really long version here:
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
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korrents.com
Fear of Satanic symbolism in policymakers predicts poor judgment on Middle East policy.Their words
Such people are unlikely to make good judgments about Middle East issues.
17 September
11 September
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Their words
I think appreciation of the contingency starts with observing that the whole idea of hijacking airplanes in order to destroy the World Trade Center is eccentric.
9 September
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Their words
the largest tech companies (at the top 1%) aren't using fewer tokens, they're just being cost conscious and moving to cheaper, still very capable open models running vs SOTA model usage
8 September
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Their words
If this is only due to gains in capabilities, that is extremely bad news, and it means CoT monitoring is unlikely to survive for another year unless we find a way to actively improve it, and it might not last six months.
5 September
4 September
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Their words
the temperatures produced under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are a reasonable upper bound on what the future climate might be.
1 September
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Their words
For the record, I do not think the end of human existence is likely, but I fully acknowledge there are ways in which the rise of self-sovereign AI could go very, very poorly for human beings.
31 August
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korrents.com
AI systems are not sentient, and the odds of them being sentient are vanishingly small.Their words
I am very much opposed to the view that the AIs are sentient, or might be sentient. I view that as a category error , and the chances of it being true are vanishingly small.
26 August
22 August
17 August
From one piece Neuroscience of Emotions & Tools for Improving Emotion Regulation | Dr. Ralph Adolphs 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think it's a uniquely at least as we have it it's uniquely human emotion and it's based on a broad sort of metacognitive ability we have which is to detach our conscious experience from the here and now and do like mental time travel.
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Their words
And the other question is if you tie emotion to the the conscious experience of emotion, that is you equate you conflate emotions with feelings. Well, then you're not studying emotions, you're studying consciousness.
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Their words
This is not to be complacent about the risks, but it is to urge caution when assuming that shifting the perceptions of other societies will ever be straightforward.
16 August
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Their words
It was a great 5 minute TED talk, but making a book out of it is meh. Very repetitive and self-conscious. Nothing new here.
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Their words
This was a great motivation when I started running, but it’s a very niche book.
10 August
25 July
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Their words
If a subway line or a train station or a similar rail megaproject has an internationally renowned architect in charge, it costs too much and is unlikely to be functional.
Conflict About the FRA Study on Penn Stationpedestrianobservations.com
16 July
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Their words
the most pressing question is not whether the machines are on the verge of sentience, since the likelihood of that seems low.
Notebooks And The Extended Mindadjacentpossible.substack.com
30 June
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korrents.com
Today's level of city living depends on cheap fossil fuels and is unlikely to survive without them.Their words
However, in our non-ideal biophysical reality, present levels of urbanism are unlikely to be sustainable without cheap fossil fuels, and the human cost of that could be horrific unless we address it urgently.
24 June
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Their words
I have no faith in the people in charge of the future, but humanity isn't going to change any time soon.
16 June
9 June
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korrents.com
Optimising a single metric is a trap, because the second-order consequences of the change only surface much later.Their words
you got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top.
5 June
27 May
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korrents.com
Consciousness belongs only to simulations, not to the physical brains or computers running them.Their words
neither brains nor computers are conscious, as only simulations can be conscious.
11 May
8 May
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Their words
At even $500/kg, launch cost is only 5% of the total satellite deployment cost, so a lunar mass driver is unlikely to drastically improve the economics of space-based AI, by reducing launch costs.
1 May
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Their words
if we can't solve the sadist problem in nursing homes I don't see how we can assume it's solved in cows.
28 April
22 April
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Their words
So, what if geopolitics was to go horribly wrong and tensions escalate and Europe find itself suddenly locked out of US cloud services? I hope that doesn't happen. I still think it's fairly unlikely, but it's no longer unthinkable.
18 February
10 February
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korrents.com
Manufacturing and mining in space will never be lucrative enough to pay for human settlement of space.Their words, before
Furthermore, I believe it’s very unlikely that space-based manufacturing or mining could be lucrative enough to fund the venture.
Their words now
Today, exploding demand for power-intensive AI applications provides enough of an upside to justify producing components in space, providing the economic engine necessary to justify and fund the trillions of dollars necessary to build and sustain space factories.
4 February
15 January
7 January
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The 15 Commitments of Conscious LeadershipTheir words
This book dramatically changed me as a leader and as a person. It will help you develop self-awareness and connect deeply with your sense of purpose as a leader. If I could recommend one book to help you develop the human skills behind the
4 December 2025
22 October 2025
From one piece To Be Useful You Must Risk Offending 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
An idea I'm trying to hold tighter is that the only way to be useful here is to risk offending people. And perhaps if you're not taking any risk offending people then it's unlikely you're saying something useful.
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Their words
There is some truth to the idea that you are unlikely to go viral if you do not adopt some of this combative stance.
16 July 2025
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Their words
I've always been very risk-conscious. And risk-conscious does not mean getting rid of risk. It means properly pricing it and understanding the potential outcomes.
15 July 2025
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Their words
As a result, natural selection is very unlikely to have produced in humans any predisposition or preference for a certain number of births.
There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com
30 April 2025
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Their words
I think the big thing to realize for indie developers right now is there's massive, massive competition in every major genre, and it's very unlikely that unless you just happen to be the world's best at a particular thing that you're going to release a game in an existing highly competitive genre and win.
15 April 2025
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Their words
First and foremost: Perfect scores should be vanishingly rare. Instead of clumping the best candidates together, you should be able to clearly distinguish the 99th percentile from the 99.9th, 99.99th, and so on.
1 April 2025
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Their words
If you want to argue that human-level AI is extremely unlikely in the next 20 years, you certainly can, but you should treat that as a minority position where the burden of proof is on you.
21 March 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Conscious Accomplishment: How to Use Personal Achievement for Spiritual GrowthTheir words
A guide for ambitious people who feel called to inner work, showing how to use goals, career, and achievement as fuel for consciousness growth instead of a source of endless striving.
12 February 2025
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
You Need a Budget (YNAB)Their words
You Need a Budget (YNAB) is a simple to use (but sophisticated under the hood) bit of budgeting software that uses the principles of human habits and behavioral finance to make you more conscious and efficient in your spending.
4 January 2025
1 January 2025
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Their words, before
Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025
Their words now
This is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century.
16 December 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The First 90 DaysTheir words
When joining a new company, your perception is shaped massively in your first 3 months. It takes a lot of work to change that perception later. This book is a practical guide on how to be conscious in focusing on getting up to speed, faster. (My rating: ★★★★★)
13 June 2024
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korrents.com
We are conscious because we are objects extended deep in time — consciousness is all of that history rolled up in us.Their words
Yeah. I think if you’re thinking about this thinking about living things as these giant causal structures or these objects that are deep in time or whatever language we end up using to describe it seems to me that consciousness is about the fact that we have a conscious experience is because we are these temporally extended objects. Consciousness and the abstraction that we have in our minds is actually a manifestation of all the time that’s rolled up in us.
25 February 2024
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korrents.com
Someone who can't name what they'd do differently is unlikely to be good at improving over time.Their words
if the person responds to "what would you do differently" with "nothing," or with non-actionable vague platitudes, it's a sign they may not be great at figuring out how to get better at things over time.
1 January 2024
23 December 2023
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Their words
Such prolificacy is unlikely to be repeated any time soon; if current trends hold, a drug discovery scientist starting their career today is likely to retire without ever having worked on a single drug that makes it to market.
3 December 2023
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Their words
That was originally one of the hopes of Large Hadron Collider. I’d say at this point, it would be very unlikely given what they’ve already accomplished, but there are these underground detectors, xenon detectors that look for dark matter coming in, and they are going to try to achieve a much stronger bound than exists today.
19 August 2023
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korrents.com
It is unclear whether a digital emulation of a person could ever be conscious, even in principle.Their words
But it is not clear at all that such a being could even exist in principle.
7 September 2022
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korrents.com
AI will out-think us, but it will not become conscious, because consciousness is a property of life.Their words
But in terms of what we value the most as humans, which is to say our feelings, our emotions, our sense of what the world is in a very personal way that I think means as much or more to people than their information processing. And that’s where I don’t think that AI necessarily will become conscious because I think it’s the property of life.
13 February 2022
16 August 2021
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Their words
the perfectionist's fantasy of reaching her deathbed with a perfect record of accomplishments under her belt isn't just extremely unlikely, but doomed from the start
16 June 2017
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