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Their words
no, I don't think AI will keep me from hitting any of these anniversaries as a working writer, unless it triggers the apocalypse, in which case we have other problems.
50th Anniversaries and When I’ll Hit Themwhatever.scalzi.com
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20 September
19 September
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korrents.com
Fear of Satanic symbolism in policymakers predicts poor judgment on Middle East policy.Their words
Such people are unlikely to make good judgments about Middle East issues.
17 September
11 September
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Their words
I think appreciation of the contingency starts with observing that the whole idea of hijacking airplanes in order to destroy the World Trade Center is eccentric.
8 September
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Their words
If this is only due to gains in capabilities, that is extremely bad news, and it means CoT monitoring is unlikely to survive for another year unless we find a way to actively improve it, and it might not last six months.
4 September
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Their words
the temperatures produced under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are a reasonable upper bound on what the future climate might be.
1 September
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Their words
For the record, I do not think the end of human existence is likely, but I fully acknowledge there are ways in which the rise of self-sovereign AI could go very, very poorly for human beings.
31 August
26 August
17 August
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Their words
This is not to be complacent about the risks, but it is to urge caution when assuming that shifting the perceptions of other societies will ever be straightforward.
16 August
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Their words
This was a great motivation when I started running, but it’s a very niche book.
25 July
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Their words
If a subway line or a train station or a similar rail megaproject has an internationally renowned architect in charge, it costs too much and is unlikely to be functional.
Conflict About the FRA Study on Penn Stationpedestrianobservations.com
16 July
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Their words
the most pressing question is not whether the machines are on the verge of sentience, since the likelihood of that seems low.
Notebooks And The Extended Mindadjacentpossible.substack.com
30 June
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korrents.com
Today's level of city living depends on cheap fossil fuels and is unlikely to survive without them.Their words
However, in our non-ideal biophysical reality, present levels of urbanism are unlikely to be sustainable without cheap fossil fuels, and the human cost of that could be horrific unless we address it urgently.
24 June
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Their words
I have no faith in the people in charge of the future, but humanity isn't going to change any time soon.
22 May
From one piece Impeach Todd Blanche 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
A minority party can peel off enough opposition-party votes to pass impeachment articles despite being outnumbered.Their words
I think it's likely Democrats could peel off enough Republicans to actually pass an impeachment resolution against Blanche.
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korrents.com
Republican lawmakers have lost the party cohesion needed to shield a Trump ally from an impeachment trial.Their words
My guess is Republicans have lost the necessary cohesion to fall on Trump's sword and block a trial.
11 May
8 May
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Their words
At even $500/kg, launch cost is only 5% of the total satellite deployment cost, so a lunar mass driver is unlikely to drastically improve the economics of space-based AI, by reducing launch costs.
1 May
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Their words
if we can't solve the sadist problem in nursing homes I don't see how we can assume it's solved in cows.
28 April
22 April
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Their words
So, what if geopolitics was to go horribly wrong and tensions escalate and Europe find itself suddenly locked out of US cloud services? I hope that doesn't happen. I still think it's fairly unlikely, but it's no longer unthinkable.
10 February
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korrents.com
Manufacturing and mining in space will never be lucrative enough to pay for human settlement of space.Their words, before
Furthermore, I believe it’s very unlikely that space-based manufacturing or mining could be lucrative enough to fund the venture.
Their words now
Today, exploding demand for power-intensive AI applications provides enough of an upside to justify producing components in space, providing the economic engine necessary to justify and fund the trillions of dollars necessary to build and sustain space factories.
22 October 2025
From one piece To Be Useful You Must Risk Offending 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
An idea I'm trying to hold tighter is that the only way to be useful here is to risk offending people. And perhaps if you're not taking any risk offending people then it's unlikely you're saying something useful.
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Their words
There is some truth to the idea that you are unlikely to go viral if you do not adopt some of this combative stance.
15 July 2025
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Their words
As a result, natural selection is very unlikely to have produced in humans any predisposition or preference for a certain number of births.
There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com
30 April 2025
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Their words
I think the big thing to realize for indie developers right now is there's massive, massive competition in every major genre, and it's very unlikely that unless you just happen to be the world's best at a particular thing that you're going to release a game in an existing highly competitive genre and win.
1 April 2025
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Their words
If you want to argue that human-level AI is extremely unlikely in the next 20 years, you certainly can, but you should treat that as a minority position where the burden of proof is on you.
1 January 2025
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Their words, before
Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025
Their words now
This is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century.
25 February 2024
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korrents.com
Someone who can't name what they'd do differently is unlikely to be good at improving over time.Their words
if the person responds to "what would you do differently" with "nothing," or with non-actionable vague platitudes, it's a sign they may not be great at figuring out how to get better at things over time.
23 December 2023
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Their words
Such prolificacy is unlikely to be repeated any time soon; if current trends hold, a drug discovery scientist starting their career today is likely to retire without ever having worked on a single drug that makes it to market.
3 December 2023
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Their words
That was originally one of the hopes of Large Hadron Collider. I’d say at this point, it would be very unlikely given what they’ve already accomplished, but there are these underground detectors, xenon detectors that look for dark matter coming in, and they are going to try to achieve a much stronger bound than exists today.
13 February 2022
16 August 2021
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Their words
the perfectionist's fantasy of reaching her deathbed with a perfect record of accomplishments under her belt isn't just extremely unlikely, but doomed from the start
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