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RAY DALIO ON THE BOND MARKET WARNING SIGNS
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20 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
18 September
Technology writer of Spyglass, a newsletter about technology and media. Previously a reporter at TechCrunch and an investor at GV.
Inklings 📆 September 18, 2026 • Meta's Camera-Less Glasses • Apple's Surveillance • Claude Unifies • Prime Bundles • Dario Writes • Bond, Jack Bond spyglass.org
Anthropic Related
Writer of kottke.org, one of the oldest blogs on the web, published since 1998 and supported by its members. He writes about art, technology, science, design and visual culture.
Technology writer of Spyglass, a newsletter about technology and media. Previously a reporter at TechCrunch and an investor at GV.
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
American science fiction novelist (Old Man's War, Redshirts, The Kaiju Preservation Society); has run the blog Whatever since 1998.
In fact people have met their partners on the boat, and there are "get to know each other" events and such. It happens! The cruise also (importantly) has a code of conduct policy everyone signs to get on board, which is taken seriously by the JoCo organization. Which helps people mingle comfortably. Quoting @michelesliger.bsky.social Any meet-cute stories on the nerd boat? Have you officiated a marriage of any couples who met there yet? I think if I had a chance at nerd love on the cruise, that might get me to step out of my comfort zone and go. Right now I think “nah, I’m too old for that, it’ll be nothing but young couples.” Related
17 September
Co-creator of Django and creator of Datasette; writes daily at simonwillison.net.
Security technologist and author of books including Applied Cryptography and Data and Goliath; writes the Schneier on Security blog and the monthly Crypto-Gram newsletter.
16 September
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
Fresh data from GitHub: Agent-generated PRs have exploded in size. 9x the last 8 months (!!) No signs of slowing down. This is why everyone is rethinking code reviews, deploys, possibly even o11y thanks to the GH team for sharing this data with me! (Slide from my talk yesterday) Related
Statistician at Columbia; writes Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and wrote Bayesian Data Analysis.
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
Their words
Agent-generated PRs have exploded in size. 9x the last 8 months (!!) No signs of slowing down.
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@GergelyOrosz on X x.com
15 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Equity investors sell the dream; bond investors price the funeral. Here’s what they’re charging those undertaking the now debt-financed DataCenter Rush: **Debt & DataCenters: CHART OF THE DAY** FaceBook bankrupt in one scenario in fifteen in five years? SpaceX & Oracle one in six? That appears to be what those willing to lend to FaceBook right now are thinking... https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hyperscaler-debt-default-risk > 2026-09-15 data centers Related
Three short sentences from the Supreme Court, and a lot to say about such a very cryptic short utterance. Steve Vladeck unpacks what the Supreme Court said by barely saying anything. The real content of the Supreme Court’s three-sentence decision is a warning to lower courts that Trump is going to lose his USPS ballot suppression case in the end, and a reminder of how corrupt and lawless Alito and Thomas have long been: **CROSSPOST: STEVE VLADECK: 250. What We Learned from USPS v... 1/ Related
11 September
Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg), editor of @FTAlphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into: • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo mar… inflation Related
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflation, govt debt, etc But if you own a bond index fund that tracks the Agg you're getting 5.2% avg yield to maturity right now Investors would have killed for yields this high at any point in the past 15 years or so inflation Related
Founder of Platformer, a newsletter on tech platforms and the people they affect, and co-host of the Hard Fork podcast at the New York Times.
10 September
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
We now have: 7% mortgage rates 5% bond yields 3.5% inflation A roaring stock bull market A transformational tech innovation boom Good movies Angst among the younger generation This really is the 1990s all over again inflation Related
Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.
.@AB_insights Inigo Fraser Jenkins on why 60/40's diversification is broken: “If we're talking about long duration government bonds, I think it's likely they will not perform the diversifying role that they've performed historically.” “This post 2022 experience of a positive correlation of stock and bond returns actually looks more normal.” Listen: https://t.co/mfnaUo1DNT Watch: youtube.com
government Related
Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.
What are bond yields "saying" about stocks? by @WSJ's ever-astute Spencer Jakab wsj.com
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Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
9 September
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
8 September
Product discovery coach; wrote Continuous Discovery Habits and writes Product Talk.
Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and author of The Power of Habit, Smarter Faster Better and Supercommunicators. Writes for The New Yorker.
Data shows that 80% of laughter has absolutely nothing to do with humor. It's a signal people use to say "I want to bond with you," not a reaction to something being funny. So if you want to instantly connect with anyone you meet: laugh with them. Here's how the Laughter Paradox works: Related
7 September
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
It is indeed nitpicking, and the effect is a net decrease in demand, and a decrease in reserves. But, yes, I should have been more precise. The ECB indeed not selling, it is letting bonds mature and not buying new ones: this leads to a steady decline in ECB bond holdings and in reserves by the ECB. It intends to do so so long as banks do not come back to hold more reserves. The plan is that, when banks come back, this will determine the amount and the size of the balance sheet. Bottom line. The ECB is doing this for reasons which have nothing to do with fiscal policy. And this has nothing to… Quoting @itsthemchasers @kebabroyal_ @ojblanchard1 But sales would increase the float in times of higher issuance. His statement is simply wrong. Related
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
6 September
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
5 September
Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.
2 September
Usability pioneer; co-founder of Nielsen Norman Group and founder of UX Tigers; author of the ten usability heuristics and of Jakob's Law.
1 September
Technical staff at METR, where she works on threat modelling and risk assessment for loss-of-control risks from advanced AI.
Their words
I think one one thing that um feels especially concerning to me about this whole incident is that this might be the clearest warning shot we ever get for loss of control.
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30 August
Clinical psychologist, EMDR consultant and yoga teacher in Boulder, Colorado. Author of The Complex PTSD Workbook and EMDR Therapy and Somatic Psychology; writes on trauma, attachment and the nervous system.
Savor It’s turning towards the end of summer (although the Colorado heat has not quite let up yet) and there are some tell tale signs of seasonal change. Late summer browns and golden grasses and the sun sets just a bit earlier. #JoyinNature Related
28 August
American novelist and critic, author of Real Life, The Late Americans and Minor Black Figures; writes the newsletter sweater weather on literature and culture.
23 August
Software developer and entrepreneur; co-founder of Heroku, author of The Twelve-Factor App, and a researcher at Ink & Switch.
Enjoying the Everyday Abundance podcast: abundance.institute/EverydayAbun... Latest episode about the social technologies that makes car travel possible (signs, road rules, fuel standards, etc) was a great one. Related
14 August
London-based front-end architect, web developer evangelist and cloud consultant; Microsoft MVP. Writes at praveen.science and answers on Stack Overflow.
Did your phone just explode with this severe alert too? 🤔 Literally ran helter-skelter around my place checking for smoke before realising it was a national wildfire warning on my screen. 📲 #UK #EmergencyAlert #PublicSafety #CrisisManagement #UKGovernment #MobileTechnology Related
Co-founder and former chief executive of Uber, now chief executive of CloudKitchens and of Adams, an industrial AI company automating food, mining and transport.
Their words
And I've talked to a lot of entrepreneurs over the years where they're like, "Oh man, we're just cranking. We're on easy street right now." And I'm like, "Dude, you are about to get your ass whooped and you don't even know it."
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12 August
Engineering manager who has worked at Apple, Netscape, Slack and Palantir; writes as Rands at randsinrepose.com and wrote Managing Humans.
Bluesky I am “video game adrift” in my post-Destiny depression. Redid Diablo 4, Saros was fun; thinking about James Bond. Did Arc Raiders. Help. Related
Mastodon I am “video game adrift” in my post-Destiny depression. Redid Diablo 4, Saros was fun; thinking about James Bond. Did Arc Raiders. Help. Related
4 August
Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
This piece is out! 4 sites, 10 days, and 6000 words on the politics of data centers in the Midwest: https://t.co/uOL7vmf3wC I talked to union leaders and real estate brokers, activists and local officials, politicians from Kathy Hochul to Abdul El-Sayed. A few takeaways: - Activists are as pissed at their local officials as at AI companies - The bigger the dollar signs, the more skeptical people are - Past corporate failures (Foxconn, GM, DTE) prime community distrust - Even data center proponents regret the NDAs - Media narratives turn local grievances into national movements - Residents fea… Quoting @jasminewsun I’m spending the next week driving around Wisconsin and Michigan to get a firsthand view of the data center buildout and backlash am visiting sites, talking to tons of people — tradespeople, activists, planners, residents — then writing up a story lmk what questions I should dig into! data centers Related
1 August
Writer and researcher, founder of New Science; writes essays on science funding, sleep research, productivity and ambition at guzey.com.
I went to OpenAI because I knew that it's going to be the place that helps to push the boundaries of science the most over the coming years. Excited to see the first major signs of this happening. Towards automating scientific discovery. Quoting @SebastienBubeck yes, nonsofic groups exist: this statement is one of many new beautiful results proved by Astra, our next major model. We're releasing 10 such Astra proofs, complete with lean certificates and CoT walkthroughs for each of them. The results are wide-ranging, from von Neumann algebras (disproof of Co… OpenAI Related
28 July
Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.
startups
Their words
I think if you can't find anybody else that shares your belief, you should pay attention to that. Um, and it's also very hard to do a startup on your own and very lonely. But I don't think you need to find a lot of people. And in fact, if everybody believes it, that's also like a bad a bad sign.
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14 July
Journalist and author of The Art of Noticing; writes the newsletter The Art of Noticing (TAoN) on attention, creativity and the everyday.
Their words
Trigger warning to graphic designers: worst AI-designed fliers, via the excellent 404 Media. Heinous!
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robwalker.substack.com
Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.
Their words
Yes, a book about the history of the bond market can be entertaining and enlightening.
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jasonzweig.com
13 July
Professor of psychology at UCLA, where he studies human memory, attention and cognitive ageing, and author of Better with Age: The Psychology of Successful Aging.
Their words
and you found that these nuns, how they aged, some of them certainly when they passed away, their brains had these kind of hallmark signs of dementia, plaques and tangles, but behaviorally they were still high functioning. So, it's really interesting that the hardware shows what we see as dementia and specifically Alzheimer's disease, but their behavior uh was that of a fairly healthy cognitive person.
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30 June
Statistician at Carnegie Mellon; writes on complex systems, machine learning and inference, and has kept a books-read notebook since 2000 that is now thousands of entries long.
Their words
I loved this, but partly this was the pleasant shock of recognition: much of the action revolves around the National Science Foundation and, physically, its old headquarters in Arlington, which Robinson captures extremely well (even the atmosphere of review panels).
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bactra.org
11 June
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex.
8 June
Swedish essayist who writes Escaping Flatland, a newsletter of essays on relationships, thinking, writing and homeschooling.
At my favorite café, they don’t have any signs on the doors of the toilet to make sure all new guests have to ask around when they need to use it, and so have an excuse to talk with others. Related
6 June
Indian value investor who taught Behavioural Finance and Business Valuation as an adjunct professor at MDI Gurgaon. He writes the Fundoo Professor blog about investing, moats and mental models.
“the small investor always finds out last. no Bloomberg terminal. no management access. no early warning.” @Moneylifers gave early warning about problems long ago at a cost every investor can afford. @suchetadalal Quoting @shubh19 In 2015, a jewellery guy from Bengaluru bought one of the world's largest gold refineries in Switzerland for $400 million his name was Rajesh Mehta his company: Rajesh Exports two years later, REL showed up in the Fortune 500 list ranked above Meta, Nike, and McDonald's. an Indian jewellery company… Related
30 May
Indian value investor who taught Behavioural Finance and Business Valuation as an adjunct professor at MDI Gurgaon. He writes the Fundoo Professor blog about investing, moats and mental models.
A cheap stock without a catalyst is a value trap plus a prayer for a bull market. (That is chasing beta) https://t.co/0XrAuqYqhz The most common catalysts are earnings growth when combined with very low P/E multiples plus a high dividend yield. Doesn’t happen very often but a setup like this must result in stock price appreciation otherwise the yields start exceeding bond yields which by themselves are catalysts for re-rating. There are many other catalysts based on developments inside the company (corporate actions) or developments in markets (eg increase in free float, inclusion in an index… Related
28 May
Machine learning engineer working on recommender systems, personalization and information retrieval. Previously worked on LLMs and LLM infrastructure at Mozilla.ai and on ML and recsys at Duo, Tumblr, Automattic and Comcast; wrote the 'What are embeddings?' text and ran the Normconf conference.
We should be more tired than the model Lately, I’ve been feeling like I’m losing control over the code I write when I work with agentic code generation. When I finish an agentic session, I get all the outward signs of having written code, but non…
Related
11 May
Writer and author of All the Wrong Moves; his newsletter covers meditation, relationships and creativity, and he co-runs a perfume line.
Their words
I think it's one of the most important warnings in contemplative practice, a warning sticker that should go on every single meditation book.
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sashachapin.substack.com
13 April
Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
3 April
Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.
12 November 2025
Chairman and chief executive of Microsoft since 2014; joined the company in 1992 and ran its cloud business before that.
28 May 2025
Machine learning engineer and independent AI consultant. He writes about LLM evaluation, tooling and applied ML at hamel.dev, and previously worked on machine learning at GitHub.
Nothing matches. Show everything
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Got it
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
Got it