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Technology writer of Spyglass, a newsletter about technology and media. Previously a reporter at TechCrunch and an investor at GV.

• Bluesky🫟 Inklings 📆 September 18, 2026 • Meta's Camera-Less Glasses • Apple's Surveillance • Claude Unifies • Prime Bundles • Dario Writes • Bond, Jack Bond

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• NewsletterInklings #026 📧

  Meta's Camera-Less Glasses • Apple's Surveillance • Claude Unifies • Prime Bundles • Dario Writes • Bond, Jack Bond

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Long-term Treasuries now have a negative total return going back to the start of 2015 It's more than a lost decade for long bonds (and even worse after inflation)

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• This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why?

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Animal Spirits: How to Talk To Your Clients About Ray Dalio

  On today's show we discuss AI human extinction fears, the biggest AI risks, why things go viral, why the stock market is so confusing right now, how to think about bearish hedge fund managers, why bonds offer a good dea…

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Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.

• Equity investors sell the dream; bond investors price the funeral. Here’s what they’re charging those undertaking the now debt-financed DataCenter Rush: **Debt & DataCenters: CHART OF THE DAY** FaceBook bankrupt in one scenario in fifteen in five years? SpaceX & Oracle one in six? That appears to be what those willing to lend to FaceBook right now are thinking... https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hyperscaler-debt-default-risk > 2026-09-15

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Let me stay away from personal remarks. As you kindly invited me to do so, I am happy to continue our exchange. Let me start by reproducing and then commenting on three remarks you make in your two recent tweets. “I know full well what justified the use of OATi in 1998, namely a lower interest rate since the investor takes on less risk. Except that today, with the international context and climate disruption making prices more volatile, the cost of these indexed bonds is rising.” My humble view: More volatile inflation makes inflation protected bonds more, not less attractive. “As such, I sta…
  Quoting@ericcoquerelPas de souci pour échanger des arguments avec vous @ojblanchard1 mais un tout petit peu moins de condescendance dans l’échange ne serait pas de trop 🔽. Le résultat des politiques économiques que vous avez soutenues depuis des années devrait, je pense, vous amener à un peu plus d’humilité. Je sais…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• i was going to write something, but Quentin beat me to it... Let me put it another way, so that Chairman Coquerel @ericcoquerel understands and corrects his statement. When a state issues nominal bonds (bonds that pay in euros), the real value of interest payments varies with inflation, creating risk for investors. So they require a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk. In issuing inflation protected bonds, the state eliminates the risk and thus is able to get a lower rate. This decreases the burden of the debt. This is good. Always happy to help the Chair of the Finance Committee…
  Quoting@QuentinVandewe2Est-ce que LFI organise un concours Lépine pour la théorie du complot la plus idiote sur la dette ? Après la Banque de France qui revendrait la dette en secret, Mélenchon découvre que l'État « vient de proposer de nouveau des titres indexés sur le capital et des intérêts compensant l'inflation ». U…

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Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.

• Listening carefully doesn't just avoid misunderstandings. It also bolsters bonds during arguments. 5 studies: Even if people don’t find common ground, when they feel heard, they leave feeling more connected, capable, and optimistic. Agreement is not a prerequisite for respect.

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg), editor of @FTAlphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into: • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo mar…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Good question, even if framed too aggressively. But the answer is no. During QE, given the zero lower bound that prevented further decreases in policy rates, the ECB bought long maturity national bonds, including those of France, so as to decrease long-term interest rates and help countries, including France. Now, as we are away from the lower bound, there are few reasons to keep as many of them. As these are sold (or not rolled over at maturity) through QT, this indeed likely increases long rates a bit and makes it harder for France to adjust. If selling these bonds turns out to be strongly…
  Quoting@RobianoAntoineLe raisonnement paraît juste mais - L'annulation de la dette détenue retirerait à la BCE l'une de ces nombreuses sources de pouvoir exorbitant, celui de revendre des titres de dette publique d'un Etat pour contraindre politiquement ce dernier ?

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflation, govt debt, etc But if you own a bond index fund that tracks the Agg you're getting 5.2% avg yield to maturity right now Investors would have killed for yields this high at any point in the past 15 years or so

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Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.

• YouTubeShortRAY DALIO ON THE BOND MARKET WARNING SIGNS

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• x.comThis happens as long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates. Though they try to hold short rates down, long rates are climbing, a trend we are already seeing. We are also seeing a weakening dollar and movements in gold. As rates rise, it starts to affect the stock market. With bonds dropping and stocks rising, the prospective returns of stocks are now low compared to bonds, translating into broader stock market pressure. This classic dynamic creates a stagflationary environment that the Federal Reserve struggles to manage. With current stagflation, the Fed wrestles with whether to tight…

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• We now have: 7% mortgage rates 5% bond yields 3.5% inflation A roaring stock bull market A transformational tech innovation boom Good movies Angst among the younger generation This really is the 1990s all over again

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• Real current drawdowns in fixed income: TIP 19% T-bills 20% AGG 25% LQD 27% IEF 32% TLT 55% Zeros 😱😱 If you respond yEs BUT i iNveSt in InIDVIDual BonDs so I don't have this problem you're going to get blocked. via

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• .@AB_insights Inigo Fraser Jenkins on why 60/40's diversification is broken: “If we're talking about long duration government bonds, I think it's likely they will not perform the diversifying role that they've performed historically.” “This post 2022 experience of a positive correlation of stock and bond returns actually looks more normal.” Listen: https://t.co/mfnaUo1DNT Watch:

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Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.

• What are bond yields "saying" about stocks? by @WSJ's ever-astute Spencer Jakab

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Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.

• Bessent and the Bonds

  Big talk, but he carries a very small stick

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Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.

• Top Links 1220 European bond worries. Iran oil squeeze. The toughest prisoner of them all & guitar Baroque.

  Great links, images, and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• Cat bonds overview... via @MorningstarInc

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Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.

• Top Links 1219 Don’t fight the bond market. Neoclouds, neo-risks. Ethiopia’s drone war & the other Parisian towers.

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires The bull market in wealth The next financial crisis A buying opportunity in bonds? AI is crowding out bonds & construction spending The American Dream is still alive Is college still worth the cost?

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Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and author of The Power of Habit, Smarter Faster Better and Supercommunicators. Writes for The New Yorker.

• Data shows that 80% of laughter has absolutely nothing to do with humor. It's a signal people use to say "I want to bond with you," not a reaction to something being funny. So if you want to instantly connect with anyone you meet: laugh with them. Here's how the Laughter Paradox works:

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• It is indeed nitpicking, and the effect is a net decrease in demand, and a decrease in reserves. But, yes, I should have been more precise. The ECB indeed not selling, it is letting bonds mature and not buying new ones: this leads to a steady decline in ECB bond holdings and in reserves by the ECB. It intends to do so so long as banks do not come back to hold more reserves. The plan is that, when banks come back, this will determine the amount and the size of the balance sheet. Bottom line. The ECB is doing this for reasons which have nothing to do with fiscal policy. And this has nothing to…
  Quoting@itsthemchasers@kebabroyal_ @ojblanchard1 But sales would increase the float in times of higher issuance. His statement is simply wrong.

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Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.

• What is the Bond Market Saying? https://t.co/4U5yklL8mh via @YouTube it is telling the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, to bring inflation down… but the White House has a different (and entirely wrong) theory of the case

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• Does the Fed Have Inflation Under Control? - Power and Consequences Epis... https://t.co/XFIu9fefNJ via @YouTube Don’t expect the Fed to raise short-term rates in September. The bond market on the other hand…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Separate and interesting discussion. True, the ECB (BDF) is slowly reducing its holdings of sovereign bonds, including French bonds (this is called QT, quantitative tightening). By selling those bonds, it decreases their price (not very much, but a bit) and thus increases the interest rate paid by the governments of the euro zone. This indeed makes things a bit harder for the government, who now pay more on their debt. Is the ECB doing this to spite governments, or to induce them to adjust? Emphatically not. It is doing this because it wants to reduce reserves (which is what happens when it s…
  Quoting@StefPalomba@ojblanchard1 1/ la BdF fait partie de l’Etat donc 2/ l’histoire ne tient pas sauf à imaginer que Pierre soit le gouv, 3/ si Paul, dont ce n’est pas le rôle, veut contrer la politique de Pierre, il remet les titres sur le marché, le taux d’intérêt grimpe, 4/ congeler a donc du sens pour Pierre

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Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.

• Top Links 1217 Russian gold through Hong Kong. The birth of repo out of the spirit of the Liberty Bonds. Anger in politics & the failed metrication of the USA.

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Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.

• Economics Links, 9/3/2026

  The WSJ on mortgage defaults; A committee to advise the Fed on inflation; Andreas Steno Larsen on the rickety market for long-term U.S. bonds; Gad Levanon on unemployment among young college grads

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Writer of the 25iq blog, where he distils "a dozen things I've learned" from investors, founders and thinkers. Author of Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor and A Dozen Lessons for Entrepreneurs.

• “Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices.” Warren Buffett "Yields and prices move inversely to one another" said the tooth fairy 🧚 in a prepared statement.

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Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.

• Bessent is giving long end yields the Streisand effect so much right now.
  Quoting@CGasparinoSCOOP: Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent will do whatever it takes to "put the fear of God" into the bond vigilantes, shorting the long end of the curve in an attempt to drive the 10 year yield to 5%, Wall Street executives with direct knowledge of his thinking say. That would include buy backs,…

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Engineering manager who has worked at Apple, Netscape, Slack and Palantir; writes as Rands at randsinrepose.com and wrote Managing Humans.

• BlueskyI am “video game adrift” in my post-Destiny depression. Redid Diablo 4, Saros was fun; thinking about James Bond. Did Arc Raiders. Help.

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• MastodonI am “video game adrift” in my post-Destiny depression. Redid Diablo 4, Saros was fun; thinking about James Bond. Did Arc Raiders. Help.

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Indian value investor who taught Behavioural Finance and Business Valuation as an adjunct professor at MDI Gurgaon. He writes the Fundoo Professor blog about investing, moats and mental models.

• A cheap stock without a catalyst is a value trap plus a prayer for a bull market. (That is chasing beta) https://t.co/0XrAuqYqhz The most common catalysts are earnings growth when combined with very low P/E multiples plus a high dividend yield. Doesn’t happen very often but a setup like this must result in stock price appreciation otherwise the yields start exceeding bond yields which by themselves are catalysts for re-rating. There are many other catalysts based on developments inside the company (corporate actions) or developments in markets (eg increase in free float, inclusion in an index…

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Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.

• What I Got Wrong About Connection

  My new book explores how to build faster, stronger, and longer bonds.

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Writer on the intersection of technology and finance. Author of the Bits about Money newsletter and host of the Complex Systems podcast; previously at Stripe.

• Perpetual futures, explained

  Crypto’s most popular product offers capital efficiency for professionals, leveraged exposure for the masses, rich yields for market makers — and a poorly understood failure mode.

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Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.

• The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds

  Originally published: July 2025 During the past year or so, the Bitcoin ecosystem has largely been led by the rise of corporate bitcoin treasury strategies. Although Strategy (MSTR) pioneered the trend back in 2020, the…

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