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21 September
Writer of Today in Tabs, a daily media-and-internet newsletter started in 2013; earlier founded the community site Kuro5hin.
The @status.news post tomorrow with the 60 Minutes ratings is gonna hit so good Related
20 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
19 September
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
I realize I did not give the link to the full paper on ratings, debt and deficits. Here it is: imf.org
Related
Ratings largely determine spreads. Yet, their construction remains largely a black box. Our paper assesses the relative importance of debt, deficits and country specific effects in the determination of these ratings. The evidence is at odds with a simple model of default: more importance of debt, less importance of forecast deficits, limited role of r-g, surprisingly large role of country effects. We are agnostic. The model may be too simple in some fundamental ways. Or the rating agencies may be using incorrect weights. Or a mix of the two... We hope the paper triggers a useful discussion. Quoting @int_mon_econ Super interesting! "Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration" by Olivier J Blanchard, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. "We look at the effects of debt and primary fiscal balances on sovereign credit ratings through the lens of a simple model. We find that the ratings differ from the implications… Related
18 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Science fiction novelist, journalist and technology activist; writes the daily blog and newsletter Pluralistic, and coined the term enshittification.
I'm going to come right out and say it: statistical extrapolation is *fine*. One of the most useful ways to understand the present and anticipate the future is to measure the things that happened in the past, find the correlations among them, and extrapolate likely future outcomes from those correlations. - If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read/share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog: https://pluralistic.net/2026/09/18/surprise/#wow-signal 1/ Related
17 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
16 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Their words
The usual default math assumes debtors want to pay. But founder-controlled firms with a "you lent us too much" attitude introduce a strategic-default option that standard systems of ratings do not fully capture.
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braddelong.substack.com
14 September
Statistician at Columbia; writes Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and wrote Bayesian Data Analysis.
12 September
Essayist, journalist and independent researcher on Chinese politics, strategy and cultural history; author of the blog The Scholar's Stage.
Its not a quip--it is a statistical fact, and entire books have been written to try and explain it! Quoting @AntoniusTetrax @favelaoverlord …the lawyer's fickleness, deceit, and penchant for rhetoric flourishes? A nice counterpoint here is @Scholars_Stage's quip that the most common educational background for religious extremists is in engineering. Related
11 September
Computer science professor who works on fast data processing; co-author of the simdjson parser and a weekly blogger about software performance since 2004.
The gold standard in the statistical analysis of scientific data is a p-value of 0.05. Never mind what it means. It is the threshold people use to say the result did not occur by chance. There is a wide consensus. Nearly all experts treat it as the bar to statistical significance. I am quite certain that most do not know what it means or where the number comes from. Never mind that. In principle, it means that if you redo the experiment, the result should hold. At least, that's what most people hope when they hear that a result is 'statistically significant'. It often will not. If the origina… Quoting @robinhanson !!: "A finding with a p-value of 0.05 has an expected replication probability ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 across fields." Related
8 September
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
Mathematical biologist; Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath and author of The Maths of Life and Death and How to Expect the Unexpected.
x.com "As National Statistician, Andre will lead the wider UK statistical system, providing advice to the government on statistical matters." What else would you have a national statistician do? gov.uk
government Related
Bluesky "As National Statistician, Andre will lead the wider UK statistical system, providing advice to the government on statistical matters." What else would you have a national statistician do? government Related
7 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
5 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
From one piece
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
2 beliefs · natesilver.net
4 September
Programmer, teacher and speaker; long-time Microsoft developer-community figure, host of the Hanselminutes podcast and author of the hanselman.com blog.
Ever notice AI websites all look the same? Blend every fruit together and you get gray. It is the statistical average website. Your job is to push it away from mediocrity. With Shree Manickaraja on Compile After Class. Related
Interactive fiction author and hacker; wrote Spider and Web and Hadean Lands, and designed the Glulx virtual machine.
Bluesky Following up my speculations about the Hugo "Best Game” finalists, now that the winners are out. Turns out _Clair Obscur_ won handily. Good for the game! Bad if you're looking for finely-sliced statistical commentary. blog.zarfhome.com
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Mastodon Following up my speculations about the Hugo "Best Game” finalists, now that the winners are out. Turns out _Clair Obscur_ won handily. Good for the game! Bad if you're looking for finely-sliced statistical commentary. Also, I promise I will read _Inventing the Renaissance_ now. blog.zarfhome.com
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1 September
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
19 August
Data scientist and machine-learning researcher; chief scientist at bitly, founder of Fast Forward Labs and Hidden Door.
This thread helped me understand that the outrage about Anthropic's watermarking is the confluence of a lack of understanding of how LLMs (or any statistical language model) works and general angst at the current economics. Quoting @hern.bsky.social If you use Claude right now, then it doesn’t pick the “best” word for a sentence. It creates a distribution of possible words, assesses the probability of any given word fitting the slot, and randomly picks between them based on that probability. LLMs Anthropic Related
17 July
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
Their words
the increasing unreasonableness of an electorate that wants all its groceries in one bag and also doesn't want the bag to be heavy is a primary driver behind permanently low approval of politicians in both parties
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joshbarro.com
7 June
Programmer; founded comma.ai and tinygrad, and was the first to unlock the iPhone.
8 May
Geneticist at Harvard; reads ancient DNA to work out how populations moved and mixed, and wrote Who We Are and How We Got Here.
From one piece
David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
It may still be the case, and I guess it is, that immune traits are the most selected category, but is not at all the case, and in fact, we can prove it's not the case that behavioral traits are not selected.
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youtube.com
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And really from a statistical point of view, what happens at these times of migration is there's just huge fluctuations in frequencies, and these are extremely uninformative times for looking and detecting natural selection.
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youtube.com
19 March
Usability pioneer; co-founder of Nielsen Norman Group and founder of UX Tigers; author of the ten usability heuristics and of Jakob's Law.
13 October 2025
Historian of invention; writes Age of Invention on where the Industrial Revolution actually came from.
2 September 2025
Technology analyst whose weekly email on tech reaches over 150,000 readers. Publishes essays and an annual presentation on where the industry is going.
Their words
will the error rate ever be controllable or manageable will you ever get to a model that knows when it's wrong which to me seems like given a stat statistical system seems like a contradiction in terms
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youtube.com
28 August 2025
Mathematician and maker of the 3Blue1Brown YouTube channel, which explains mathematics through animation. Creator of the open-source Manim animation library and founder of the Summer of Math Exposition.
Bluesky Guest video 3/5 while I'm on leave is now up! It's by a former SoME winner, covering key ideas in statistical mechanics to create a simple and discrete model mirroring the behavior of a fluid transitioning between a liquid and gaseous state. Enjoy! youtu.be
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x.com Guest video 3/5 while I'm on leave is now up! It's by a former SoME winner, covering key ideas in statistical mechanics to create a simple and discrete model mirroring the behavior of a fluid transitioning between a liquid and gaseous state. Enjoy! youtu.be
Related
23 August 2025
Mathematician and maker of the 3Blue1Brown YouTube channel, which explains mathematics through animation. Creator of the open-source Manim animation library and founder of the Summer of Math Exposition.
Bluesky Hey, psst, you can find early views for two upcoming guest videos on Patreon, one about statistical mechanics and another covering a story of modern art and group theory. Notes on early releases are always helpful before finalizing a video. patreon.com
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x.com Hey, psst, you can find early views for two upcoming guest videos on Patreon, one about statistical mechanics and another covering a story of modern art and group theory. Notes on early releases are always helpful before finalizing a video. patreon.com
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1 July 2025
Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex, co-director of the Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science, and author of Being You: A New Science of Consciousness.
22 June 2025
Member of technical staff at Anthropic. He has led ML/AI teams at Amazon, Alibaba and Lazada, and writes about LLMs, recommender systems and engineering at eugeneyan.com.
Their words
People find comparing two answers easier than assigning absolute ratings, resulting in greater consistency across annotators.
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eugeneyan.com
28 January 2025
Deep-learning researcher and Turing Award laureate; founder of the Mila institute.
4 June 2024
Professor at Carnegie Mellon working on self-driving-car safety; writes Safe Autonomy on how autonomous vehicles are and are not shown to be safe.
14 February 2024
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
16 July 2023
Professor at Carnegie Mellon working on self-driving-car safety; writes Safe Autonomy on how autonomous vehicles are and are not shown to be safe.
19 July 2022
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
28 October 2020
Founder and CEO of Get Lighthouse, a management-coaching software company, and previously a product lead at KISSmetrics. Writes about leadership, management and product at jasonevanish.com.
Their words
If you're curious how Google built it's culture and the processes thanks to their extremely data & engineering driven nature, this is a great book. What held it back was being ~100 pages too long and Bock didn't always understand where what they did only fit at a $100Bn+, mega-profitable company. Still, the insights on the studies on their 50,000+ employees is well worth the read since so few of us can get similar statistical significance to apply to our teams.
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jasonevanish.com
1 April 2017
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
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