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21 September
Writer of Today in Tabs, a daily media-and-internet newsletter started in 2013; earlier founded the community site Kuro5hin.
The @status.news post tomorrow with the 60 Minutes ratings is gonna hit so good Related
20 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
19 September
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
I realize I did not give the link to the full paper on ratings, debt and deficits. Here it is: imf.org
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Ratings largely determine spreads. Yet, their construction remains largely a black box. Our paper assesses the relative importance of debt, deficits and country specific effects in the determination of these ratings. The evidence is at odds with a simple model of default: more importance of debt, less importance of forecast deficits, limited role of r-g, surprisingly large role of country effects. We are agnostic. The model may be too simple in some fundamental ways. Or the rating agencies may be using incorrect weights. Or a mix of the two... We hope the paper triggers a useful discussion. Quoting @int_mon_econ Super interesting! "Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration" by Olivier J Blanchard, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. "We look at the effects of debt and primary fiscal balances on sovereign credit ratings through the lens of a simple model. We find that the ratings differ from the implications… Related
18 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
16 September
American author of The Obstacle Is the Way, Ego Is the Enemy and Stillness Is the Key. Writes the Reading List book-recommendation email (started 2008) and owns The Painted Porch bookstore in Bastrop, Texas. Hosts The Daily Stoic podcast.
What the Worlds Richest and Most Powerful People Get Wrong With Stephanie Ruhle @SRuhle | Watch the Full Podcast Here Related
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
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The usual default math assumes debtors want to pay. But founder-controlled firms with a "you lent us too much" attitude introduce a strategic-default option that standard systems of ratings do not fully capture.
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braddelong.substack.com
14 September
American author of The Obstacle Is the Way, Ego Is the Enemy and Stillness Is the Key. Writes the Reading List book-recommendation email (started 2008) and owns The Painted Porch bookstore in Bastrop, Texas. Hosts The Daily Stoic podcast.
What the Worlds Richest and Most Powerful People Get Wrong With Stephanie Ruhle @SRuhle | Watch the Full Video Here Related
Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World. Writes By the Numbers, working through energy and climate questions with the numbers in front of them, and revising in public when they say something unexpected.
8 September
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
2 September
CEO of SafeGraph, host of the World of DaaS podcast, and author of the Summation newsletter; previously founded LiveRamp.
Crazy that the richest Brit is only worth $5 billion That is like the average AI founder these days Related
17 July
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
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the increasing unreasonableness of an electorate that wants all its groceries in one bag and also doesn't want the bag to be heavy is a primary driver behind permanently low approval of politicians in both parties
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joshbarro.com
30 June 2025
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
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He offers a unique form of grounding on political, sports and other issues, and a way of bridging my kinds of ideas into mainstream discourse. I almost never regret reading.
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thezvi.substack.com
22 June 2025
Member of technical staff at Anthropic. He has led ML/AI teams at Amazon, Alibaba and Lazada, and writes about LLMs, recommender systems and engineering at eugeneyan.com.
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People find comparing two answers easier than assigning absolute ratings, resulting in greater consistency across annotators.
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eugeneyan.com
5 June 2025
Pen name of the Canadian-American writer behind mrmoneymustache.com, a blog on frugality, early retirement and index-fund investing that has run since 2011.
Oh wow, overnight the world's richest person goes from best buddies with the president to worst enemy! Who is going to buy Teslas now? Related
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