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Dean W. Ball Newsletter
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20 September
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Their words
I predict that, over time, the focus will move away from "papers as the final output."
19 September
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Their words
actually, there are three economic superpowers in the world by this measure. There’s the United States, there’s China, which is clearly number one, and then there’s the EU, which are roughly co-equal.
18 September
17 September
11 September
7 September
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Their words
All those things you can easily measure in isolation, and you can also optimize for them quite locally. But these local optimizations do not produce global optimums, and the fewer of us are looking at the output, the less it matters.
Astra for Coding: Why Are We Doing This Again?lucumr.pocoo.org
31 August
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korrents.com
A school should be judged on how fast its students are learning, not on how much they already know when measured.Their words
And you should measure a school based on the rate of learning and the slope of the line, the growth rate, not its achievement.
26 August
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Their words
What is the underlying hardware capable of doing at its theoretical peak? And then you measure the delta between that theoretical maximum and what you have achieved.
25 August
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Their words
The problem is that "number of recalls" is a terrible metric because we don't know what we don't know.
21 August
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Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
20 August
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Their words
He ruled out all the actual, measurable variables because they were an imperfect explanation, and instead offers a vague, diffuse variable, for which he has no measure, and which is not actually included in his model.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
17 August
12 August
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korrents.com
Team output is still what matters, however hard the industry pushes to measure individual output.Their words
I also believe that, you know, there's been this whole push towards individual output, but teams are still what matter. Teams output.
10 August
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Their words
It's hard to compete with someone who's just there having fun. Fun is velocity. The weeks I enjoyed building, the product got visibly better.
30 July
30 June
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Their words
I think the way that you'd measure conjecture generating ability is going to be more subjective on like that tone shift where um it'll be mathematicians saying they're not just using it to like solve their problems, but as they step back and decide what their research field should even be that a conversation with such and such model like was genuinely helpful for that.
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Their words
a more relevant metric in the long term is the cost, not the efficiency, of food production methods at sustainable levels of energetic and material throughput.
25 June
24 June
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Their words
If you're going so fast, you're not measuring the impact of the changes that you're making, you don't have time to do that cuz you're just focused on shipping and then things regress and things get worse and we've seen that at Anthropic recently the last like month or maybe more than that where things have regressed.
15 June
9 June
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Their words
Look, first of all, if a company's successful, someone will knock on your door and try and give you more money. So, like almost every round is preemptive for successful companies. And when you take that much money, $300 million, the only way to spend it is to take your burn rate up. And I always thought of burn rate as a measure of risk.
3 June
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Their words
And it's the first time I learned the difference between activities and impact. activity is you being an all-star answering a bunch of calls, but the ticket queue for the team is still high.
2 June
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Their words
I believe that one dimension of this sadness or demoralization can be attributed to the simple fact that we are increasingly invited to outsource a class of activities that grant us a measure of satisfaction, accomplishment, and purpose.
28 May
13 May
29 March
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Usesrcmnd.app
PostHogTheir words
Metrics, metrics, metrics. You can't improve what you don't measure.
25 March
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Their words
Worse, you realize that the gazillions of unit, snapshot, and e2e tests you had your clankers write are equally untrustworthy. The only thing that's still a reliable measure of "does this work" is manually testing the product.
13 March
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Their words
and even if you take a generous interpretation of 128 * 8 gig transfers, you're at 128 gigabytes a second for the same shoreline versus 2 and a half terabytes a second. There's a there's an order of magnitude difference in bandwidth per edge area.
4 March
25 January
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Outcome Rating Scale (ORS)Their words
The ORS is a brief, 4-item measure designed to assess areas of life functioning known to change as a result of therapeutic intervention. It takes less than one minute to complete and score.
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Session Rating Scale (SRS)Their words
The SRS is a brief, 4-item measure designed to assess the therapeutic alliance. It provides immediate feedback on the quality of the relationship and allows for course correction in real time.
27 September 2025
21 September 2025
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Their words
used to be let's say in the Google world right I knew you were interested in shopping if you click the shopping tab I know you're interested in maps if you click the maps tab, we can measure clicks. Today, it's just all conversation. And so, it's actually harder for us to tease apart what is the user intent.
18 September 2025
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Their words
I I sent a memo to my company like and we set the expectation that we require that people reflexively reach for AI now and and we require it because it's unfair not to because the people who do otherwise going to be the people who sequester all the best careers to themselves, right?
29 August 2025
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korrents.com
China's stronger local-level state capacity than India's helps explain their diverging long-run economic performance.Their words
On this measure, state capacity at the local level looks much stronger in China than in India, which helps explain some of the long-running economic differences between them.
15 July 2025
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Their words
Thus, TFR as an indicator is cross-culturally biased by social preferences between infanticide and abortion, child neglect and abortion, etc.
There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com
16 June 2025
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korrents.com
How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future.Their words
Extrapolating from the present day into the near future is highly dependent upon how we measure the present day.
14 June 2025
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Their words
But I have faith that we've been doing this for centuries and we've made progress before. There's no reason why we should stop.
5 June 2025
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Their words
But the most important metric, and we carefully measure it is, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI, right? It's tough measure, and we rigorously try to measure it, and our estimates are that number is now at 10%, right?
21 May 2025
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Their words
We live in the era of the symbolic executive, when "being good at stuff" matters far less than the appearance of doing stuff, where "what's useful" is dictated not by outputs or metrics that one can measure but rather the vibes passed between managers and executives that have worked their entire careers to escape the world of work.
20 May 2025
18 April 2025
31 March 2025
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Their words
The short, and very much un-sweet, vision of a tariff-bound economy is that it is stochastic. We can observe it, measure it, analyze it, but we cannot really predict it.
23 March 2025
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Their words
which is number one, you can measure product market fit. Number two, you can optimize product market fit. Number three, you can systematically even numerically increase product market fit. And number four, you can even have an algorithm write your road map for you.
24 January 2025
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Their words
However, without having a good handle on elicitation, we cannot be confident that our control techniques are effective.
Should we control AI instead of aligning it?aligned.substack.com
19 January 2025
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Their words
And to go back to thinking about money, money works because we all believe in it. It's a form of social trust, and it's a form of belief and faith in our society and in the other people in it. And when that breaks down, the money system will break down as well.
25 July 2024
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korrents.com
Games should not be measured against any outside yardstick — not purpose, not pleasure, not politics.Their words
In my approach, I resist using any external value framework as an ultimate set of criteria against which to measure games’ worth - not purpose, not pleasure, not politics.
16 May 2024
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korrents.com
A good life rests on things that demand skill and effort from you, not on goods that arrive requiring none.Their words
A good life is supported by a diverse array of focal things and practices, which tend to reward us with deeper, more meaningful experiences; a gratifying measure of bodily skill and competence; and possibly even a stronger fabric of relationships.
The Stuff of (a Well-Lived) Lifetheconvivialsociety.substack.com
26 March 2024
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Their words
Quality is not luxury. Quality is not expensive. Quality is not that you love it. Quality is just one thing. It meets spec. So, if I look under an electron microscope at any part of a Lexus, which is by any measure the highest quality car there is, uh under an electron microscope, it's filled with defects. But they're not defects that matter because they're defects that are within spec.
2 February 2024
31 January 2024
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Their words
There are two ways to use money. One is as a tool to live a better life. The other is as a yardstick of status to measure yourself against others.
14 December 2023
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Their words
If you think about the good old days, they're mostly an illusion. In almost every way, life is better for almost everyone today than it was say 50 years ago or 100 years ago. We live better lives by and large than our grandparents did, and their grandparents did, and so on. And you can see that in global illiteracy rates, global poverty rates, global infant mortality rates. Almost any metric you choose, we're better off than we used to be.
3 December 2023
From one piece Lisa Randall: Dark Matter, Theoretical Physics, and Extinction Events | Lex Fridman Podcast #403 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I could believe that the Middle East doesn’t exist because I’m not there now. That would be kind of ridiculous, I think we would all agree on that. I think there’s only so much that we can attribute to our own powers of seeing. The whole system doesn’t come into being because I’m measuring it.
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Their words
I do think that we might be in the middle of an extinction right now if you define it by the number of species that are getting killed off. It’s subtle, but it’s a complex system.
9 November 2023
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Their words
So really the question is like for every Hamas member that you kill, how many did you create? And if you create more than you killed, you’ve not succeeded. That’s the real situation there.
16 October 2023
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Their words
We believe technology is a lever on the world – the way to make more with less. Economists measure technological progress as productivity growth: How much more we can produce each year with fewer inputs, fewer raw materials. Productivity growth, powered by technology, is the main driver of economic growth, wage growth, and the creation of new industries and new jobs, as people and capital are continuously freed to do more important, valuable things than in the past.
13 September 2023
22 July 2023
22 November 2021
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Extra LifeTheir words
Steven Johnson, Extra Life – Johnson explores the astonishing expansion in life expectancy over the last two hundred years, and asks how we measure it and who – and what – deserves the credit. Wide ranging and a pleasure to read.
25 October 2021
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korrents.com
What air travellers actually value is door-to-door time, and public policy tends not to measure it.Their words
Reduction in door-to-door travel time is king. Public policy may not keep this in mind.
1 January 2020
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korrents.com
Process knowledge — the experience of actually making things — matters more than tools or blueprints.Their words
I believe that the hard-to-measure process knowledge is more important than the more easily observable tools and IP.
5 November 2019
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Their words
We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.
23 April 2017
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