-
korrents.com
Most people who complete a PhD today will not land a tenure-track or tenured position, and the odds keep shrinking.Their words
If you hold a PhD today, your chance of having a tenure-track or tenured position is about 10% and falling.
Related posts
Ava Huang Newsletter
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
Top people
Showing Profile →
Hiding
Hiding
20 September
19 September
17 September
-
Their words
I don’t know what odds I’d give, but I’m probably bullish on the odds of substantive regulation passing relative to the conventional wisdom.
15 September
14 September
10 September
9 September
5 September
4 September
1 September
-
Lovedrcmnd.app
Accuphase E-3000Their words
Accuphase is WORLD CLASS and fully end game for any sane music lover. It will cost you but it ends the itch for better.
31 August
-
korrents.com
AI systems are not sentient, and the odds of them being sentient are vanishingly small.Their words
I am very much opposed to the view that the AIs are sentient, or might be sentient. I view that as a category error , and the chances of it being true are vanishingly small.
28 August
-
Their words
But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).
26 August
-
Their words
everybody on your team who is making architectural decisions, those people must know performance and they must make decisions that will allow the other people downstream of them to use an architecture which can be optimized later. If you don't do that, you're just rolling the dice.
15 August
-
Their words
The alternative way that you can reduce risk is actually just reducing consequence, right? And we would argue that that's a much better way to reduce risk. Odds uh are stochastic, right? Even if you do an enormous amount of risk reduction on odds and you do all this engineering, something's still going to happen, right? like just something's going to come out of left field and you can't predict everything.
14 August
-
Their words
there's so many people that are not willing to fight for the best idea because they're going to upset somebody else. And if you don't fight for the best idea, then what idea are you fighting for? You're fighting for the mediocre idea, the politically expedient idea
7 August
-
korrents.com
Once a technological arms race begins, escalation can be hard to stop even if it leaves everyone worse off.Their words
Once an arms race has begun, strategic uncertainty means that it may be difficult to prevent escalation, even if it ends up making everyone worse off.
6 August
-
Their words
But this concentration weakens a team, because you end up with too much of certain qualities, and not enough of others.
3 August
2 August
-
korrents.com
Needing fewer people per unit of output does not mean a company ends up employing fewer people.Their words
if you are using these systems right you can just grow more quickly you can build more things you can take on more stuff so you know I would be surprised actually if we ended up with like net fewer
25 July
21 July
-
Their words
Take Eroom’s Law: the number of new drugs approved per dollar of R&D has fallen for decades, even as our scientific tools have grown vastly more powerful, the exact opposite of what the existence of more raw capability would predict.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
19 July
-
Their words
It was instead a very strongly held opinion that that you get to excellence by giving people a lot of agency and accountability. By pushing decisions as deep in the organization as possible, hiring great people who can be trusted to have good judgment and make good decisions.
12 July
-
korrents.com
An organization that demands trust ends up with less of it than one that shows its work instead.Their words
Paradoxically, the organization that demands trust can get less of it, while the organization that shows their work - thereby not asking for trust - builds up more of it.
5 July
16 June
-
Their words
And then you look at the actual trial records, and maybe one in a hundred convictions for that crime actually ends in a capital sentence. And almost all of the other ones end in a fine or a public flogging, but not in the sentence that's on the books.
7 June
-
korrents.com
Making your customers unhealthy is a short-term gain that ends with having no customers.Their words
Sure, you could have a short-term gain in your customers, but if you make your customers unhealthy, you're not going to have customers.
6 June
4 June
-
Their words
Then the person who doesn't satiate in capital is going to have if they're being rational they're going to have a higher savings rate.
-
Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
2 June
From one piece FarmVille Creator: The Hidden Path to Successful Products 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
know your goal or suffer a death by a thousand compromises. Because what I had done my whole career and most of us do is compromise to get that next engineer, CTO, investor. You put a jerk on your board because you impressed with their firm name and the valuation and all your friends are going to be impressed and it's going to be so much easier. We make all these compromises and contort ourselves and eventually we wake up and it's company we don't want to work at.
-
Their words
The way I think of the abyss is it's this place that we go to as founders and entrepreneurs after our thing, after it dies or it's bought or it's over for whatever reason. It's this amorphous place that we are in our life that has no structure.
1 June
-
Their words
If AI-driven labor displacement ends up being large in magnitude and permanently drives down the demand for labor, it will likely be necessary to go beyond mere incentive programs to long-term income support for a significant fraction of the labor force.
21 May
8 May
-
Their words
my sense is that these complex traits have not pushed in one direction because there's advantage there's spectrums where there's advantages to both ends of the spectrum
30 April
-
korrents.com
Data centres will become the majority driver of electricity demand growth in Australia's National Electricity Market.Their words
Even if a small fraction of this pipeline ends up operational, data centres will drive far more than 50% of demand growth in the NEM.
7 April
4 February
1 January
-
Their words
And so what ends up happening is the emails that the AI write are pretty good. Okay? If you're getting terrible emails, it's a poorly trained product from a bad vendor.
15 December 2025
-
Their words
I just don't know where this is going. I don't know what the end is. When I don't know what the end is, I don't know what the beginning is. And it's that simple.
16 October 2025
-
Their words
PMs are no longer saying to the designer, hey, can you draw this thing out for me? That frees up designer time to go explore more deeply the stuff they need to go into and it allows anyone to kind of add to that first conversation of where should we go and look further and wider and broader at the option space.
15 August 2025
-
Their words
You you also don't know like in order to make that money back, you have to then operate that plant at that capacity for 20 years, right? And if I was looking at the same charts as they're looking at right now, I'd say what are the odds that in 25 years time we can produce gas turbines at a price that is relevant in a world where solar is already at its current price and batteries at a price where they're already like you cannot win.
30 July 2025
-
Their words, before
This means that working on neural networks is NOT getting us closer to AGI, except indirectly.
Their words now
It’s become very difficult for me to maintain the belief in the stupidity of ChatGPT when every time I laugh at it, it ends up ridiculing me 6 months later.
14 June 2025
-
Their words
I can tell you with complete certainty the twin prime conjecture is true. The random model gives overwhelming odds it is true, I just can't prove it.
3 June 2025
14 May 2025
Nothing matches.
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.