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Phil Hagelberg Site
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19 September
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Their words
RSI is poised to make modern LLMs vastly cheaper. Trends that have shown LLMs get exponentially cheaper at a given intelligence are likely to accelerate.
17 September
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Their words
But I think this impulse to gild the lily and attribute the rise of Hitler to deep intellectual trends is an example of a pretty common fallacy of assuming that an incredibly important world event must have incredibly important roots.
16 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.Their words
Publishers want to have people believe they know exactly how and when things will shake out, but you just never know.
Processing: How Nicholas Russell Wrote Observercountercraft.substack.com
14 September
11 September
10 September
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korrents.com
The simplest explanation for rising long-term interest rates is a surge in demand for funds from the AI boom.Their words
The simplest story consistent with the facts is that we’re seeing a surge in demand for funds as a result of the AI boom.
9 September
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korrents.com
PC boot and BIOS keys are inconsistently assigned across the F-key range, Delete, and Escape.Their words
I really want to fix consistent boot and bios keys for PCs!!! How did we end up using the entire F-key range AND delete AND escape across the range? THIS IS MADNESS.
7 September
From one piece The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held 2 beliefs · levels.io
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Their words
The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!
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korrents.com
Changing your mind in light of new facts should be celebrated rather than held against you.Their words
The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!
4 September
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korrents.com
AI labs tend to downplay safety risks in their public rhetoric even while acting responsibly in practice.Their words
There is a consistent pattern at the top labs, where they downplay the risks rhetorically even when they are doing the right thing in practice.
Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1: The System Cardthezvi.substack.com
25 August
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Their words
The problem is that "number of recalls" is a terrible metric because we don't know what we don't know.
21 August
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Their words
Frontier Labs are incented to be fearful as it provides a moral justification for staying closed. Chinese Labs take the consistent position of doing what’s good for all and being open. So the little guys find themselves in the uncomfortable position of rooting for the Chinese…
20 August
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Their words
The demand for explanations of low fertility is entirely a demand for variables which will reduce these technical trends to near zero.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
12 August
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korrents.com
Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends.Their words
See, the problem is that neither side is making it up. Like they are seeing really scary trends.
9 August
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korrents.com
Consistent roast color in sample roasting is essential for making fair, informed green-coffee buying decisions.Their words
Roast quality and color can have a big impact on perceived cup score and buying decisions, so if you are serious about choosing the right green for your company, it is a good idea to do your own sample roasting, using a system that yields your preferred roast level consistently.
30 July
22 July
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korrents.com
The US warming trend since 1970 is consistent across raw, adjusted, satellite, and surface temperature datasetsTheir words
The overall US warming trend (around 0.5F per decade since 1970 in max, min, and mean temperatures) is robust in every dataset, raw or adjusted, satellite or surface.
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Their words
The two seemingly contradictory trends connect, because the relatively low rate of productive investment leaves European industry vulnerable to its most vigorous competitors whose firms are contending with an even more deflationary macroeconomic situation at home in China.
20 July
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Their words
Sure, language classes can provide social benefits and feedback. But the real means of learning a language is consistent, ample amounts of listening and reading.
14 July
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Readaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
How NOT to InvestTheir words
Ritholtz does exactly that, running through such surefire ways to wreck your wealth as ignoring taxes, paying excessive fees, misinterpreting data, overreacting to short-term trends, and trading too much.
2 July
15 June
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Lovedrcmnd.app
NuPhy Halo IO Series 96 KeyboardTheir words
I decided to give NuPhy keyboards a try, and I'm glad I did. This keyboard has become my favorite one to use.
11 June
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Their words
Useful philosophies disagree with each other sometimes, and this is only an issue if you expect yourself, or reality, to be philosophically consistent.
9 June
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korrents.com
Atmospheric CO2 concentration is a lagging indicator of emissions trends, not a leading one.Their words
Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.
4 June
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korrents.com
Younger generations are rejecting AI hype while older generations, who stand to benefit from it, remain optimisticTheir words
there's a consistent theme where Gen Z (and millennials, to some extent) are rejecting the AI hype while older generations are optimistic and coincidentally in a position to benefit from it.
2 June
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korrents.com
Keyboard buyers increasingly expect switches and keyboards to sound good, not just feel good.Their words
This is something more and more keyboard companies look into, and customers except good sounding keyboards.
29 May
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Likedrcmnd.app
Keychron K7Their words
Keyboard: Keychron K7. I've tried the weird keyboards but I still type fastest on the Mac layout. This is one of the few keyboards that's almost exactly the Mac layout - the "Command" key is in the right place.
25 April
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Their words
As the software industry is largely driven by trends and fashion, React's "cool factor" led to a mass amnesia regarding how to make normal, well-designed web apps made of HTML with a sprinkling of scripting on top and everything became one big tangled, brittle mass of Javascript that completely keeled over when scripting wasn't available.
19 March
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Their words
one of the magic tricks about these things is that they they're incredibly consistent. If you've got a code base with a bunch of patterns in, they will follow those patterns almost to a T.
10 March
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Likedrcmnd.app
TailwindCSSTheir words
TailwindCSS - A great way to keep my styling consistent and stay productive.
3 March
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Their words
These days, though, native is as bad as the web, if not worse.
18 February
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Their words
Extrapolators have a remarkable track record in the AI field, being repeatedly early to trends and capabilities that empiricists believed were still decades away.
13 February
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Their words
it's it's kind of purely a practical and empirical thing that we've observed that by teaching the model principles, getting it to learn from principles, its behavior is more consistent, it's easier to cover edge cases, and the model is more likely to do what people want it to do.
9 December 2025
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Their words
There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.
1 December 2025
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Their words
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
23 November 2025
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korrents.com
A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.Their words
Both of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
11 November 2025
21 September 2025
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Their words
It's easier to even predict whether growth will slow down at a certain point. it's easier to catch these trends earlier. If you don't have good observability over how your business runs and what the company's um key levers are, then you will be scrambling.
30 June 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
In My TribeTheir words
There is something highly refreshing about the way Kling offers his own consistent old school economic libertarian perspective, takes his time responding to anything, and generally tries to understand everything including developments in AI from that perspective.
22 June 2025
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korrents.com
People find pairwise comparisons of answers easier and more consistent to judge than absolute ratingsTheir words
People find comparing two answers easier than assigning absolute ratings, resulting in greater consistency across annotators.
16 June 2025
15 June 2025
10 June 2025
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Their words
Consistent with the Kantian hypothesis, reasoning models automatically gain greater autonomy, self-consistency and long-horizon planning ability for free.
1 March 2025
2 February 2025
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korrents.com
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.Their words
GPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.
16 June 2024
13 June 2024
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Their words
So my interpretation of reality is if you fold it up, all that bifurcation of many worlds, and you just fold it into the structure that is you, and you just said you are all of those many worlds and your history converged on you, but you’re actually an object exists that was selected to exist, and you’re self-consistent with the other structures. So the quantum mechanical reality is not the one that you live in. It’s this very deterministic, classical world, and you’re carving a path through that space. But I don’t think that you’re constantly branching into new spaces. I think you are that space.
2 January 2024
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korrents.com
The long decline in mortality is not guaranteed to continue: new shocks and old unsolved diseases can reverse it.Their words
None of these trends are a given.
23 December 2023
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Their words
Such prolificacy is unlikely to be repeated any time soon; if current trends hold, a drug discovery scientist starting their career today is likely to retire without ever having worked on a single drug that makes it to market.
11 October 2023
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Their words
Per doubling of production, costs have fallen a consistent 30-40% since 1970, but it’s only in the last few years that this price has become competitive with legacy electricity generation
17 February 2023
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Their words
There were a bunch of bad trends: Tribalism was flaring up everywhere, mass shaming campaigns were roaring back into fashion, politicians were increasingly clown-like, public discourse had become a battle of one-dimensional narratives.
29 December 2022
13 December 2022
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Their words
All we can say from these big trends is that we have no idea whether peer review helped, it might have hurt, it cost a ton, and the current state of the scientific literature is pretty abysmal.
28 May 2022
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Likedrcmnd.app
OrbStackTheir words
A better alternative to Docker. Used for running and isolating local development services. Makes it easier to set up consistent environments across various projects.
24 May 2022
11 May 2022
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Their words
In general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros.
7 March 2022
From one piece Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change (with 1 co-authors) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
2 February 2022
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Their words
Combining these three pillars yields a number of unusual, even uncomfortable views about ethics. I feel this discomfort and don't unreservedly endorse this approach to ethics.
10 November 2021
7 June 2021
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
Mac OSTheir words
I have a lot of feelings about macOS: it is astonishingly painful for developers, but makes up for it with a consistent experience for users.
20 January 2021
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Their words
Software is far more consistent than any other kind of engineering.
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The MeshTheir words
If you're interested in understanding the collaborative consumption movement (ie- car sharing, AirBnb, city bike sharing, etc), this book gives a great overview of the trends and opportunities.
17 July 2019
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Dracula themeTheir words
Both my editor and IDE is rocking Dracula theme. It’s a great dark theme and gives me a consistent environment across my devices and setups.
10 April 2018
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Likedrcmnd.app
Emfit QS+ActiveTheir words
I've found the only thing I'm consistent with are in the set-it-and-forget-it category, and I really like the Emfit QS+Active
12 April 2016
1 January 2016
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Readrcmnd.app
The InevitableTheir words
Podcast (Part 2). A story about how the world will change in the next few decades. The nature of technology available today makes certain trends almost inevitable. Even though the exact future is unknowable, we can still extrapolate from high-level trends to make some good predictions about the future.
9 July 2015
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Likedrcmnd.app
Mac miniTheir words
I really like Mac Minis for installations, especially since once we've got the headsets running we can unplug all external keyboards and projectors and everything, and it'll run as a self-contained unit for days on end (or until Apple decides it must interrupt with a request to update).
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Usesrcmnd.app
Kinesis contoured keyboardTheir words
For keyboards, most of my typing is done on the MacBook keyboard using just my inner fingers, sometimes a Kinesis contoured keyboard (the weird scoopy one) if my outer fingers aren't being the problem at the moment, and sometimes other keyboards.
17 September 2013
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Usesrcmnd.app
Macally icekeyTheir words
For that, I have a scissor-action Macally icekey that's no longer sold. I've worn out two previous Matias keyboards through an incredible amount of use.
6 June 2013
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Usesrcmnd.app
iMacTheir words
Mostly Macs at this point. I have a 27-inch iMac at work (big screen) but with the tiny wireless keyboard; I long ago got tired of keyboards that, with wheels, could double as skateboards, so it's nice to have a little one made by a reliable manufacturer.
30 October 2012
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Usesrcmnd.app
Dell Mini 9Their words
I do everything on a netbook, a Dell Mini 9. I've been using it since 2008, and have worn out two keyboards.
1 February 2012
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Kindle 4Their words
The best Kindle they have made is the Kindle 4 (also known as the cheap kindle). After using the Aztec Kindle, the various Kindles with keyboards and finally the Kindle touch - I find that I am able to be a happier and more efficient reader with the cheaper kindle.
22 January 2011
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Matias Tactile ProTheir words
They've also got Matias TactilePro keyboards. Because if your typing doesn't sound like a hailstorm on a tin roof, you're not typing.
2 November 2010
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Lovedrcmnd.app
IBM Model MTheir words
On the workstation, I use a dorky Logitech keyboard, but I'm absolutely obsessed with the old IBM Model M keyboards. Those things can withstand small arms fire, and I love the tactile response of the buckling springs.
12 October 2009
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
KB CoverTheir words
Also, I tend to keep my keyboards covered with a KB Cover. It's rubbery and looks pretty attractive, but it does slow you down a little until you've become accustomed to it.
1 October 1975
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