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18 September
Writer of the 25iq blog, where he distils "a dozen things I've learned" from investors, founders and thinkers. Author of Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor and A Dozen Lessons for Entrepreneurs.
As opposed to before when analyst models were able to predict prices: "JPMorgan Analysts Unsure How to Model Oil as Iran War Drags On" Complexity, Knightian Uncertainty, Ignorance, oh my! Seattle-area auto regular gasoline = $5.65/gal on Sept. 14. Marine gas is ~$1–$2+ more per gallon. bloomberg.com
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15 September
Writer on habits and decision-making; author of Atomic Habits and the 3-2-1 newsletter, and publisher of long-running book recommendation lists.
The loser has more in common with the winner than with the person sitting on the sidelines. The winner and the loser each had the courage to try. Both risked embarrassment. Both were willing to face uncertainty. Both were stubborn enough to continue. Success is endurance in disguise. It belongs to the person who can absorb the losses without absorbing the identity of "loser." It's the courage to start — and to stick with it — that is the real separator. Results tend to find the person who stays in the game. The sidelines are safe, but sterile. Nothing grows there. Related
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
25 August
Swedish programmer with degrees in engineering and psychology, author of Your Code as a Crime Scene and founder of CodeScene.
A question like ”do we still need to read AI generated code” is pointless in isolation. The answer depends on the task, and more specifically on the uncertainty inherent in each type of task. 🧵 Related
14 August
Author of The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans, and host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast.
12 August
Author of The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans, and host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast.
Professor at Stanford working on robot learning and meta-learning; co-founded Physical Intelligence.
Their words
But I think the PhD is an incredible opportunity to first learn a lot about how to handle uncertainty, how to pick good problems to work on.
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youtube.com
7 August
Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.
15 July
Writer and teacher on productivity and personal knowledge management. Author of Building a Second Brain and founder of Forte Labs, which runs the course of the same name.
Their words
When uncertainty rises, your horizon should become shorter-term.
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fortelabs.com
14 July
Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.
Their words
It might have worked even better as two separate books, rather than as one short book trying to do two things. But Booth's writing is soothing, and his overall message — investing is simply a bet on human innovation and progress — is a truism worth repeating. Young people, in particular, might benefit from reading it.
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jasonzweig.com
30 June
Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money, Same As Ever and The Art of Spending Money. Writes essays on investor behavior and posts frequently on X.
The History of Uncertainty, The Magic of The Long Term, And Overstating New Technology YT: https://t.co/DxhUDZ7sYh Spotify: open.spotify.com
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25 June
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
I am beside myself with joy that The Art of Uncertainty is out in paperback today! Fits in any (largish) pocket, easy to read on the train or while jammed into a steaming underground carriage. The perfect present for the nerd in your life. amazon.co.uk
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24 April
Writes Strange Loop Canon, on the intersection of technology, economics and business — "building models of the world to understand these problem areas and to define them better".
13 February
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
Their words
My one little bit, the one little bit of of fundamental uncertainty even on long time scales is this thing about tasks that aren't verifiable. Like, planning a mission to Mars, like, uh you know, doing some fundamental scientific discovery like like CRISPR, like, you know, writing a writing a novel. Hard to hard to verify those tasks.
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youtube.com
7 January
Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.
Their words
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
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bringthedonuts.com
3 November 2025
Game designer; wrote A Theory of Fun for Game Design and worked on Ultima Online and Star Wars Galaxies.
9 June 2025
Release engineering manager at the Wikimedia Foundation. Keeps a public log at tylercipriani.com of every book he reads, with a rating and notes.
Tariff uncertainty led me to purchase a keyboard shaped like a butterfly. This is what is known as the butterfly effect. Related
12 May 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
21 April 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
6 April 2025
Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.
Their words
The tariffs have frozen business activity because no one wants to take a big risk dependent on a policy that may change next week.
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molsonhart.com
2 April 2025
Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.
The Power of Not Knowing Embracing uncertainty by confronting our inner stories - “I don’t know.” When were you last willing to say that in front of your team? How does it make you feel to even consider saying that? For most leaders, saying, “I…
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31 March 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
Tariff Stochasticity Examining how unpredictable tariff policies create chaos for energy companies, from confused utility regulators to Federal Reserve uncertainty reports hitting 55-year highs. The stochastic nature of tariffs clashes with…
energy interest rates Related
22 March 2025
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
https://t.co/pKtQD7mLtq Fun but challenging to compress a whole book (The Art of Uncertainty) into a 10-minute talk. Hope I got some main points over Related
21 March 2025
Writer and former McKinsey/BCG strategy consultant; author of The Pathless Path and Good Work, about leaving the default career track. Publishes the Boundless newsletter and podcast.
Their words
A series of autobiographical essays exploring wandering, uncertainty, memory, desire, and place—embracing the unknown as a gateway to self-transcendence.
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pathlesspath.com
25 May 2024
Neuroscientist at UC Davis; studies memory and wrote Why We Remember.
Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
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youtube.com
17 April 2024
Engineer and writer on machine-learning systems; author of Designing Machine Learning Systems and AI Engineering. "I work to bring AI into production. I write about AI system design."
17 January 2023
Co-founded Neuralink and founded Science Corp, which is building a retinal implant; writes about neural interfaces and biology.
What is Heisenberg uncertainty, anyway? Like relativity, uncertainty is a deeply beautiful topic that is widely misunderstood. Many people are familiar with the idea that you cannot simultaneously know, for example, a particle’s position and momentum to perfe…
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1 July 2022
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
23 March 2020
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
16 September 2019
Mathematical biologist; Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath and author of The Maths of Life and Death and How to Expect the Unexpected.
Their words
The thing I'd say about Do Dice Play God? is that it is very rewarding, but you do have to invest in it.
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fivebooks.com
19 July 2019
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
1 May 2019
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
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