My general view on a partner with a challenging quality is that to make peace with it, two things need to be true: 1. They have enough wonderful qualities you value to compensate for it, and 2. They don't make you feel alone or lonely in dealing with the runoff of said challenging quality.
especially in the "Dalio Market Principles Online" course I built with great partners at Singapore's Wealth Management Institute (WMI). The course has been completed by thousands of online learners around the world and has gotten great reviews. If you’re interested in joining its next cohort which is starting soon, you can learn more here.
Because solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.
An analysis by the AI Security Institute found that the capabilities of frontier models (i.e., from OpenAI and Anthropic) are roughly doubling every few months, and this doubling rate has actually gotten faster over time.
One of the things I found most exciting in the last couple of years was seeing as model qualities gotten better and and harnesses and tools have gotten better, how many people um that were directors or VPs or SVPs or any of these levels were actually rolling up their sleeves and trying things out.
I think there is there is um no place where you can work on bigger problems than the US government. Even at the the biggest tech companies in the world, you're never going to be dealing with problems of this of this scale.
The The point just being this is so not an exact science. And I always like to show either what a client asks for or what a programmer might have used as a placeholder because I've gotten so many good ideas that way.
buuuut my roadmap is’nt ten times shorter. and I’m definitely not ten times better at deciding what is worth building. teams haven’t started casually shipping a year of product work every month. you can look around and and it’s hard to say what software has gotten meaningfully better in the last year.
Auto instrumentation has gotten so good in recent years. If you're using Open Telemetry and everyone should be using Open Telemetry. All of the common patterns like all of the models are trained on them. So, it is literally faster and easier to build with instrumentation than to than not to.
when the machine says I'm sorry you're so sick today it's very different from how your friend says it to you because the machine said that because it has learned through pattern when someone tells it I'm sick you should say I'm sorry you're sick instead of I'm so glad you're sick because that data exists.
in Silicon Valley, there's a common mantra to move fast and break things. However, when you're dealing with atoms instead of bits, breaking things is not really okay. So, the thing you have to do is to move fast and ship safely.
absolutely agree that product skills are probably the most durable. My build would just be there's a lot of people who have the title PM who haven't spent a lot of time building those skills in the last 5 years, but have gotten really good at communicating frameworks to leadership.
We we kind of have to live in the future 5 to 10 years because it takes three or so years just to build a system, takes a couple years to ramp it up, and you're dealing and you would like them to be able to use the computer for 10 years after.
we've gotten to a point now where it's generally accepted that potentially half of cases of dementia are preventable and I think the majority of that falls into those first two buckets Alzheimer's and vascular dementia
There are things that we naturally take pleasure in—such as friendship, sex, and Italian food—and while we can become sick of anything if continually exposed to it in large doses, we don’t get tired of these things if they are properly distributed in time.
Another part of my recent office upgrade was the Sanodesk 72x30 Standing Desk. Overall, I love this desk so far. The bamboo top looks and feels great, and I have plenty of room on the desk to set it up how I want to. Being able to raise it to a standing position is also nice too when I get sick of sitting.
it almost gives a new founder an advantage over a multi-time successful founder because we have too much rope to hang ourselves. It's too easy to raise money and recruit teams against a big vision before we've gotten to product market fit.
But the coding models have gotten good enough that he can pair the kind of the technical knowledge he does have with his really spiky product sense and sense for writing and sense for users.
Scalability is just like what mechanisms we have for dealing with changes in load. If load increases, how can we add computing capacity to a system, for example, so that the system still continues working?
Many of the indicators I use to track unfolding events are explained in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. I especially recommend Chapter 6, “The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder,” and, if you are interested in the unimaginable-in-peacetime investment-related developments that typically happen during wars, I recommend Chapter 7, “Investing in Light of the Big Cycle.”
Whenever humans experience situations where we are closer to our animal selves than usual (needing to use the bathroom, having periods, giving birth, raising a baby, being sick), we usually behave as animals do: instinctively, urgently, and impolitely.
And I've gotten to a certain point and I thought it was like fairly well tuned and then I let auto research go for like overnight and it came back with like tunings that I didn't see.
the dorman was doing multiple things, many of which were human and kind of tacit. Security would be one. You know, there are no vagrants to sleep in the doorway, hailing taxis, dealing with luggage, recognizing regular guests, providing status to the hotel. There are loads and loads of value creation components to that dorman which aren't captured in the open the door definition.
It isn't easy dealing with peer pressure and a room of warm and friendly staff begging you say something, anything nice about their terrible product for fear of losing their jobs -- and realizing you must be brutal to their faces otherwise you're not helping the vendor or your own company.
You can shortcut like hard feelings because now you can just watch TikTok instead of actually dealing with the very difficult emotion or tension that you had with a colleague or with your partner or with your children.
So when you make something like chat GPT, you can go from to zero to 100 million users faster than any technology in history because of the other technologies though. like you couldn't have gotten there if not for the build out of the internet, if not for the smartphone.
I almost feel the term doesn't matter, what I know is by 2030 there'll be such dramatic progress. We'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030. So that I strongly feel.
So when you’re talking about Operation Barbarossa, to go back to your original question, Lex, you’re dealing with an operation on such a vast scale, that that operational level of war is absolutely vital to its chances of success or failure. It doesn’t matter how good your individual commanders are at the front. If you haven’t got the backup, it’s not going to work.
"It’s honest in how it covers topics like navigating tricky power dynamics with CEOs, surviving 'peer panic,' dealing with competition within leadership teams, and in its overall breadth and depth."
But then we have the interesting case of in the Postclassic, they shed the idea of kings. They don’t like kings anymore. That’s probably a big part of why the Classic disappearance and the abandonment of all those cities happened. People just got sick of kings.
It's perfectly balanced right on the edge of too much—Incarnate is powerful and lush but you somehow never get sick of it. At once excessive and refined.
I stand in awe of what author Jackie Cummings Koski has done here. This is a comprehensive overview of what FIRE is and how it is done, fashioned in the famous "for dummies" template. I wouldn't have known how to even begin to pull this together, let alone gotten it over the finish line in such fine form.
One of the hardest things about debugging is running a program backward: there's a data structure with a bad value, or the control flow has zigged instead of zagged, and it's very difficult to understand how it could have gotten into that state.
So Tesla hasn’t found a different, better way to bring driverless technology to market. Waymo is just so far ahead that it’s dealing with challenges Tesla hasn’t started thinking about.
Criticism is what happens when someone with domain knowledge who is not trying to earn status by hurting you is able to help you see the world as it is. And those three pieces are the key, right? Because most of the criticism I've gotten in my life has come from people who felt like they would feel better if I felt worse.
One of the mistakes is that they just frame it wrong from the beginning. They'll say, "Okay, we should do a pre-mortem. So, what can go wrong?" It's not an issue of what can go wrong. We're dealing with a crystal ball that has showed that the plan has failed. We know that it failed. And our job is is to explain why. So, saying what can go wrong is too tentative. It's too vague.
But Instagram has gotten pretty good at it and now I own a gravity blanket , a moon pod , stretchy jeans , a great hoodie , and like 19 fidget toys and physics toys and other stupid things that make me happy .
But Instagram has gotten pretty good at it and now I own a gravity blanket , a moon pod , stretchy jeans , a great hoodie , and like 19 fidget toys and physics toys and other stupid things that make me happy .
Not only are the traditional staples of classic value investing (readily discernable quantitative measures of cheapness in the here-and-now) no longer likely to produce a sustainable edge on their own, but the world has gotten more complex, with many more dynamics that can drive a decoupling of near-term metrics from valuation, both to the positive and negative.
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