We could not possibly know that such a model is aligned. If that is all it takes to get a generation ahead of Astra, and we are willing to move this fast, these pauses in training are not going to end up meaning very much, time is even shorter than we knew
You know what actually motivates founders day-to-day? The fear of failure. Even though they're doing this thing that if they succeed they'll be super rich. Um that does motivate them but the thing that motivates them at the at any given moment is the fear of like disaster or looking like a fool, the server crashing, right?
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
given the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
So to me like what what I tend to think about a lot in terms of timelines is not the date when it will be done but the date when it will when like the flywheel starts basically.
Yeah, these are great work that shows what's possible. The approach doesn't scale currently. Three days of Google's server time can solve one high school math format there. This is not a scalable prospect, especially with the exponential increase as the complexity increases.
And I’ve said for a long time that you think of a quadrant of slow timelines for the start of AGI, long timelines, and then a short takeoff or a fast takeoff. I think short timeline, slow takeoff is the safest quadrant and the one I’d most like us to be in. But I do want to make sure we get that slow takeoff.
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