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19 September
17 September
8 September
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Their words
Just knowing that there is an unpublished solution to a problem might trigger millions of dollars in LLM spending to get there first.
On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problemsimonwillison.net
28 August
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
26 August
24 August
12 August
7 August
From one piece Max Hodak: Average Is Not Good Enough 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And so if nobody knows how much an experiment costs, like every time you like grow up a new cell line or every time we make a new a new probe in in the fab, how much does that loop cost? Nobody knows. Therefore, experiments are free. Um, it doesn't cost dollars. It costs media. And media comes from the fridge.
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Their words
there are definitely some ideas that are worth funding with $50 million or zero dollars, but not $5 million. Um you won't run the experiment. It'll be really frustrating experience. You'll get an ambiguous outcome.
31 July
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Their words
Um, but actually the median business, uh, is doing better this year than a year ago. Um, and so and then if we kind of, um, stratify and look at the probability that any given business will reach some revenue threshold, a million dollars, five million dollars, 10 million dollars, whatever, um, those all seem to be getting better.
15 July
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Their words
Privately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
30 June
29 June
18 June
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Their words
And usually I like the customer is hyper scale. They have the scale. If they like what you have, they're willing to pay millions of dollars next few years. And even giving some warrant is worth it because you have a big one customer, you can scale.
1 June
29 May
27 May
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Their words
If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
8 May
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korrents.com
Starship will bring the price of low Earth orbit down to roughly a hundred dollars a kilogram.Their words
Starship promises a near future with launch costs to LEO of perhaps $100/kg.
27 April
19 April
7 April
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Their words
if a million dollars had been at stake, like would you have put the same effort in? And the answer is no. Um sort of invariably. Um like they've tried, but they haven't really tried.
23 March
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Their words
You know, the idea that somebody's willing to pay $1000 per million tokens is just around the corner. It's not if, it's only when.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Um in general the semiconductor supply chain has not right it's lived through the booms and bust and uh we can talk a bit more about it but basically no one you know some players as of very recently have like woken up but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gawatts a year of AI chips or you know trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain.
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Their words
oh 50 gigawatts of economic you know sort of capex in in the data center and what gets built on top of that in terms of tokens is even larger right it might be hundred billion dollars worth of AI value into the supply chain is held up by this $1.2 two billion dollars worth of tooling that simply just cannot expand its supply chain quickly.
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And if my if my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on Earth. There's there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I if I buy that much compute.
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Their words
I think the trillions of dollars a year market, maybe all of the national security implications and the safety implications that I wrote about in adolescence of technology can happen without it, but I I I also think we, and I imagine others, are working on it. And I think there's a good chance that that, you know, that we get there within the next year or two.
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Their words
does that mean the robotics industry will also be generating trillions of dollars of revenue? My answer there is yes, but there will be the same extremely fast but not infinitely fast diffusion. So, will robotics be be revolutionized? Yeah, maybe tack on another year or two.
+ 1 more
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
10 February
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korrents.com
Manufacturing and mining in space will never be lucrative enough to pay for human settlement of space.Their words, before
Furthermore, I believe it’s very unlikely that space-based manufacturing or mining could be lucrative enough to fund the venture.
Their words now
Today, exploding demand for power-intensive AI applications provides enough of an upside to justify producing components in space, providing the economic engine necessary to justify and fund the trillions of dollars necessary to build and sustain space factories.
6 February
25 December 2025
15 December 2025
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Their words
the average athlete who's taking a few million dollars more to move his wife and kids from one family, one city that they loves him and that he loves to some strange place where everybody's going to be unhappy.
25 November 2025
26 October 2025
27 September 2025
17 September 2025
18 August 2025
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Their words
I mean I've heard from multiple investors that foundation models are the fastest deteriorating asset of all time. And so if step one of your business is to burn through tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars of capital before you find product market fit and that asset has value for like a a week, I'm not sure it's like a great business model.
15 August 2025
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Their words
well their cost of serving it is is like maybe a buck per million tokens or something like that and the cost of electricity is about 10% of that. So it's like 10 cents of electricity is generating $1,000 worth of economic value.
16 July 2025
From one piece The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bank 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
we can cut billions of dollars of marketing out tomorrow. We can stop opening branches and save a billion dollars next year. We could do a lot of things. Your margins will go up. Your growth will go down. Your long-term margins will probably get worse.
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Their words
So, you while we kind of saved the system a lot, we bailed a lot of people out, they made us pay 5 billion dollars on the more the bad mortgages that Bear Stearns had done. And that's what made me make the statement I wouldn't do it again.
28 May 2025
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korrents.com
The binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.Their words
Political costs and civic opposition will often make a technology unviable regardless of how the dollars and cents add up.
12 May 2025
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korrents.com
Direct air capture costing hundreds of dollars per tonne is too expensive to be part of the climate solution.Their words
Whatever the solution to climate change is going to be, it is certainly not going to involve anything that costs $1,000 per tonne of carbon removed, or even the $400 to $600 that they promise by 2030.
Why Tony Blair needs to reset his climate resetliebreich.com
10 April 2025
1 March 2025
12 February 2025
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Their words
The longevity of that consensus is itself remarkable: in 79 years of data, Republican presidents spent an average of $34 billion a year on aid, while Democrats spent $40 billion.
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think it's even more impressive what OpenAI did in 2022. At the time, no one believed in mixture of experts models at Google who had all the researchers. OpenAI had such little compute and they devoted all of their compute for many months, all of it, 100% for many months to GPT-4 with a brand-new architecture with no belief that, "Hey, let me spend a couple of hundred million dollars, which is all of the money I have on this model." That is truly YOLO.
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Their words
And so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it's going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.
19 January 2025
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Their words
But to ever promise a homepage redesign or marketing site redesign in order to drive more acquisition is a failed promise that is going to be led by lots of agency money spending, uh often a million dollars plus
8 January 2025
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
9 November 2024
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Their words
For loads below $1000/kW, intermittent operation with some modest solar array oversizing is the winning strategy. Above $1000/kW, we charge and discharge batteries daily to run them.
Solar and batteries for generic use casescaseyhandmer.wordpress.com
2 October 2024
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korrents.com
NASA's Space Launch System has consumed more than a hundred billion dollars and delivered almost nothing.Their words
Four years on, the program has consumed another $20b with nothing to show for it.
26 September 2024
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Their words
This isn’t a money grab: it’s an expectation that any business making hundreds of millions of dollars off of an open source project ought to give back, and if they don’t, then they can’t use its trademarks.
14 June 2024
26 March 2024
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korrents.com
Even the most commercially successful books are written for a very small group of people rather than for everyone.Their words
Uh Harry Potter, the most successful uh book franchise in history, it made the author over a billion dollars. That book is for almost no one. Right? That book is for precocious 12-year-olds and people who like to remember what was like to be a precocious 12-year-old. That's not everyone. That's a very small group of people.
2 February 2024
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Their words
With an extra $10 billion over 10 years I’m pretty sure we’d get to 5 or 6 of the 10 on the list, and millions of unnecessary deaths would be prevented.
10 technologies that won't exist in 5 yearsblog.jacobtrefethen.com
6 June 2023
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Their words
It’s not exactly news that the American government’s support for biofuels increases food prices, intensifies global hunger and wastes taxpayer dollars.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
9 May 2023
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
PeteyTheir words
The app costs a few dollars up front and then has an optional subscription for unlimited requests, but I would recommend going directly to OpenAI’s developer dashboard, creating your own account, and copy/pasting your own API key into Petey.
20 January 2021
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Their words
We can change software much faster than anybody else can change their systems.
28 May 2019
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the WorldTheir words
Bradley Hope and Tom Wright, Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World: Is financial fraud becoming its own sub-genre? This reporting into yet another fraud reminds me of The Spider Network or Bad Blood. What distinguishes this one is the size: it involved billions of dollars.
22 August 2018
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Their words
A $250/mo recurring donation to would be a drop in the bucket of most businesses, but a major boon to any open source project, with which the business will almost certainly see tangible value-add as a result.
13 June 2018
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Their words
Open source projects on GitHub represent billions of dollars in value creation, but none of that is captured on GitHub.
22 March 2018
Nothing matches.
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