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Elliot Hershberg Newsletter
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13 September
4 September
1 September
From one piece Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get" 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I do think I want to push back on the cyber on the brain hypothesis that you raised a couple of times. We didn't find like particular evidence for the cyber nature of the task making all the hacking and crimes that they did more likely versus the impossible nature of the task.
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Their words
So, I do think that if it happens to be like on the very fast and chaotic end, that would be a relative benefit to this rogue swarm compared to humans. But it's not obvious that it gets caught if it takes twice as long versus half as long.
29 August
26 August
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Their words
when you're working with a lot of data, the the difference can be massive if you structure it in one way versus structuring another way, right? Again, architectural decisions that have nothing to do with hotspots, they're how all the data is laid out and what the access pattern is, right?
24 August
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Their words
We were talking about reward versus effort. And essentially that's a very important way I think that we make a decision. Much of that could be subconscious.
17 August
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Their words
And once you look at the brain systems, they're distinct brain systems in this instance for fear to something out there in the world versus panic of something happening inside you like having a heart attack or not getting enough air.
15 August
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Their words
Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy empirically. If you look at the amount of power generated versus the amount amount of deaths, um it's even safer than solar, which is very strange because how does someone die from solar? that actually most solar is installed on roofs and people sometimes die falling off of a roof installing solar and if you add those deaths up it is actually a higher death per energy than the totality of nuclear energy in the world.
13 August
7 August
29 July
From one piece Formal methods with Hillel Wayne 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
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Their words
But I think it is more useful for most developers to have an exposure to like what math has in the various fields versus just going all in every single field when they see them, right? You've got to know what's available to know what's most useful for you. And most math will not be useful for you.
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Their words
And now I actually think with the power of agents um and AI broadly speaking, it's much closer to Goliath versus Goliath. Like I think but maybe the startup is like a Mecca Goliath that is like vastly enhanced by the power of agents and AI and you know, the the large companies are the sort of like more traditional Goliath, so to speak. But I think that startups now like if you properly embrace AI agents and um figure out the way to leverage their strengths in the most like ambitious ways, you can easily outcompete incumbents.
28 July
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Their words
Why? We engaged early. We made the regulators part of the team and we worked together. We made it boom plus FAA versus the problem, not Boom versus FAA.
19 July
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Their words
It does feel like we have to be more more explicit about the types of people and talent that tend to thrive at Netflix versus other companies like some of the frontier labs.
15 July
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korrents.com
Nobody has found keeping specs and code in sync worth the upkeep; the code stays the source of truth.Their words
I don't think anyone found it useful enough to like maintain a system to keep the specs and the code in sync versus just using the code as the source of truth always.
12 July
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Their words
The primary axis is no longer the politico-economic axis of capitalism-vs-communism, but the ethno-cultural axis of ethnomasochism-vs-ethnonationalism.
4 June
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Their words
So with one, you get the effect that the person produced art print is valued much much higher than the than the AI version. And then what we do is to say there's in a set of other conditions, there's 500 of these being produced. So for the human made one, the price goes down a lot because it's no longer seen as like you're not like making a connection with this one artist versus with AI, there's no difference. AI is already viewed as like a commodity.
27 April
20 March
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korrents.com
The way software gets built flipped in December: writing code yourself is now the exception, not the default.Their words
I kind of went from 80/20 of like, you know, uh to like 20/80 of writing code by myself versus just delegating to agents. And I don't even think it's 20/80 by now. I think it's a lot more than that. I don't think I've typed like a line of code probably since December basically.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
and even if you take a generous interpretation of 128 * 8 gig transfers, you're at 128 gigabytes a second for the same shoreline versus 2 and a half terabytes a second. There's a there's an order of magnitude difference in bandwidth per edge area.
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Their words
They could release claw slow mode and have an increase in tokens per dollar by a significant amount. Um they could probably like reduce the price of Opus 46 by you know 4x 5x and reduce the speed by another by maybe just like 2x like the curve on inference throughput versus speed is there already just on hm um and yet they don't um because no one actually wants to use a slow model
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Their words
So when you look at inference at let's say 100 tokens a second for deepseek and kimk 2.5 hopper versus blackwell the performance difference is on the order of 20x
11 March
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Their words
We all, to some degree, lack the self-awareness of how we tick. So we’re all different types of gamers, but if you ask me to describe the type of gamer I am, I might actually be giving more of a picture of the type of gamer I wish I was or the type of gamer I want you to think I am versus the type of gamer I actually am.
29 December 2025
21 December 2025
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
BreakneckTheir words
Breakneck by Dan Wang Wong does an excellent job at objectively looking at the pros and cons of the Chinese and American societies. The engineering state versus lawyerly society as a way to explain each nation is brilliant.
31 October 2025
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Their words
I would assume it will because it’s so anticipated, and anticipation is the best driver of early sales, as we saw with GTA4 versus Red Dead Redemption one.
5 October 2025
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Their words
Yeah, I mean I used to think it was versus, but now I realize that they combine really well. It could be rocket fuel for for your growth.
4 September 2025
From one piece Dave Hone: T-Rex, Dinosaurs, Extinction, Evolution, and Jurassic Park | Lex Fridman Podcast #480 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The scavenger-versus-hunter argument about T. rex is over: the bite marks show it did both.Their words
They're obviously both. A, because we've got things like the bite marks I just described, which is pretty much definitive scavenging, and then we've got the healed bite marks with T-rex teeth buried in bones, which is pretty much definitive active predation. So we've got evidence of it doing both.
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Their words
But I'm being obviously overly facetious, but if ultimately part of your scaling is how big is the animal versus how big is its brain, that's most of a T-Rex brain. It's a fraction of the size of a chimp brain, and chimps don't weigh seven tons.
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Their words
There are various canids that all hunt in groups, but then you've got things like maned wolves, which are effectively solitary. The hyenas. Spotted hyenas are, yeah, these super social animals, but the brown hyena, the striped hyena, and the aardwolf are solitary. So you just can't do group versus solitary off close relatives or anything like that.
14 June 2025
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Their words
Certainly more on the no than on the yes. The funny thing about P equals NP is that we have also a lot more obstructions than we do for almost any other problem.
3 February 2025
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Their words
And humans are actually very good at reading or judging between two things versus... This goes back to the core of what RLHF and preference tuning is that it's hard to generate a good answer for a lot of problems, but it's easy to see which one is better.
17 October 2024
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Their words
The only way you can make H2FC cars look cheaper than BEVs is to underestimate or ignore the cost of hydrogen production and infrastructure, socialise it, and then load the entire cost of grid build-out onto the marginal BEV.
10 October 2023
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Likedrcmnd.app
Finite and Infinite GamesTheir words
So abstract. Maybe the most abstract book you’ll ever read. Compares “finite” games with rules and winners, versus “infinite” games without winners where we can play with the game itself. Is it about a job versus a calling? Religion versus spirituality? A story versus story-telling? Who knows. Thought-provoking if you can apply the metaphor to whatever concerns you.
1 October 2023
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Their words
In my own view, both markets and states are spontaneous orders, and government is not uniquely the product of “taxis” or “rationalist constructivism.”
25 January 2022
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Their words
what we have now is kind of at the at the sort of deepest level what we have is kind of this big fight between people who want to use the internet to basically reinforce top-down power uh, versus people who want to use it to disrupt top-down power.
11 January 2021
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korrents.com
The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world.Their words
My extensive discussions with Andrew led me to conclude that the focus on value versus growth doesn’t serve investors well in the fast-changing world in which we live.
Something of Value (memo to Oaktree clients)oaktreecapital.com
22 December 2020
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Likedrcmnd.app
WingetTheir words
I use it to setup a machine in an hour from the command line, versus a day before doing it manually.
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Mastering the VC GameTheir words
The interests of a Venture Capitalist are different than those of the entrepreneurs building a company they've invested in. Jeff does an awesome job of helping explain how you can get misaligned in your goals versus your investors. Fortunately, he also covers how to avoid it.
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Tested Advertising MethodsTheir words
If you want to learn the art and science of copywriting, then this is the book for you. An expert copywriter for decades, Caples breaks down in detail what makes a great ad versus a failing one. It's loaded with examples and the kind of insights only a veteran can provide. You do need to provide a little imagination as he focuses on mail in based advertising in magazines, which isn't common today. But really, how different is that from downloading free whitepapers today?
11 September 2018
1 March 2015
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