The jump from Sol to Astra is larger than the jump from Fable 5 to Fable 5.1. This is a big deal. Astra is the best model for what one would broadly call ‘ambitious projects,’ and likely has the highest raw intelligence factor of any model.
But the problem is these agents are just naturally pretty sloppy and they're naturally pretty spiky in their capability profiles. And so you wouldn't necessarily even if you noticed a weird error that it made, you wouldn't necessarily jump to the conclusion that it was like because of some sort of malign crazy conspiracy.
Then there's another possibility which is that it actually already has worked but just the productivity boost isn't as big as would be obvious if people got 10% more productive. That would still be pretty impressive because it's hard to get a 10% across the board uplift.
no matter what kind of industry you're looking at, there was this government angle where the government's policy actions could be ones that could actually unlock technologies.
Energy is the fundamental input to uh the quality of human life. U if you look backward into time and say how did humanity go from one standard of living to the next, it's always unlocked by cheaper energy, right?
Um, as I speak, the number of new businesses starting on Stripe is up around a bit under, but around 2x year-over-year, um, which again is the largest relative jump, uh, we've seen.
and I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute in order to achieve um their greatest intelligence. If you if it requires so much test time on compute to unlock the full capabilities of the model, then that means you're bottlenecked by time
I think great products in the consumer world speak to us on some deep level. They they speak to some human instinct or need that we've been feeling and it's been unexpressed or unmet. When we first experience that, there's something magical to it that it could be an unlock. And lots of times it's it's where we're most cynical that we're ready for the most magic.
In the same way we owe our you we have a responsibility to our users we have a responsibility to our engineers or our builders people who are in the factory building and so I said there there should be a moral contract if you're going to take that hill I'm going to show you that I am going to work just as hard to unlock value out of the work you did
Like I I write books and as much I wish that books as a format will be like will survive. I do think that people don't read books the same way anymore.
But right now I think it's sitting somewhere between half million and five million lines of code, somewhere in there. Probably more on the half million side right now and with the next drop of an Anthropic model, we're probably going to see it jump up to a few million lines.
Scrutiny typically either jumps several points on any 10-point scale after an incident that kills a bunch of people, or increases very slowly over decades.
. Understanding how we grow and develop will help you become a better leader and a more empathetic colleague. More accessible than his academic work, this book also provides a framework for understanding underlying beliefs and motivations that might be holding you back.
And I kind of feel like the industry it's it's um it's over it's it's making too big of a jump and it's trying to pretend like this is amazing and it's not. It's slop and I think they're not coming to terms with it and maybe they're trying to fund raise or something like that.
When we resist not knowing, we often leap to conclusions, make decisions without all of the information, or simply guess. Of course, that might make it even more likely that we're wrong, the very thing our subconscious is trying to avoid. Needing to be right comes at the expense of curiosity.
I'm not a defensive realist, I'm an offensive realist. And my argument is that states look for opportunities to gain more power, and every time they see, or almost every time they see an opportunity to gain more power, and they think the likelihood of success is high and the cost will not be great, they'll jump at that opportunity.
Neurobiologists tell us that it takes two things to unlock and open up a neural pathway. The first is that the implicit must be made explicit. Sometimes you need help seeing what you don't see. But you must be open to the feedback. Second, there must be some sort of recoil, a sense of discrepancy, of "Oh no, I'm not sure I really want to keep doing that."
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