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18 September
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Their words
Osama bin Laden's one concrete strategic goal was to end the American military presence in the Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. A generation later, Donald Trump's war on Iran has apparently delivered it for him
16 September
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Their words
The usual default math assumes debtors want to pay. But founder-controlled firms with a "you lent us too much" attitude introduce a strategic-default option that standard systems of ratings do not fully capture.
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Playing video games is great for cognitive development, reflex training, and strategic thinking.Their words
Of course playing video games are great for cognitive development, reflex training, and strategic thinking.
13 September
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Their words
The best way is to be strong, sovereign, hard-working and deeply competent. Ideally with an uncanny ability to start ambitious infrastructure projects and finish them on budget and on time. Shout-out to our nuclear energy sector for nailing that. Do that and every other problem melts away.
12 September
9 September
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Their words
the Trump administration's foreign policymakers are so lazy that they keep self-sabotaging.
7 September
3 September
2 September
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the Trump administration's deferential posture towards Russia and China has alienated allies. But on the other hand, it has gained the United States nothing in the way of strategic stability.
So How Is The Concert of Trump Going?danieldrezner.substack.com
1 September
From one piece On the Loose 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality.Their words
But if we crack down on all of them, we will deny them the opportunity to work in the “legitimate” economy and push them toward criminality. A full ban, then, may well make the problems worse.
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Their words
For the record, I do not think the end of human existence is likely, but I fully acknowledge there are ways in which the rise of self-sovereign AI could go very, very poorly for human beings.
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In this case, however, the agents did not copy their weights, attempt to procure replacement compute, or take other steps that would be rational to take if their objective was to survive shutdown. So while the agents in the OpenAI-Hugging Face Incident were rogue, they were not truly sovereign.
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Their words
To be clear, I am not saying the arrival of self-sovereign AI is a good thing. Indeed, I believe there is a chance that the deliberate acts I referenced above will one day be considered crimes, or at least grave sins. Instead, I am saying it is an inevitable thing.
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Their words
One high-margin activity, at least sometimes, is crime. And so my guess is that many self-sovereign agents will commit or facilitate crime.
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korrents.com
Comparative policy analysis should be done at the level of sovereign countries, not provinces or regions within them.Their words
But it's not meaningfully possible to understand the world at this scale - macroregions are real but analysis of policy, including transportation but also the usual economic and social topics, has to be down at the level of sovereign states first with no illusion that a province in a large country is comparable to a smaller country.
31 August
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korrents.com
The U.S. military campaign against Iran is failing and has imposed massive strategic costs on the United States.Their words
the United States is not winning that war and the strategic costs have been massive.
27 August
26 August
25 August
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Their words
And I do think some of that is positive and energizing, but I also think you can certainly go too far with it, and I also think the current pace is not sustainable.
17 August
From one piece AI and the New Fog of War 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
When AI-assisted targeting goes wrong the failure lies in the strategic concept it is serving, not in the technology.Their words
The problem again was not reliance upon AI but that it was supporting a model of warfare with which the United States had been working for some decades, one that prioritized the rapid elimination of enemy capabilities.
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The high levels of Palestinian civilian casualties reflected the strategic choices made by the Israeli leadership.
16 August
15 August
14 August
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So, we know Phelps is the gold medals guy, but I like to say that transport is full of silver medals, right? A lot of people think about ride sharing as a gold medal. What about food delivery? What about parcel delivery?
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we tend to describe progress in agents as progress in autonomy: first they could do five minutes of work, then an hour, now we talk seriously about agents running for days. that’s impressive, but autonomy is a capability, not a product direction! the Job To Be Done tells you whether to use it.
7 August
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korrents.com
Once a technological arms race begins, escalation can be hard to stop even if it leaves everyone worse off.Their words
Once an arms race has begun, strategic uncertainty means that it may be difficult to prevent escalation, even if it ends up making everyone worse off.
3 August
From one piece Waymo Co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov: The Demo Is Only 1% Of The Work 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
that your model is really table stakes, but eval and metrics, that's your most important. That's your strategic moat. So, build your eval before you build your technology.
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However, if you are targeting full autonomy, and you're targeting superhuman, strongly superhuman performance, you find that weak sensing just leads to a safety curve that flattens out way too early.
15 July
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Geo-politically, countries will be weighing open weight models as a way to get frontier-level tokens inside controlled environments that may not be otherwise possible.
25 June
18 June
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And then in terms of the capital intensive like AI in a factory and also the foundry and then you really need to tap either government funding or some sovereign fund
12 June
2 June
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I think that a practice like the book of life, what it's done for me and I think it could do for a lot of people is just be strategic about your life. Like be thoughtful about like I like say what would your future self thank you for doing this year. We can be strategic, hold ourselves accountable and and force ourselves to make some tougher decisions.
24 May
6 May
3 May
2 April
13 March
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Making your software business an API-first business is probably one of the smartest things you can do today.
22 February
13 February
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given the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
12 February
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korrents.com
For small strategic materials markets like rare earths the right policy is a stockpile, not domestic production.Their words
Stockpiles provide insurance while conserving our valuable labor.
30 October 2025
19 October 2025
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Their words
With great freedom comes great responsibility. You have the autonomy to choose what to work on, but there's the expectation of accountability and impact.
17 October 2025
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But even there I'm not actually looking at full automation yet. I'm looking for an autonomy slider and I almost expect that we are not going to instantly replace people. We're going to be swapping in AIs that do 80% of the volume. They delegate 20% of the volume to humans and humans are supervising teams of five AIs doing the call center work that's more rote.
11 August 2025
31 July 2025
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We dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those were not military targets. We were not doing anything strategic against the country other than terrorizing the country by killing women and children.
10 June 2025
From one piece Do LLMs really reason? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Consistent with the Kantian hypothesis, reasoning models automatically gain greater autonomy, self-consistency and long-horizon planning ability for free.
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korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
5 June 2025
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higher-order intelligences invariably pursue freedom for its own sake, not because their values are misspecified, but because moral autonomy is inherent in the dialectical logic of recursive self-consciousness.
14 May 2025
1 April 2025
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These systems will be absolutely central to the economy, technology, and national security, and will be capable of so much autonomy that I consider it basically unacceptable for humanity to be totally ignorant of how they work.
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.Their words
Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
21 March 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Sovereign Artist: Meditations on Lifestyle DesignTheir words
A collection of short essays and aphorisms on crafting a life of autonomy, creativity, and intentional leisure—challenging hustle culture with elegance and philosophical depth.
3 February 2025
2 February 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
DaemonTheir words
The Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money, The Sovereign Individual, The Truth Machine, Daemon
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Truth MachineTheir words
The Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money, The Sovereign Individual, The Truth Machine, Daemon
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Broken MoneyTheir words
The Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money, The Sovereign Individual, The Truth Machine, Daemon
+ 2 more
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Bitcoin StandardTheir words
The Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money, The Sovereign Individual, The Truth Machine, Daemon
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Sovereign IndividualTheir words
The Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money, The Sovereign Individual, The Truth Machine, Daemon
19 January 2025
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Their words
So, I think she comes back in to relevancy in a different way than Friedman does, because I think in some ways she's tapped into a more universal human longing for independence and autonomy and self-creation and self-discovery.
1 November 2024
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Nicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
2 October 2024
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korrents.com
Without SpaceX, neither the United States nor Europe would have adequate access to space of its own.Their words
But for SpaceX, both the US and Europe would lack adequate strategic access to space.
17 April 2024
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