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Nathan Lambert Newsletter
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19 September
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Their words
lossy self-improvement remains my baseline on the trajectory of progress, and the increased discussion of extinction risk seems very misplaced
16 September
14 September
1 September
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korrents.com
Launch costs are on a declining trajectory comparable to Moore's Law-driven chip cost declines in the 1990s.Their words
One reason Starcloud has been so successful at fundraising is that it's a bet on launch costs decreasing, and that's like betting on Moore's Law in the 1990s.
19 August
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Their words
The first thing I do is I try to make sure that if there is a summary at the very end, here are all the decisions that were made, I will read through that end to end. If there hasn't been, I will prompt for that decision process.
17 August
8 August
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Their words
Increasingly, it is looking much more like the one anticipated by the drugged-up 1960s oeuvre of Philip K Dick, filled with deranged billionaires, machines that claim consciousness, hallucinated worlds and political breakdown.
29 July
22 July
15 July
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Their words
there's four things in your context window that matter. There's like the size of it, how many tokens? There's like the quality of the information is like is there any incorrect information? Like if the model had some thinking trace where it decided the wrong thing was true. Is there missing information? Does this like have context missing that it should have? And then there's the trajectory.
3 June
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Their words
and it turns out people kind of over glorify entrepreneurship. I think a lot of people believe there is tremendous upside, right? the type of entrepreneurship we talk about with software companies, the the upside is crazy. But when you're doing like selling parts or service business, unless you plan to open lots of stores and you know grow a larger employee base, it's not the same growth trajectory as software companies.
28 February
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korrents.com
On the current trajectory, AI will do more to threaten civil liberties than to protect them.Their words
On the default path, I think AI will do more to threaten civil liberties than to preserve them.
13 August 2025
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Their words
But for a variety of reasons I think it makes more sense to stay agnostic about forecasts of potential GDP growth, and focus more on the signals the current performance of the economy is sending.
19 February 2025
19 January 2025
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Their words
Growth team can optimize. Growth can maybe lift it by 10, 15% maybe that's enough for you even that like is on the upper end of what growth team would be able to do if there is a slow down trajectory
9 November 2024
13 December 2023
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I'd say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
12 August 2023
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Their words, before
Reading the book had not changed my fundamental belief that, in balance, we were on a good trajectory with AI research: good for science and good for society with expected positive impacts in many domains.
Their words now
I now believe that I was wrong and short-sighted to ignore that dual-use nature. I also think I was not paying enough attention to the possibility of losing control to superhuman AIs.
7 September 2022
From one piece Nick Lane: Origin of Life, Evolution, Aliens, Biology, and Consciousness | Lex Fridman Podcast #318 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Well, the universe is very big, but not as many as most people would like to think is my view, because the idea that there is a trajectory going from simple cellular life like bacteria, all the way through to humans, seems to me there’s some big gaps along that way, that the eukaryotic cell, the complex cell that we have is the biggest of them.
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Their words
So, there is no necessary trajectory towards great complexity in human beings at the end of it. It’s very easy to imagine that without photosynthesis arising or without eukaryotes arising, that the planet could be full of bacteria and nothing else.
1 March 2022
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