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Maciej Cegłowski Blog
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20 September
19 September
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Their words
lossy self-improvement remains my baseline on the trajectory of progress, and the increased discussion of extinction risk seems very misplaced
16 September
14 September
1 September
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korrents.com
Launch costs are on a declining trajectory comparable to Moore's Law-driven chip cost declines in the 1990s.Their words
One reason Starcloud has been so successful at fundraising is that it's a bet on launch costs decreasing, and that's like betting on Moore's Law in the 1990s.
31 August
19 August
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Their words
The first thing I do is I try to make sure that if there is a summary at the very end, here are all the decisions that were made, I will read through that end to end. If there hasn't been, I will prompt for that decision process.
17 August
8 August
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Their words
Increasingly, it is looking much more like the one anticipated by the drugged-up 1960s oeuvre of Philip K Dick, filled with deranged billionaires, machines that claim consciousness, hallucinated worlds and political breakdown.
29 July
22 July
20 July
18 July
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
A City on MarsTheir words
They excel at making the dull delightful. There are a lot of big and serious facts to get through, but they have a gift for communicating them simply and eloquently. I just wish they'd've come to a different conclusion.
15 July
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Their words
there's four things in your context window that matter. There's like the size of it, how many tokens? There's like the quality of the information is like is there any incorrect information? Like if the model had some thinking trace where it decided the wrong thing was true. Is there missing information? Does this like have context missing that it should have? And then there's the trajectory.
3 June
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Their words
and it turns out people kind of over glorify entrepreneurship. I think a lot of people believe there is tremendous upside, right? the type of entrepreneurship we talk about with software companies, the the upside is crazy. But when you're doing like selling parts or service business, unless you plan to open lots of stores and you know grow a larger employee base, it's not the same growth trajectory as software companies.
26 March
28 February
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korrents.com
On the current trajectory, AI will do more to threaten civil liberties than to protect them.Their words
On the default path, I think AI will do more to threaten civil liberties than to preserve them.
13 February
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Their words
My one little bit, the one little bit of of fundamental uncertainty even on long time scales is this thing about tasks that aren't verifiable. Like, planning a mission to Mars, like, uh you know, doing some fundamental scientific discovery like like CRISPR, like, you know, writing a writing a novel. Hard to hard to verify those tasks.
13 September 2025
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korrents.com
Nine tenths of the cost of Mars Sample Return comes from a single planetary-protection requirement.Their words
something like 90% of the complexity and cost of MSR is driven by a requirement that the samples “break the chain” on the way home
13 August 2025
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Their words
But for a variety of reasons I think it makes more sense to stay agnostic about forecasts of potential GDP growth, and focus more on the signals the current performance of the economy is sending.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Growth team can optimize. Growth can maybe lift it by 10, 15% maybe that's enough for you even that like is on the upper end of what growth team would be able to do if there is a slow down trajectory
22 December 2024
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korrents.com
A Mars base is not a backup plan for climate change or nuclear war, because self-sufficiency there is centuries away.Their words
So, trying to establish a base on Mars it's going to be so hard that it is not even going to be close to being self-sufficient for a couple a century at least. So, it's not like a backup plan now, we have to solve the problem of climate change, we have to deal with that.
9 November 2024
13 December 2023
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I'd say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
3 December 2023
26 November 2023
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korrents.com
Mars Sample Return as designed is too complicated, too slow and too expensive to succeed.Their words
The brief summary is that MSR’s architecture, pictured below, is incredibly complicated, slow, and expensive.
What is going on with Mars Sample Return?caseyhandmer.wordpress.com
9 November 2023
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korrents.com
China will incorporate Taiwan, peacefully or militarily, and from its own standpoint that outcome is not in doubt.Their words
Yes, China has been very clear that they’ll incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily, but that they will incorporate it from their standpoint is 100% likely.
12 August 2023
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Their words, before
Reading the book had not changed my fundamental belief that, in balance, we were on a good trajectory with AI research: good for science and good for society with expected positive impacts in many domains.
Their words now
I now believe that I was wrong and short-sighted to ignore that dual-use nature. I also think I was not paying enough attention to the possibility of losing control to superhuman AIs.
1 January 2023
From one piece Why Not Mars 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
With our current capability, NASA would struggle to keep a crew alive for six months on the White House lawn, let alone for years in a Martian yurt.
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korrents.com
The crewed Mars programme is the biggest project in history and nobody can say what it is for.Their words
Somehow we’ve embarked on the biggest project in history even though it has no articulable purpose, offers no benefits, and will cost taxpayers more than a good-sized war.
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Their words
So I’ve come to believe the best way to look at our Mars program is as a faith-based initiative.
+ 2 more
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Their words
The goal of this essay is to persuade you that we shouldn’t send human beings to Mars, at least not anytime soon.
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korrents.com
Landing people on Mars would contaminate it and destroy the evidence of life we went there to find.Their words
Like careless investigators who didn’t wear gloves to a crime scene, we would risk permanently destroying the evidence we came to collect.
13 October 2022
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Likedrcmnd.app
Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the VoidTheir words
Roach comes up with all the best quotes and stories, seems to have talked to everyone and done everything.
7 September 2022
From one piece Nick Lane: Origin of Life, Evolution, Aliens, Biology, and Consciousness | Lex Fridman Podcast #318 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Well, the universe is very big, but not as many as most people would like to think is my view, because the idea that there is a trajectory going from simple cellular life like bacteria, all the way through to humans, seems to me there’s some big gaps along that way, that the eukaryotic cell, the complex cell that we have is the biggest of them.
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Their words
So, there is no necessary trajectory towards great complexity in human beings at the end of it. It’s very easy to imagine that without photosynthesis arising or without eukaryotes arising, that the planet could be full of bacteria and nothing else.
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Their words
So, it wouldn’t surprise me any longer if we found life on Mars and it had a genetic code that was not very different to the genetic code that we have here without it just being transferred across, there’s some inevitability about the whole of the beginnings of life, in my view.
1 March 2022
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