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Nathan Lambert Bluesky
Where I stand on RSI: A moderate's view on the recent events and trajectory of AI. I was underestimating how much we are likely to scale inference-time compute in the near future, but have not seen much to convince me that an intelligence explosion is near.
underestimatingmoderateexplosion
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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19 September
10 September
9 September
4 September
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Their words
Keeping the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 runs as a plausible upper limit is particularly important given that recent research has emphasized the possibility that models are underestimating future warming.
1 September
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Their words
then that rogue deployment could be sitting there and sort of hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion. So new models are being trained every few weeks um and when a model comes off the presses, the rogue agents could try to bring that model into the swarm.
30 August
29 July
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korrents.com
The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities.Their words
The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities
9 July
7 July
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korrents.com
Climate models are underestimating how intense heatwaves become at a given level of global warming.Their words
the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.
6 July
From one piece Introducing the Alumni Mentor Corps 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Realizing AI's potential to expand human potential requires humans and AI working together, not AI acting alone.Their words
AI has the potential to trigger an explosion of human potential, but it will require both humans and AIs working together to realize that potential.
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Their words
I believe the same is true of the current intelligence explosion being driven by AI. We are in desperate need of new social structures that allow us to harness its power, without damaging or destroying human values in the process.
26 June
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Their words
and I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute in order to achieve um their greatest intelligence. If you if it requires so much test time on compute to unlock the full capabilities of the model, then that means you're bottlenecked by time
5 June
16 May
8 May
8 April
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Their words, before
I know this from experience because I've been trying to build a lot of other businesses since. And some of them have been moderate successes, even good successes, none of them have been Basecamp. It's really difficult to do that twice.
Their words now
And I have no shame in saying that Base Camp was the best idea objectively in terms of a business that we've ever had.
4 February
1 January
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us SmarterTheir words
A decade on, it already feels possible that in the future, commentators will argue that this specific fruitful synthesis lit the fuse on evolutionary cultural anthropology’s explosion (with due apologies to earlier books from L. L. Cavalli-Sforza, E. O. Wilson, Peter Richerson and Robert Boyd).
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I do, but it's business as usual because we're we're in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades. And when you look at GDP, it's basically the GDP curve that is an exponential weighted sum over so many aspects of the industry. Everything is gradually being automated has been for hundreds of years.
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Their words
I think um yeah, they're not very good at code that hasn't never been written before maybe is like one way to put it, which is like what we're trying to achieve when we're building these models.
16 October 2025
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Have we seen productivity increases? Yeah, mild to moderate, but like that is not something that has made our new headcount we want for engineering go down.
10 October 2025
5 October 2025
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And I think what's also kind of interesting is that just human nature is that if you have a question that you feel like, you know, you might be a bit embarrassed to ask or you don't want to bother someone, you just don't ask the question, right? And so by the nature of having these tools, you get actually a pretty large explosion of questions being asked.
29 January 2025
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Their words
Where housing costs are moderate, friends and family have bigger homes. When they are higher, friends and family don’t have space to share, and this is often what puts a vulnerable person onto the streets.
19 January 2025
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Their words
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order.
26 August 2024
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Their words
On top of that, leaping to criminal charges against an exec over civil penalties for a company… seems strange.
23 January 2024
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korrents.com
The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities.Their words
I worry however that one of America’s superpowers is to spin up yarns to reduce the urgency for action.
1 December 2023
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