When liability exposure approaches 0—when no one pays the price for unverified failures—verification budgets collapse...Deployers flood the Runaway Risk Zone with unmonitored agents, capturing the gains of automation while socializing catastrophic risks.
OpenAI and Anthropic have entered the RSI era. OpenAI Research Progress Is Accelerating Due To OpenAI Research Progress OpenAI has been opening up lately about many things. The most important issue of all is that of the acceleration and automation of AI R&D.
I suspect that some of the labs' willingness to put money into the social sciences stems from the realization of senior people that the practical build out of AI is highly unpopular in the U.S and their urgent desire to figure out how to sugarcoat the pill so that it will get swallowed
With thousands of developed in a mono repo, it just does happen that one directory is missing one of the two files and this means that a subset of devs work with lobotomy. We fix this with automation but it’s a stupid complexity tax that shouldn’t have to be paid.
If you're doing highcale tasks, industrial scale tasks, you are going to make specialized machines that move and act in the physical world. The key part is move. If they're moving, they got to have wheels.
I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033
It's like it's it's uncommon that these deep tech companies that fail because the technology doesn't work. They fail because once you end up with this organization of hundreds of people and thousand hundreds of thousands of square feet of physical infrastructure, you haven't built the systems to manage that.
There's like I think four or five people across the team who manage other PMs. All of them would spend 90 plus percent of their time doing IC work. I'm still probably 50% of my time doing IC work personally.
Top-down works well if leadership is good enough to be in the weeds and be specifically correct. I think where it falls apart is where you don't actually know ground truth and then you attempt to manage people from above and that's where I think the term micromanagement comes from.
And just human organizations are complicated and it's very hard to have um to manage to aggressively prosecute 100 different priorities and to deal with all the issues and interference that arises among them and so forth. And so, you know, Google has done incredibly well in a bunch of specific places, but it's not like Google has done all the things even if in some kind of basic material sense, uh Google maybe, you know, had that ability.
The evidence would show that and it makes perfect sense that AI and automation is creating jobs everywhere. The narrative about AI destroying jobs is exactly backwards. AI eliminate tasks. AI automates tasks away. But it doesn't necessary doesn't necessarily eliminate jobs.
Laravel Forge is an amazing service offered by the Laravel team to provision and manage servers. I use it for both my personal and work related servers.
Using Herd for local development is a no-brainer. In my experience it's made it much easier to manage my sites and local php and node versions, plus it runs each site much faster.
A digital service team that works with an agency that continues to hire and manage for the same jobs they did last year, and structures the work in the same way it did last year, is just a tourist.
Automation is a lie. Um in the sense that every time you automate something, in order to make sure the automation is working well, you need a human on top of it like making sure that it's working well.
if you want to manage something like as a leader, you have to understand that the most consequential decisions that will affect any organization's life are almost by definition made when no manager is present.
I gave pi a skill for using the search engine SearXNG (which aggregates many search engines together at the same time), and one for calling into a daemon that I wrote that gives it access to read my email and Signal messages, and send-to-self, and send to others only with human confirmation.
And not only that, but like humans were already a bit of a bottleneck in the review process. Now it can be worse because things that we fairly straightforward changes that some companies had automation around reviewing, they've removed that reviewing because if AI is involved and they're worried about the verifiability or the reliability of the code.
The robot arm base case saves some hourly labor at the expense of adding more skilled labor, and can easily be negative if it needs reprogramming more than a few times per year.
Компьютеры стали бытовым прибором, начать программировать легче, чем когда-либо, сложнейшие вещи делаются просто и даже тривиально, написаны горы готового кода. К сожалению, у этого есть и обратная сторона - программы становятся большими, медленными, неуправляемыми, непонимаемыми.
Explicit filtering rules (e.g. rules features in many email clients): mostly a failure. It's too much work to set up and then manage these, especially since a given person's preferences will change over time.
AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processing.
That's great, but I don't think it can replace a human poking at virtual machines; my experience with EC2 is that images break in all sorts of wild ways, and nothing beats a human for saying "huh, I have no idea what's going on here but something seems weird".
But even there I'm not actually looking at full automation yet. I'm looking for an autonomy slider and I almost expect that we are not going to instantly replace people. We're going to be swapping in AIs that do 80% of the volume. They delegate 20% of the volume to humans and humans are supervising teams of five AIs doing the call center work that's more rote.
Cursor… it’s tab completion model is industry leading, if you still write code yourself. I use VS Code mostly, I do like them pushing things like browser automation and plan mode tho.
I think that managing change, it's always been manager's job to manage change and there's always the chaos of what's going on. I just think the rate of change is accelerating and we've seen that over the last couple of decades.
And I think we'll see the same thing with automation where uh basically robot plus human is much better than just human or just robot. Uh and and that just like makes total sense. It also makes it much easier to get all the technology bootstrapped because when it's robot plus human, now there's a lot more potential for the robot to like actually learn on the job, acquire new skills.
if you tell what what jobs are most likely to be automated with the current generation of technology, you would probably put software engineering right at the top. The people building this technology or building the technology that is disrupting their own profession.
If you look at the most recent evidence on this issue, they found that post-1990, aging economies became richer. Not the other way around, which was true for the pre-1990 sample. And the reason is that these aging societies much more rapidly adopted new technologies, automation that actually helped the entire economy.
And Meta right now are not at the frontier. Maybe they'll manage to get back on there and it's probably rational what they're doing from their perspective because they're behind and they need to do something. But I think there's more important things than just money.
And so, I always look what I call the fat tails and manage that we can handle all the all the fat tails. And not the stress test the Fed gives us, but all the fat tails.
There are no winks there are no nods there are no side deals there's almost no one paid on a particular thing because if you're paid on a particular thing you can do the wrong thing and meanwhile not helping the company you know manage its risk or something like that.
But my point is that this is still not the reason (or is only a very small reason) why these goods from China are cheaper than elsewhere. The main driver of lower labour costs has been automation; not having a human worker at all.
But, China mainly dominates these markets because it has produced a long-term industrial strategy for these technologies and has honed an optimised, modern supply chain as a result.
The stereotype is that new managers often micromanage, but at Wave, I've noticed that new managers often err on the side of undermanaging, or being too hands-off, perhaps out of a desire to signal that they trust their reports.
you should expect to have something like 10-20% less individual output per engineer you manage, depending on how experienced you are, they are, etc., and with substantial week-to-week variance.
This is a command line tool with plenty of plugins that lets you prompt different models. Think of it as a command-line version of Open WebUI. It’s particularly useful for quick scripting and basic automation.
Olga Dies Dreaming by Xochitl Gonzalez - Olga grows up in the Puerto Rican community in New York and becomes enormously successful as a wedding planner, but cannot manage her own relationships
suggests that any steering automation safety gains (e.g., Level 2 autopilot) are approximately negated by driver complacency, with autopilot on being slightly worse than autopilot off
The liberation we are offered is a liberation from the very care-driven involvement in the world and in our communities that would render our lives meaningful and satisfying.
great engineers really shouldn’t need to manage large teams to get promoted, and companies lose out on a critical skillset when they push all of their good engineers into management.
Classic book with near-cult following. How to manage every last itty bitty tiny thing in your life. Keep your inbox empty. Re-read 16 years later. Still great.
Another thing that needs to be fixed when it ultimately breaks down, another bit of automation that works 99% of the time, but starts making funny noises when you slip into the 1%
If what's holding you back from shipping is, say, getting more customer input, or a brittle release process, or flaky monitoring, or missing tests, then all the bot does is to add noise. It doesn't help you ship.
I've run all my sites on Jekyll and GitHub Pages for a while now. I have found it easier to manage than WordPress (particularly as I know next to nothing about databases),
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.