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Nathan Lambert
Bluesky
When will average people feel AI’s impact? We’re <5 years into a compounding revolution which could take a century, and how the AI industry should manage this.
compounding revolution
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19 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Today’s America: 3 million business owners worth an average of $25 million each, notables in their towns but not individually visible to the nation. And more than half the rise in the top 1% share since 1985 flowed through the pass-through businesses that was a “tax efficiency innovation” feature of the Reagan Revolution. The Reagan Revolution promised faster growth in exchange for lower taxes on the rich. The rich won; the growth never showed up: **Passthrough Tax Loopholes & the Rise... 1/ America Related
President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.
Many people think that the words “Artificial Intelligence” are inaccurate, and very ineloquent, relative to AI, or Artificial Intelligence. A far more elegant and accurate description of this new phenomena would be Superior Intelligence (SI) or, Extreme Intelligence (EI) or, Supreme Intelligence (SI). This is a Poll, and I would appreciate everybody voting! Which is the best name for this ever growing “Revolution?” President DONALD J. TRUMP Related
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
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Passthrough Tax Loopholes & the Rise of the American Gentry: CHART OF THE DAY
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
The Reagan Revolution promised faster growth in exchange for lower taxes on the rich. The rich won; the growth never showed up.
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braddelong.substack.com
Their words
And more than half the rise in the top 1% share since 1985 flowed through the pass-through businesses that was a "tax efficiency innovation" feature of the Reagan Revolution.
Show the whole quote
braddelong.substack.com
18 September
Geneticist and writer on human population genetics, deep history and evolution; author of the Unsupervised Learning newsletter.
17 September
Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute. Keeps a personal site of reading lists, open questions and notes on scientific progress and how research is funded.
Tempo is compounding very quickly. Seeing a lot of new stablecoin + agent use-cases. Quoting @nischayup $2B in 30D transfer volume on Tempo and we're just getting started Related
12 September
Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.
9 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
Almost every technology boom creates a bubble, then a bust, whether it’s railroads, the Industrial Revolution, or the late 1920s. Think about the late '20s: electricity, refrigeration, telephones, radios, airplanes, and cars were all emerging at once. Naturally, people wanted to invest in these miracles. The danger is that people fail to distinguish the miracle from the investment. A technology can be truly transformative, but if the stocks are priced too high or bought on debt, you get a crash. That is the mechanics behind how bubbles form and burst. New technology will be great, there is no… energy Related
Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.
8 September
Founder and chief executive of Replit. Previously an engineer at Facebook and Codecademy. Writes essays on programming, philosophy and entrepreneurship at amasad.me.
Honored to have the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, help us open Replit’s first international office in London! I’ve really appreciated the Mayor’s approach to AI, it feels very similar to ours. He calls himself an AI realist: clear-eyed about the disruption AI will create, but optimistic about the impact if we give people the tools and skills to participate in the coming revolution. That’s exactly how we think about it at Replit. AI is going to transform work, so we have to make sure far more people can use it to create, build businesses, and access new opportunities. It’s also why, as we estab… Quoting @MayorofLondon London shares Replit’s vision of a world where everyone can benefit from the opportunities of the AI age. I was delighted to open their first international office in King's Cross. It speaks to the extraordinary optimism coming from every corner of our capital’s booming tech sector. Related
Designer and technologist; author of The Laws of Simplicity; former president of the Rhode Island School of Design; formerly at the MIT Media Lab.
AUTODESIGNING PPTX: While trying to understand the new @github HydraFusion Project https://t.co/B03qBEWQQK I made my seventh attempt at a bespoke, and on-brand, PPTX deck tool for my brother @mariorod1 to cook with as a custom GitHub Copilot Canvas. It's getting an awfully lot easier to work within Swiss typographic grids in "creative" ways that make the literal roll of the dice satisfyingly fast without making so many LLM calls. Next, I'm looking forward to adding all the interesting GEPA and GRPO stuff that will enable compounding learning capabilities. —JM --- Cozy AI Recipe: - I pointed G… youtu.be
LLMs Related
3 September
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
1 September
Co-founder and CEO of 37signals, makers of Basecamp and HEY; co-author of Rework, Remote and It Does Not Have to Be Crazy at Work.
Another Basecamp update today! Now activity is condensed at the top of a project, and fully expanded at the bottom. Such a great way to just know what's been happening, daily, all the way back to day one. Simply scroll. Not on Basecamp yet? WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? Dumping Mac OS for Omarchy? Keep up the momentum... Dump that pile of "the usual" work tools and replace them with Basecamp. Revolution's in the air my friends. Omarchy Related
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
10 August
Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford, co-director of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, and co-founder and CEO of World Labs.
Their words
What happened there is actually not as revolutionary as you might think because the bottom line is it's still data.
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youtube.com
29 July
Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.
27 July
Co-founder and CTO of Oxide Computer Company. Created DTrace at Sun Microsystems and was CTO of Joyent; blogs about systems software, open source and engineering culture.
It has been a WILD couple of weeks in AI -- it's clear the open weight revolution is truly upon us -- and I am thrilled to announce that @simonwillison.net will be joining @ahl.bsky.social and me to help us make sense of it all! Join us today, 5p Pacific! discord.gg
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22 July
Developer, author and YouTuber covering Raspberry Pi, homelab hardware and Ansible automation. Author of Ansible for DevOps.
21 July
Experimental psychologist and author of the blog Experimental History, on psychology, science reform and creativity.
Their words
What stands out about Hsieh's version is that her roots occupy such a unique spot in history: her grandparents were Chinese born in Indonesia, which means they got caught between the rock of the Cultural Revolution and the hard place of anti-communist backlash.
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experimental-history.com
12 July
Economist specialising in global income inequality; formerly lead economist in the World Bank research department, now at the CUNY Graduate Center and author of the Global Inequality and More newsletter.
4 June
Behavioural economist at Chicago Booth, professor of behavioural science and economics and director of AGI economics at Google DeepMind.
Their words
But, if we get into a situation where people are satiated with capital, um then the returns to accumulating capital are going to be lower. And so, then these rich people are going to be consuming more.
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1 June
Co-founder of AngelList. Writes and podcasts at nav.al in short, aphoristic pieces on startups, wealth and judgement rather than long essays.
The AI Industrial Revolution Full episode with 20 minutes of new material at the end. With Guillermo Rauch (Vercel), Blake Scholl (Boom Supersonic), and Max Hodak (Science). Nivi: Welcome. You’re listening to Naval Podcast, your authoritative sourc…
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Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, and creator of Omarchy.
31 May
Statistician at Carnegie Mellon; writes on complex systems, machine learning and inference, and has kept a books-read notebook since 2000 that is now thousands of entries long.
Their words
An old (1962) but still interesting history of the earlier part of the scientific revolution. In every field, Boas traces a basically-humanist impulse to discard medieval ideas and accomplishments, in favor of reviving antiquity, the more antique the better, which only gradually turned towards striving to go beyond Greco-Roman science to something actually new and unprecedented.
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bactra.org
26 May
Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.
14 May
Hosts the Lex Fridman Podcast — long, unhurried conversations with scientists, engineers and public figures. Several of the interviews quoted elsewhere on this site are episodes of it.
I'm traveling the world for a bit, starting with China but then hopping around the globe, anywhere. Open to any adventure. No plans, only a backpack. Hoping to meet & get to know humans from all walks of life. The pic is from a long hike on the Great Wall. For me, as a fan of history, this was an epic experience. In China, first I'm visiting a few big cities & talking to engineers at the heart of China's AI revolution. After that, if feeling crazy enough, I'm hitchhiking (first time) across rural China for a few weeks. Hitchhiking because I think it's the best way to meet rural folks who I wo… China Related
8 May
Geneticist at Harvard; reads ancient DNA to work out how populations moved and mixed, and wrote Who We Are and How We Got Here.
Their words
This is like a crazy result because uh it looks like there's no key selective sweeps that have occurred in this period that is ancestral to everyone living today.
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youtube.com
23 March
Hosts the Lex Fridman Podcast — long, unhurried conversations with scientists, engineers and public figures. Several of the interviews quoted elsewhere on this site are episodes of it.
x.com Here's my conversation with Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, the most valuable & one of the most influential companies in the history of human civilization. It is the engine powering the AI revolution. This was a fascinating & inspiring conversation, in parts super-technical on engineering of every part of the AI stack, memory, power, supply chain (TSMC, ASML, etc), in parts about leadership & psychology, and in parts personal & philosophical about life, consciousness, mortality, and human nature. It's here on X in full and is up everywhere else (see comment). Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 0:33… Related
Podcast #494 – Jensen Huang: NVIDIA – The $4 Trillion Company & the AI Revolution Related
Co-founder of NVIDIA and, as of 2026, its chief executive; the company designs the GPUs most large AI models are trained on.
open source
Their words
And if everything is proprietary, it's hard to do research and it's hard to innovate on top of, around, with. And so… Open source is fundamentally necessary for many industries to join the AI revolution.
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youtube.com
22 March
Hosts the Lex Fridman Podcast — long, unhurried conversations with scientists, engineers and public figures. Several of the interviews quoted elsewhere on this site are episodes of it.
It was an honor to hang out with Jensen Huang, CEO of @nvidia, and do a long-form podcast with him. Really fun & fascinating technical deep-dive conversation on & off the mic. One of the most brilliant & thoughtful human beings I've ever met. NVIDIA is the most valuable company in the world by market cap and is the engine powering the AI revolution. Podcast probably out tomorrow (Monday) unless I get stuck in too many interesting conversations while running around in SF ;-) PS: I haven't checked my messages in days. Sorry for slow replies 🙏 Trying to stay deeply focused at in overwhelmingly… Related
20 March
Mathematician at UCLA, working mainly in harmonic analysis and partial differential equations. Writes What's new, a long-running blog on their research, open problems and expository notes.
Their words
you know, right now we're going through uh an in um an cognitive version of the Copernican revolution where we used to think that human intelligence is the center of the universe. And now we're actually seeing that there's there's very different types of intelligence um that that that are out there uh with very different strengths and weaknesses.
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youtube.com
9 March
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.
Their words
The best book on its topic, and one of the best books on Mexican history flat out.
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marginalrevolution.com
9 February
Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World. Writes By the Numbers, working through energy and climate questions with the numbers in front of them, and revising in public when they say something unexpected.
26 January
Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.
14 January
Writer and artist, author of Steal Like an Artist; publishes a weekly newsletter and an annual list of the books he read.
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I think the absolute best book I've ever read about The Beatles is Ian MacDonald's Revolution in the Head: The Beatles' Records and the Sixties.
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austinkleon.com
12 December 2025
Environmental writer and campaigner; author of Six Degrees, The God Species, Seeds of Science and Our Final Warning.
Is it over for nuclear? As the renewables + batteries electro-tech clean energy revolution gathers pace, do we still need those hugely expensive giant reactors? Join me and Bryony Worthington for our Season 2 ender podcast episode... we went out with a bang! weplanet.org
energy Related
16 November 2025
Founding member of OpenAI and former director of AI at Tesla; creator of nanoGPT and the term "vibe coding".
energy
Their words
AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processing.
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@karpathy on X x.com
12 November 2025
Chairman and chief executive of Microsoft since 2014; joined the company in 1992 and ran its cloud business before that.
27 October 2025
Writes Nintil, long researched essays on metascience, biology, economics and whatever he has decided to read the literature on.
20 September 2025
Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.
15 August 2025
Founder of Terraform Industries and formerly a physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; writes about energy, space and manufacturing.
Their words
And the bottleneck prior to what we call the industrial revolution was uh metabolism, right? It's just like how much like oats can a human or a horse physically digest and then convert into useful mechanical output for you know their their um their peasant overlord or whatever.
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23 July 2025
Co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind, and a 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry for the protein-structure work behind AlphaFold.
Their words
And the thing that's going to be harder to deal with this time around is that I think what we're going to see is something like probably 10 times the impact the Industrial Revolution had, but 10 times faster as well. So instead of a 100 years, it takes 10 years and so that's going to make, it's like a 100X, the impact and the speed combined.
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30 June 2025
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
Their words
Most of the remaining alpha in blogs is in Marginal Revolution and LessWrong. Without either of those this blog would be a lot worse.
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thezvi.substack.com
Their words
Most of the remaining alpha in blogs is in Marginal Revolution and LessWrong. Without either of those this blog would be a lot worse.
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thezvi.substack.com
3 June 2025
Designer and co-founder of Lux, makers of Halide, Spectre and Kino; formerly a designer at Apple.
30 May 2025
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
21 November 2024
Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.
30 September 2024
Archaeologist of the Maya and the ancient Americas; directs the Maya Exploration Center and presents the ArchaeoEd podcast.
Their words
They were not ruling justly. They were ruling by force. And that can only go on so long before revolution happens. The Inca Empire, I think that would’ve gone on forever.
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youtube.com
19 August 2024
Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute. Keeps a personal site of reading lists, open questions and notes on scientific progress and how research is funded.
Their words
Revolution in The Valley -- a hundred stories from the early days of the Mac, collected by one of its creators.
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patrickcollison.com
14 April 2024
Genomics researcher and investor; writes The Century of Biology on where biotechnology is actually going.
20 February 2024
Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management, the activist investment firm he started in 2004.
America
Their words
A friend of mine sent me Christopher Rufo's book, America's Cultural Revolution, which is sort of a sociological study of the origins of the DEI movement and critical race theory. I found it actually one of the more important books I've read and also I found it quite concerning. Ultimately, DEI comes out of a kind of Marxist socialist way to look at the world.
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youtube.com
19 January 2024
Historian of invention; writes Age of Invention on where the Industrial Revolution actually came from.
Age of Invention: Unsung Materials One of my big goals for this year, as part of finally finishing my book on the causes of the Industrial Revolution, has been to get a handle on a bunch of industries of the period — ones that experienced dramatic change…
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