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Austin Vernon Blog
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
18 September
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Their words
the MacBook Pro just starts going and will literally just keep in the same performance window from now until the end of time.
15 September
From one piece @levelsio on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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Their words
I'm increasingly convinced gray hair is at least partly due to oxidative stress from the average diet now that's mostly processed food, as well as lack of heavy exercise and obesity
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korrents.com
Gray hair can be at least partly avoided by eating clean, exercising heavily, and sleeping well.Their words
you can at least partly avoid it by eating clean, exercising heavy and sleeping well I think
14 September
13 September
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korrents.com
Recursive self-improvement has already started, because AI research itself is now being automated.Their words
OpenAI and Anthropic have entered the RSI era. OpenAI Research Progress Is Accelerating Due To OpenAI Research Progress OpenAI has been opening up lately about many things. The most important issue of all is that of the acceleration and automation of AI R&D.
12 September
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korrents.com
The era of heavy U.S. involvement in the Middle East has been a disaster for U.S. power and prestige and should end.Their words
But overall, the era of heavy U.S. involvement in the Middle East has been a disaster for U.S. power and prestige, and it’s time for that era to end.
11 September
9 September
7 September
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Usesrcmnd.app
muse sparkTheir words
The 29(!!) automated translations of the Omarchy website are being powered by @AIatMeta's Muse Spark model running as a post-commit hook on GitHub.
4 September
3 September
1 September
31 August
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korrents.com
The US federal government will eventually impose heavy-handed control over the internet.Their words
Sometimes I get super nervous that someday the US government is really going to fuck with the web. Like they are going to decide they just don't have enough control over it and are going to get really heavy-handed somehow.
19 August
From one piece From Chrome DevTools to AI Engineering, with Addy Osmani 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Letting automated loops build everything without guardrails on blast radius and on quality is a recipe for disaster.Their words
But, simply just having your loops build everything without having some guardrails around the blast radius without having guardrails around how you think about quality, I think is a recipe for disaster.
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Their words
the first is cognitive debt. So the more that you use AI, it's it's sort of the erosion of your ability to have good memory and have good understanding of the problems that you're working on. And the natural follow-up to that is cognitive surrender, which is where you, you know, you blindly give in to whatever the AI says as your answer.
14 August
From one piece Travis Kalanick: How AI Will Transform the Physical World 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Once mining is automated end to end, a mining company is nothing but the owner of some real estate.Their words
Will mining get automated? And if it does, not just the movement of the materials, but every part of mining. Then what is a mining company? It just owns real estate.
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Their words
But if you're digitizing the physical world, you're treating atoms like bits. And you're like, well, I know that CPU manipulates the bits. What manipulates atoms? That's manufacturing or digitized manufacturing.
11 August
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Their words
I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033
30 July
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Their words
Um but I think there's no uh you know real impediment to making that be a much more automated loop where the model itself decides it's going to explore or maybe with a nudge from some people uh at the various highest level like oh why don't you try some new ideas around model architectures that incorporate this and then it will go run lots of experiments uh see which ones work and then those will get incorporated at a much more rapid rate
27 July
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Their words
we're on the path to fully automating the maintenance of our apps by doing this. And this is again hundreds of agents running every day, sometimes thousands of agents every day. It's doing the work of you know, dozens or hundreds of engineers.
26 July
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korrents.com
The simple work gets automated away, but the hard sciences and the places where they intersect never will.Their words
I think the simple stuff is going to get automated away, but the hard problems, the hard sciences, um physics, chemistry, biology, uh you know, computer science, uh computer engineering, systems thinking, uh you know, all and and particularly the domains that are intersecting, uh those hard problems will never go away.
25 July
17 July
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Their words
the increasing unreasonableness of an electorate that wants all its groceries in one bag and also doesn't want the bag to be heavy is a primary driver behind permanently low approval of politicians in both parties
9 July
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Their words
you've got these other generalists doing design, you've got engineers doing design, product staff doing design, but I'm actually pretty long on design or designers because they tend to have taste and I think that is something that is much more difficult to imagine being automated away.
6 July
1 July
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Their words
My response is that that's a statement by someone who doesn't understand software engineering. Coding is part of what you're doing, but it's only a small part of what you're doing.
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
then the quantity of everything that's not a ballerina, say, goes to infinity, but our the marginal utility in that stuff goes to zero faster than the quantity is rising.
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Their words
I do think there's this qualitative shift that we I think we agree is coming, which is that there will be at least some goods whose network-adjusted capital share goes to one, right? Because the whole supply chain can be automated and there's no part in it that we care intrinsically about having a human do. Um, so that'll be a, you know, that'll be a qualitative shift. Interestingly, the implications of that shift for the overall capital share are ambiguous
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Their words
there's a sense in which nothing's yet been completely automated. If you look at the network-adjusted factor shares of a good, which is to say you look down the supply chain and say not just like the final step, but how much of that is done by capital and labor, but what went into the machines that can automate that final step. You'll find that labor's adding a lot of value down the supply chain.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Something like the relational sector, which is what I defined as, um, you know, basically services and goods where the fact that the human was in the loop was actually part of the value of that product.
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Their words
I think in some ways like one of the worst scenarios is a drip scenario because of the political economy piece. Right? Because like you know, people essentially what you what you might see is like people not really being unemployed in mass, but kind of like moving into sectors that pay them less money, kind of basically getting uh what happened with phone operators in in in the mid-century of the of the between 1920 and 1940, phone operators were completely automated, right? But it took 20 years even though the technology existed.
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Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
24 May
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korrents.com
Automation is a lie: every automated thing needs a human on top of it making sure it is working.Their words
Automation is a lie. Um in the sense that every time you automate something, in order to make sure the automation is working well, you need a human on top of it like making sure that it's working well.
20 March
From one piece Skill Issue: Andrej Karpathy on Code Agents, AutoResearch, and the Loopy Era of AI 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But okay, they shouldn't actually be enacting these ideas. There is a queue of ideas and there's maybe an automated scientist that comes up with ideas based on all the archive papers and GitHub repos and it funnels ideas in or researchers can contribute ideas, but it's a single queue and there is workers that pull items and they try them out.
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Their words
And I've gotten to a certain point and I thought it was like fairly well tuned and then I let auto research go for like overnight and it came back with like tunings that I didn't see.
19 March
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Their words
In the world of high-stakes digital strategy, the “average user” is a dangerous statistical artifact.
15 March
13 March
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Their words
As we move from, you know, hey, [clears throat] these companies are selling tokens where they provide the entire uh reasoning chain and all that to uh selling automated, you know, white collar work, right? Automated software engineer, send them the request, they give you the result back and there's a bunch of thinking on the back end that they don't show you. The ability to distill out of American models into Chinese models will be harder.
2 March
12 February
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Their words
So, so, people who try to use like, you know, things like Gas Town or all these other orchestrators, where they wanna o- automate the whole thing, I feel if you do that, it misses style, love, that human touch. I don't think you can automate that away so quickly.
22 January
From one piece Alignment is not solved 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the goal we need to achieve is so much easier: we just need to build a model that’s as good as us at alignment research, and that we trust more than ourselves to do this research well because it’s sufficiently aligned.
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korrents.com
Recursive self-improvement has already started, because AI research itself is now being automated.Their words
We are starting to automate AI research and the recursive self-improvement process has begun.
1 January
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Their words
By contrast, AI is increasingly matching the general cognitive profile of humans, which means it will also be good at the new jobs that would ordinarily be created in response to the old ones being automated.
1 December 2025
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Their words
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Sublime TextTheir words
After many years, Sublime Text remains one of my favourite code editors. I still often use it to edit huge files or to make heavy edits through its powerful find and replace feature.
26 November 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
Leaving AmericaTheir words
Leaving America. This is a 12-part podcast on the logistics, benefits, and challenges of leaving the United States. Oh, no reason. (B+)
20 November 2025
18 November 2025
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Their words
Very often, learning skills that are automated in practice is a necessary stepping stone to cultivating uniquely human skills.
8 November 2025
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korrents.com
Automation is a lie: every automated thing needs a human on top of it making sure it is working.Their words
That's great, but I don't think it can replace a human poking at virtual machines; my experience with EC2 is that images break in all sorts of wild ways, and nothing beats a human for saying "huh, I have no idea what's going on here but something seems weird".
31 October 2025
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korrents.com
Orion is too heavy for any rocket that exists to carry it to low lunar orbit and bring it home.Their words
Even for $5.2b per launch, Orion is so overweight that there does not exist a booster nor an upper stage that can launch it to Low Lunar Orbit and return it to Earth.
NASA’s Orion Space Capsule Is Flaming Garbagecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com
17 October 2025
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Their words
I do, but it's business as usual because we're we're in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades. And when you look at GDP, it's basically the GDP curve that is an exponential weighted sum over so many aspects of the industry. Everything is gradually being automated has been for hundreds of years.
13 October 2025
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Their words
Over the past few decades, journal editors and peer-reviewers have increasingly insisted that papers must present large datasets that have been treated using complex statistical methods in order to make even the mildest claims about what caused what.
26 September 2025
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Their words
We don't have any methods that are good at that. What we have are people um try different things and they they settle on something that that uh a representation that that transfers well or they generalize as well. But we have no we don't have any automated techniques to promote. we have very few automated techniques to promote transfer and they're not none of them are used in in modern deep learning.
1 September 2025
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korrents.com
Tablets will not replace desktop computers for complex, resource-intensive professional work.Their words
So while iPadOS has obviously gotten more capable, I don't see it displacing the Mac desktop as the place where the heavy lifting gets done.
25 August 2025
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Their words
Bigger changes always get tests. Automated ones usually aren’t great, but the model almost always finds issues when you ask it to write tests IN THE SAME CONTEXT. Context is precious, don’t waste it.
24 August 2025
18 August 2025
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Their words
if you tell what what jobs are most likely to be automated with the current generation of technology, you would probably put software engineering right at the top. The people building this technology or building the technology that is disrupting their own profession.
22 June 2025
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korrents.com
LLM-based evaluation methods are more reliable and nuanced than traditional automated metricsTheir words
This is why model-based evaluation is increasingly popular-it offers more reliable and nuanced evals than traditional metrics.
9 June 2025
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korrents.com
The most human aspects of product management are the least likely to be automated by AI.Their words
But the human stuff that actually matters most in PM'ing is the least likely to be automated by AI.
A How to Hire a Product Manager Retrospectivebringthedonuts.com
28 May 2025
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korrents.com
Drug enforcement cut casual use and barely touched heavy users, who account for most of the drugs consumed.Their words
But by the available evidence, the War on Drugs was far less successful at reducing use among the “hard core” of users, mostly meaning people addicted to their drug of choice.
What Was The War on Drugs? Part Vthecausalfallacy.substack.com
25 March 2025
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Their words
This was obviously highly automated and designed to immediately export the list before the victim could take preventative measures.
7 March 2025
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Their words
Vibe coding can execute instructions, but deciding what the software should do and why is not automated. Product managers and designers must still do user research, market analysis, and creative brainstorming. In that sense, vibe coding changes the implementation phase more than the planning phase of the product lifecycle.
2 October 2024
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Their words, before
The required organizational transition is equivalent in scope and difficulty to the Apollo program, and will be made or broken during the tenure of the next NASA administrator.
Their words now
At the time I was optimistic, now I am not.
13 September 2024
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korrents.com
Mastodon's web client is a heavy React app that breaks without scripting and loads slowly on old hardware.Their words
when you send someone a link to a post, they can't read it without loading the entire Mastodon frontend app into their browser, which will is a monster React codebase that will break if they have scripting disabled and also can take up to 30 seconds on older hardware.
16 June 2024
4 April 2024
14 December 2023
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Their words
That will be a marker of success when you can have a really valuable space company started in a dorm room, then we know that we've built enough infrastructure so that ingenuity and imagination can really be unleashed.
11 May 2023
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Their words
Ships are great at carrying bulky and heavy stuff with minimal cost and energy usage. We need a battery chemistry that leans into that and sacrifices performance to reduce cost.
Why Battery Powered Cargo Ships are Compellingaustinvernon.site
1 March 2023
12 January 2023
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