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Tomasz Tunguz x.com
AI consumption is not a smooth curve anyone can extrapolate : it arrives in three waves, each an order of magnitude larger than the last. The second one has already broken. The third is on the horizon.
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18 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Some coastal regions see bigger COVID waves in summer than in winter, unlike colder regions that peak in winter.Their words
The West, like California and Hawaii, has bigger waves in summer than in winter.
7 September
From one piece The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held 2 beliefs · levels.io
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The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!
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korrents.com
Changing your mind in light of new facts should be celebrated rather than held against you.Their words
The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!
28 August
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But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).
7 August
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I believe current techniques are 4-6 orders of magnitude away from optimality in terms of data efficiency and test-time compute efficiency. But far future AI will be near-optimal.
7 July
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korrents.com
Climate models are underestimating how intense heatwaves become at a given level of global warming.Their words
the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.
4 July
30 June
9 June
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a more common trait that's related in the entrepreneurial world is obsessive learning like constant learning because the disruptions that allow for the technology waves that allow for companies to be disruptive and take market share from an incumbent are all tied to something dynamic that's happening on the edge.
1 June
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If AI-driven labor displacement ends up being large in magnitude and permanently drives down the demand for labor, it will likely be necessary to go beyond mere incentive programs to long-term income support for a significant fraction of the labor force.
15 April
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Pick your ASIC team where you can say I can bet the farm of I can bet my entire business that you will be here for me every single year. Your cost, your token cost will decrease by an order of magnitude every single year. I can count on it like I can count on the clock.
7 April
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Well, nothing has hit with the magnitude of AI. That's I mean, this is a a whole size difference from anything that we've faced before.
23 March
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You know, our computer price is going up, but our token generation effectiveness is going up so much faster that token cost is coming down. It's just coming down an order of magnitude every year.
13 March
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and even if you take a generous interpretation of 128 * 8 gig transfers, you're at 128 gigabytes a second for the same shoreline versus 2 and a half terabytes a second. There's a there's an order of magnitude difference in bandwidth per edge area.
18 February
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Extrapolators have a remarkable track record in the AI field, being repeatedly early to trends and capabilities that empiricists believed were still decades away.
25 January
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It's just that it caps this price and this value that is they perceive that you do. Whereas if you deliver more of the value that they already value, it's I don't want to say uncapped completely, but like the cap is maybe an order of magnitude higher than saving.
6 January
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Cycles are so hard to predict, because it’s easier to forecast in straight lines.
1 January
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With AI, he's trying he's targeting 3 to five million in revenue per rep. 3 to 5 million. Honestly, if this was three or four years ago for a similar company, it would be 3 to 500K. That's an order of magnitude more efficiency.
16 October 2025
5 October 2025
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And it's like the growth experimentation is more the the the slow and steady or fast and steady, I should say, uh approach where you're just continually iterating. You're making the product experience better, but then every so often, right, there's a big wave that comes in. you can quadruple your, you know, registrations overnights and yeah, you'd be a fool not to take advantage of that.
27 July 2025
5 May 2025
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So the idea is that they’re closer to something that you would want to map as a sound, than it’s something as a picture.
30 April 2025
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The biggest limitation that's built up over time is the single-threaded nature of game simulation in Unreal Engine. We run a single-threaded simulation. If you have a 16 core CPU, we're using one core for game simulation and running with the complicated game logic because single-threaded programming is orders of magnitude easier than multi-threaded programming.
16 March 2025
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"Direction is more important than magnitude"-it's usually better to have a lower-velocity project that works on the right things, than a higher-velocity one that's pointed at the wrong goal.
22 April 2024
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And the punchline is the equation is much smarter than Albert Einstein because Albert Einstein did not know about the Big Bang, he didn’t know about gravitational waves, he didn’t know about black holes but his equation did.
23 December 2023
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The cost to discover and develop a drug today is orders of magnitude higher than in the 1950s. Despite this, the probability that a drug entering clinical trials will eventually reach the market has hardly improved in the intervening years.
5 September 2023
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You can drive about 150 times as far from a solar-powered electric car compared to using corn bioethanol.
6 June 2023
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an acre of solar panels generates as much energy as 100 acres of corn grown for ethanol.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
18 January 2023
8 January 2023
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Taken together, there is an argument to be made that AVs should be safer than human drivers by about a factor of 10 (being a nice round order of magnitude number) to leave engineering margin for the above considerations.
5 May 2021
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