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Their words
the value of standard social science approaches, which attempt to discover long term regularities, is likely to depreciate in relative terms until the system settles down again.
Related posts
Robin Hanson x.com
Most of who is willing to debate whom is judgments of relative status. We'll debate someone much higher, but not much lower.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
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Their words
lossy self-improvement remains my baseline on the trajectory of progress, and the increased discussion of extinction risk seems very misplaced
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korrents.com
Anthropic prices its Claude subscription plans as loss leaders relative to its own API rates.Their words
The subscription tiers are still enormous loss leaders: $20/month for your first $200/month of tokens at API rates for the "Pro" tier, and $100 or $200/month for your first $1500 or $3000/month of tokens at the "Max 5x" or "Max 20x" tiers.
17 September
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Their words
I don’t know what odds I’d give, but I’m probably bullish on the odds of substantive regulation passing relative to the conventional wisdom.
15 September
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korrents.com
Relative to historical norms, the market is not pricing any major change in cybersecurity.Their words
But the crucial point is that, relative to the historical norm, the market is not really pricing ANYTHING big to change.
Callum Williams on cybersecurity pricesmarginalrevolution.com
14 September
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korrents.com
Small disadvantages relative to others hurt more than equivalent small advantages help.Their words
It's unfair, not only materially, but psychologically. The bad we feel about small disadvantages is greater than the good we feel about small advantages.
11 September
7 September
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Their words
To my mind, if progressive policy hopes to engage with such voters at all - and it is open question whether it should - it must address not just the material realities of relative economic disadvantage, but above all the "outsider" credentials of the AfD.
6 September
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Their words
The market cap weights make sense relative to the fundamentals.
5 September
1 September
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Their words
So, I do think that if it happens to be like on the very fast and chaotic end, that would be a relative benefit to this rogue swarm compared to humans. But it's not obvious that it gets caught if it takes twice as long versus half as long.
21 August
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
17 August
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Their words
open models are still incredibly useful, but fill a long-tail ecosystem relative to the closed counterparts that have monopoly ownership stakes in the most valuable areas like knowledge work collaboration, drug discovery, SWE, etc.
11 August
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Their words
Second, I think ML is a very shallow domain relative to math. So I think in math there's much more of a you find some true deep abstraction um and then like that like if you really understand that thing which is hard to understand then you get somewhere
3 August
31 July
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Their words
Um, as I speak, the number of new businesses starting on Stripe is up around a bit under, but around 2x year-over-year, um, which again is the largest relative jump, uh, we've seen.
23 July
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korrents.com
People tend to unconsciously overestimate how much they personally contribute to shared work compared to others.Their words
In unconscious overclaiming, we unconsciously overestimate our contributions relative to others.
22 July
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Their words
Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened.
29 June
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Their words
Well, PRC HSR construction costs relative to the amount of tunneling aren't particularly low. France's are lower; Germany's are inconsistent, depending on whether money is wasted on excessive tunneling or on other things.
15 June
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Likedrcmnd.app
gemma-4-12b-qatTheir words
Gemma-4-12b-qat just came out but I've already also really been impressed with its performance relative to its size.
5 June
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Their words
The value of bureaucracies will go down, and the value of founders will go up.
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
here prices are adjusting in this interesting way that too many macro models don't allow for, right? So, that what what a what's happening is what would be called investment specific technical change where yeah, the price of capital is like falling relative to the price of consumption instead of like the standard doing the standard macro thing of saying there's just output.
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Their words
the capital stock could grow quickly, but the price of capital goods relative to consumption goods could be falling faster than the capital stock is growing.
2 May
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Their words
This post is about whether data centers waste the land they’re on relative to what they compete with, and my claim is that they mostly don’t compete with things we need more of (housing) and mostly compete with things we need less of (farmland).
24 April
11 March
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Their words
Another way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
1 March
28 February
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Their words
Many AI researchers are overly focused on risks from model misalignment, and will be in for a rough surprise when havoc arises from other layers of the stack.
22 February
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Their words
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
1 December 2025
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korrents.com
Bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market capitalization is still early relative to its long-term adoption potential.Their words
In my view, Bitcoin at a ~$2 trillion market capitalization remains rather early.
18 September 2025
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Their words
You don't even need to predict the future that well. If you just live in everyone else's relative future, which really is just a couple of um high conviction high courage uh update to beta clicks. It's not that hard to live in the future.
8 September 2025
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korrents.com
Education can raise how much everyone knows, but it almost never changes who is ahead of whom.Their words
Decades of grading data; standardized test scores; cross-sectional, longitudinal, observational, and experimental studies; along with many other types of ancillary and convergent evidence, ultimately tell the same story: education can raise the absolute performance of most students modestly, but it almost never meaningfully reshuffles the relative distribution of ability and achievement
1 July 2025
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Their words
People are more likely to have kids if it’s FUN - relative to alternatives. As entertainment-technology improves, it generates a tantalising menu of ways to spend our lives.
21 January 2025
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Their words
The relative absence of pre-colonial states meant that the newly independent African states were largely European inventions; modern Kenya, for instance, inherits the boundaries of British East Africa, which was created by pulling together the Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin, and Kamba ethnic groups.
3 September 2024
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Their words
I argue that over the past 30+ years markets have become less informationally efficient in the relative pricing of common stocks, particularly over medium horizons.
4 August 2024
30 June 2024
14 February 2024
31 January 2024
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korrents.com
There is no objective level of wealth: how rich you are is always a judgement made against someone else.Their words
There is no such thing as an objective level of wealth. Everything is relative to someone else.
23 January 2024
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Their words
As I’ve written in each of my previous letters, the party’s strangling of free expression has rendered China into a pitiful underperformer relative to Japan and South Korea in the creation of cultural products.
11 May 2022
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Their words
There is essentially zero correlation - the metros with the largest rent increases had added population / added housing ratios no different than metros with smaller rent increases.
1 December 2021
Nothing matches.
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