What we must realize is that the current preference cascade, on the need to Pace the Frontier, is insufficient. If we are to make it out of this alive, we will have to do better.
So long as Canada is irrevocably plugged into the US economy, military and other arrangements, it's liable to get stuck with choices that run counter to its national interests.
Strong liability enforcement could be helpful in the AI debate. If your agent swarm goes rogue, you’re liable. If your weakly protected model gets jailbroken, you’re liable. If you serve a weakly protected OSS model, you’re liable.
judges and juries have begun to accept the argument that platform design is not covered by either of those, and companies can be punished for harmful features.
And I do think some of that is positive and energizing, but I also think you can certainly go too far with it, and I also think the current pace is not sustainable.
An analysis by the AI Security Institute found that the capabilities of frontier models (i.e., from OpenAI and Anthropic) are roughly doubling every few months, and this doubling rate has actually gotten faster over time.
We care very deeply about AI safety. We believe the entire field will have to coordinate on shared safety standards, but will act unilaterally in the meantime.
We expect confidence in safety to increasingly set the pace of AI progress.
Something intertwined with this story, which I stumbled upon when thinking about agents, is how your pace of understanding won't increase by using agents.
AI is developing at a very rapid pace, far more rapidly than most outside of the industry fully understand, and far more rapidly than almost anyone in the industry predicted.
So one of the things is that the pace of development is definitely accelerated. One thing I wonder the pace of business hasn't accelerated though and that mismatch is going to become more and more apparent.
When government can't act at the speed of the technology, the consequential decisions still get made, but by the companies building it rather than the public's representatives.
And again, I mean, the the theory isn't that we're going to cure the diseases. We're not. um it's that we want to help accelerate the pace of progress for the whole scientific field.
Um I think at least this year we're going to see margins for the model vendors go up a lot, right? Because they're so capacity constrained, they have to demand destroy demand, right? there is there's no way they can continue anthropic can continue at the current pace without destroying demand.
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
a worry I have is that the growth rate could be like 50% in Silicon Valley and, you know, parts of the world that are kind of socially connected to Silicon Valley and, you know, not that much faster than its current pace elsewhere. And I think that'd be a pretty messed up world.
The story is very intriguing. Humanity finds a dead body on the moon. The caveat? The body is 50,000 years old. The story starts slow, but then the pace becomes phenomenal. Highly recommended.
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
I suggest using a text-to-image generator like DALL-E 3. However you feel about synthetic media, the pace of improvement is readily apparent from a single prompt
Arguably the single unit on this entire post with the most bang for the buck, the COROS Pace 2 is a full multisport watch that can do swim/bike/run/triathlon, but even more than that
While this Garmin watch lacks some of the triathlon features the COROS Pace 2 has, it makes up for it with added running features like PacePro and in the case of the 245 Music, well, music.
This incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.
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