Started work at Meta this week. My job is to make amazing AI products that billions of people love to use. It won't happen overnight, but a few days in, I'm feeling confident that great things are ahead.
Said another way, for every person who is pretty sure that God doesn’t exist, there are six who are fairly certain of the existence of a Higher Power. Non-believers are statistically rare.
And as a result of identifying that person in a lineup, that person then replaces what they actually saw. So our memory can be contaminated just like any form of evidence could be contaminated.
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
I think Opus 4.5 was the first one that earned my trust. Like I'm very confident now that for classes of problems that I've seen it tackle before, it's not going to do anything stupid.
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
I see this as the strongest argument against the better futures perspective, and the reason why I don’t feel confident that work on Flourishing is higher-priority than work on Surviving, rather than merely in the same ballpark.
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
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